BTRTN 2020 Vision: Biden and Bernie Set the Pace in the Polls, and Define the Ideological Spectrum

[tgards79]

BTRTN gives a fulsome election update, complete with all the numbers:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-2020-vision-biden-and-bernie-set.html

[McCamy Taylor]

1. Political analysis.

No Divide and Conquer, no Kneecapping. This article strikes me as "financial news" in that financial news attempts to be as accurate as possible since people make investments based upon it. Rather than propaganda news which is an accurate as a three dollar bill.

[tgards79]

2. Not exactly sure I understand this comment

It is attempting to be accurate and objective with respect to the data.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Numbers are not popular around here

Subjectivity dominates, along with overreaction. Threads like this are destined to plunge. I started many numerical threads in my early years on this site. Eventually it simply wasn't worth it. Guys like jiacinto would respond and ask logical questions. Once he was gone I might as well have been sending an email to myself.

By far the most valuable reference on that site is the so-called Trumpometer on bottom right. It is an examination of how the economy and other numerical variables have fared since Trump has been in office. He has a positive number of +23 right now, which is less than half of Obama's net over 8 years but still it should serve as warning that Trump is hardly the easy out that many here are assuming and forecasting.

Bush ended up with a disastrous number over 8 years, which is the reason Obama and any Democrat would have cruised in 2008. Situational influence is everything. There is no way Obama manages that 52.9% in 2008 and carries states like Indiana and North Carolina without the lousy numbers Bush produced including the collapse late in 2008. I will always bemoan the lost opportunity with Hillary in 2008. She needed a situational boost, while Obama could have carried a more balanced environment like 2016.

[tgards79]

4. Thanks for this....

...and glad you like the Trumpometer. You are right on in terms of what it is showing and what it means. And it is now down from +23 to +17!