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Undecided 37%
Elizabeth Warren19%
Joe Biden14%
Kamala Harris9%
Bernie Sanders8%

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:14 AM

 

Economist/YouGov JB 21 (-1) EW 20 (+4) BS 16 (+3) KH 8 (-) Beto 5 (+3) PB 5 (-3)


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
Reply Economist/YouGov JB 21 (-1) EW 20 (+4) BS 16 (+3) KH 8 (-) Beto 5 (+3) PB 5 (-3) (Original post)
BeyondGeography Aug 14 OP
bluewater Aug 14 #1
highplainsdem Aug 14 #2
BeyondGeography Aug 14 #3
bluewater Aug 14 #4
BeyondGeography Aug 14 #7
bluewater Aug 14 #12
bluewater Aug 14 #5
bluewater Aug 14 #6
highplainsdem Aug 14 #19
bluewater Aug 14 #21
highplainsdem Aug 14 #20
bluewater Aug 14 #22
highplainsdem Aug 14 #24
bluewater Aug 14 #28
crazytown Aug 14 #8
bluewater Aug 14 #9
highplainsdem Aug 14 #25
BeyondGeography Aug 14 #10
crazytown Aug 14 #11
bluewater Aug 14 #14
BeyondGeography Aug 14 #15
highplainsdem Aug 14 #27
bluewater Aug 14 #30
jcgoldie Aug 14 #13
essadaw Aug 14 #17
andym Aug 14 #26
theophilus Aug 14 #16
jcgoldie Aug 14 #29
dr03 Aug 14 #18
jcgoldie Aug 14 #31
dr03 Aug 14 #32
highplainsdem Aug 14 #23

Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:16 AM

1. ut oh....

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:16 AM

2. This is always one of the worst polls for Biden, and has been for a while. He's been as low

 

as 22 points before, and Warren's been as high as 19 points before, though this is the closest she''s been to him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:18 AM

3. Yeah, that's why I posted it

 



The movement in Warren’s and Beto’s numbers is meaningful tho, IMO. Bernie too.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:19 AM

4. Sign of the Times?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:26 AM

7. Fits with the vibe

 

Warren had a very positive week in Iowa. Beto showed moral leadership in El Paso. Glad it's showing up in the numbers.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:56 AM

12. +1000 "Glad it's showing up in the numbers."

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:22 AM

5. That's how it works... the lower polls will change leaders first. Seems headed that way...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:25 AM

6. RCP POLLS mistakenly lists Biden +2 higher in this poll, AGAIN.

 

They did the same thing last time too, yet the actual poll internals RCP links to shows the numbers shown in this post.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Click on the Economist/YouGovlink to go to the poll itself.

Transcribing error? Or a SINISTER pro-Biden Conspiracy? lol



It does effect the RCP Polls tracking average, so it's a shame they don't explain why this keeps happening. Only Biden's number is different than the actual poll internals.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:19 PM

19. They're using the results for Democrats, not including the results that count independents as well.

 

The independents don't affect Democratic primaries in states with closed primaries.

Warren's doing better with independents than Biden is. I posted a separate OP about the results for Democrats.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #19)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:27 PM

21. That's a bit Disingenuous by RCP, most polls include Dems and Dem leaning indies this far out

 

Since people have ample time to register for closed primaries.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:24 PM

20. Whoops, they're wrong if that's supposed to be Dems only, too, since that was 24-21.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #20)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:27 PM

22. Exactly. wtf is RCP actually doing?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #22)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:36 PM

24. RCP had Warren 2 points higher than her actual YouGov number in the previous two polls, too.

 

They had her at 20% for the poll ending July 30, when she was actually at 18%.

And they had her at 18% for the poll ending August 6, when she was actually at 16%.

I haven't compared their numbers for Biden yet, don't have those handy, but I wrote down the Warren numbers because a glance back at the YouGov polls posted here in the last month showed she'd been poling in the high teens through July, 18% twice, so 20% now isn't that huge a bump compared to those earlier numbers.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #24)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:41 PM

28. So RCP s just being generally shitty? Good catch!

 

Makes you wonder how many errors are in ALL the RCP summaries for ALL the candidates.

We caught their mistakes for Biden and now Warren because they are prominent candidates at this point in the race.

Who else has RCP mangled?

So much for the RCP Polls Tracker being a "go to" reliable source, eh?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:42 AM

8. The number I am seeing is Biden 23%

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:44 AM

9. Seems like an error, click on the pollster name to see the actual results.

 

This is the second week in a row that RCP's summary had a +2 higher number for Biden than the actual poll results RCP itself links to.

They never explain why. Only Biden's number is different.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to bluewater (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:37 PM

25. See reply 24. RCP is posting higher numbers for Warren, too.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:52 AM

10. It's 21-20; see question 20 at the link

 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c1mjtqtl2f/econToplines.pdf
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #10)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:55 AM

11. Yes. That is correct.

 

How could RCP fail to catch the error?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #11)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:58 AM

14. Second week in a row their summary had Biden +2 higher than the actual poll.

 



and that effects the RCP Polls tracking average.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #11)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:58 AM

15. It's pretty amateurish; their execution does not align with their brand

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #15)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:39 PM

27. See reply 24. They've been getting Warren's numbers higher than the actual poll results, too.

 

At least some of the time.

I had Warren's numbers handy because I looked at the internal numbers for the YouGov polls back through the start off last month. When I compared them to what RCP listed the last few weeks, they've had Warren's numbers two points higher, too, at least at times.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #27)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:45 PM

30. How many other results for other candidates has RCP been screwing up?

 

Again, we caught RCP's mistakes for Biden and now Warren because they are so prominent right now.

What about all the candidates?

So much for RCP POLLS being a reliable source.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:56 AM

13. Nice to see Beto jump a bit

 

Maybe the folks who seem obsessed with him dropping out will STFU.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:01 PM

17. +1

 

Agreed!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Beto O'Rourke

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:39 PM

26. Expect that Beto will poll better in the coming weeks

 

He made quite the impression confronting Trump in El Paso.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:00 PM

16. Encouraging. A Warren/Abrams ticket would

 

clean the Republican clock. Vote 'em (Republicans) all out!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to theophilus (Reply #16)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:44 PM

29. Love that

 

But I really think Beto would be awesome for her if she wins the nomination to help put Texas in play. Of course you are right Abrams would be a great choice and possibly also boost AA turnout.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:04 PM

18. I'm Amazed

 

Amazed at all the people who think Biden is going to do anything. This guy has never gone anywhere before and doesn't excite anybody. He's Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton. Warren, Sanders, people like that, get people to go out and vote.

And I'm neutral. I'm going to vote for whoever ends up with the nomination, but Biden is just a bad candidate.

Biden's time was in 2016. Looking that way for Sanders as well.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to dr03 (Reply #18)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:46 PM

31. Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton

 

WHat a shit post. Bash Democrats much?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #31)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 01:25 PM

32. No

 

Like I said I'm neutral.


Biden doesn't energize people to go out and vote for him.

He's a safe option. When people label you that way it's not good.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 12:28 PM

23. Btw, although Warren's # is +4 from last week, it's only +2 from her numbers in this poll last month

 

Poll ending July 9 - 17%
July 16 - 15%
July 23 - 18%
July 30 - 18%
Aug, 6 - 16%
Aug. 13 - 20%
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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