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Undecided 49%
Kamala Harris16%
Joe Biden8%
Bernie Sanders8%
Elizabeth Warren6%

Fri Mar 15, 2019, 01:54 PM

 

Beto (and Castro) can run for both president and Senate

I don't support either at this time for the nomination (and I'm Texan). Both are a little too close to the center for my taste; don't have the experience I'm looking for. Beto couldn't beat Ted Cruz here. And Cruz couldn't beat trump.

That said ....

Either would make excellent running mates for the right nominee. Maybe not Biden (though that's been rumored in Beto's case; better odds for Julian, best odds for Stacey Abrams) or Sanders, perhaps Kamala or Liz Warren, Amy Klobuchar, or even Cory Booker should one of those emerge victorious from the primaries. (I'm not betting on a brokered convention just yet.)

There's an interesting quirk in Texas that Twitterians seem to have overlooked yesterday, and that's the LBJ law. It means that both Beto and Castro can run for both president and US Senate (against John Cornyn) next year. I fully expect both to avail themselves of this.


The conversation so far has been presented as an either-or — that if O’Rourke runs for Senate, he’d be out of the presidential race. But both O’Rourke and Castro would be eligible to be on the Texas ticket for Senate and for president or vice president, if they so desired. Texas law prevents candidates from filing for more than one office, except for that LBJ exemption. And the exemption in the Texas Election Code is broader than history might indicate: “This section does not apply to candidacy for the office of president or vice-president of the United States and another office.”


So while I do not think either man can capture the nomination, one would be a strong ticket mate for the right nominee. And the other can very probably win the US Senate primary (although I'm also supporting the progressive Democrat in that race).

My point here is that with Beto and Castro both on the top of the 2020 ballot, Texas turns blue. And the GOP loses Texas, the White House, the Senate ...

Even George Will knows this.

Your thoughts?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Reply Beto (and Castro) can run for both president and Senate (Original post)
PDittie Friday OP
RandySF Friday #1
brooklynite Friday #2
Awsi Dooger Friday #3
Amimnoch Friday #4

Response to PDittie (Original post)

Fri Mar 15, 2019, 02:17 PM

1. Texas is a small country

 

A stawide race requires 100% commitment.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Fri Mar 15, 2019, 02:21 PM

2. That worked so well for Lloyd Bentsen...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
John Hickenlooper

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Fri Mar 15, 2019, 08:56 PM

3. Beto will never run for both offices

 

He wisely pursued presidential because senate was a near-certain defeat. If Beto gets knocked out early in the primaries this is hardly a Marco Rubio situation where he can turn to the consolation senate race and instantly be a huge favorite. Just the opposite. The luster would be gone. It is doubtful Beto would be as energized or competitive. Beto would be better served hanging around to see if he becomes the vice presidential pick.

Some of George Will's numbers are good but he leaves out some important aspects. It is true the Texas electorate is heavily urban and suburban but the urban voters are not nearly as dependably blue as the rest of the nation. We always bleed at least 6-10% in Texas compared to urban support level elsewhere. Even Beto fared 6% worse...59% in urban areas compared to Democrats 65% nationally.

Then I never fully respect anyone who leaves out the liberal/conservative realities. Nothing changes until that ratio becomes favorable.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Beto O'Rourke

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Response to PDittie (Original post)

Fri Mar 15, 2019, 09:11 PM

4. In TX, Cruz beat 45 by a much larger margin than against Beto.

 

If Cruz, Cornyn, or another Texan was in the WH or in the VP seat, I’d agre on the chance to carry texas, especially after the indicators of the 2018 mid-term.

However, even though Cruz isn’t highly popular here, consider 2016 Republican Primary results:
Cruz trounced orange hitler 43.8% to 26.7% - 17 points.
Against Beto in 2018, Cruz did win, but by 50.9% to 48.3% - less than 3 points.

The skinny? Cruz is not popular in Texas, but 45 is even less popular. Texas is NOT MAGA country. We do have an element of it, but they don’t dominate like other red states by any stretch. Beto CAN turn Texas in a run against 45.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Beto O'Rourke

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