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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 09:44 AM

 

Sanders 3rd, Biden 4th in New, High-Quality California Poll

That’s why it’s significant that the best-regarded Golden State poll, taken by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), is showing a turnabout in the nomination contest. Here’s PPIC’s terse summary of its findings:

Based on an open-ended question, the frontrunners are Kamala Harris (19%), Elizabeth Warren (15%), Bernie Sanders (12%), and Joe Biden (11%). Pete Buttigieg (5%) is the only other candidate supported by at least 5 percent, while 25 percent say they don’t know.

Most election preference polls utilize lists of candidates. An open-ended poll, requiring respondents to volunteer their favored candidate, is arguably more accurate, but if anything it puts a thumb on the scale for the better-known rivals. So the fact that the best-known candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, are running, respectively, fourth and third in this survey is a big and surprising development.

Harris’s lead in PPIC’s open-ended poll is, of course, good news for the Californian. She leads the field among self-identified liberals and moderates alike and in every major region. What this really means is that whoever comes steaming out of the early states with momentum will be in a position to win a lot of delegates in California. If PPIC’s findings are any indication, the state will not be any sort of firewall for Joe Biden if he stumbles in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or South Carolina. It could, in fact, represent the death knell for his campaign. But at this point Biden leads in all the four early states. He’d better do well before the contest splits to the Left Coast. There’s no comfort there for him.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/sanders-third-biden-fourth-in-high-quality-california-poll.html


This poll was just released by the 538 A rated Public Policy institute of California:

July 14–23, 2019
1,706 California Adult Residents:
English, Spanish
MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.4% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE

Disclaimer: This is an early poll. No single poll's results , especially one this early, should be over emphasized.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply Sanders 3rd, Biden 4th in New, High-Quality California Poll (Original post)
bluewater Jul 2019 OP
crazytown Jul 2019 #1
wyldwolf Jul 2019 #2
ucrdem Jul 2019 #3
bluewater Jul 2019 #5
bigtree Jul 2019 #4
bluewater Jul 2019 #7
LakeArenal Jul 2019 #6
bluewater Jul 2019 #8
LakeArenal Jul 2019 #9
LineLineLineLineNew Reply .
bluewater Jul 2019 #14
Cha Jul 2019 #15
bluewater Jul 2019 #16
LakeArenal Jul 2019 #21
LineReply .
SouthernProgressive Jul 2019 #10
LanternWaste Jul 2019 #11
Tiggeroshii Jul 2019 #13
Tiggeroshii Jul 2019 #12
Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #17
bluewater Jul 2019 #18
Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #19
bluewater Jul 2019 #20

Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 09:51 AM

1. What is the sampling period?

 

IE - how recent is the sample?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 09:51 AM

2. A popular California senator leads in a presidential primary poll there? Color me shocked.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 09:54 AM

3. Month old news.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to ucrdem (Reply #3)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:01 AM

5. Wrong. So wrong.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 09:58 AM

4. yep, new California poll

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bigtree (Reply #4)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:09 AM

7. "If PPIC's findings are any indication, the state will not be any sort of firewall for Joe Biden"

 

Indeed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:03 AM

6. Just as I thought.

 

Polls no longer early or within points spread when Biden is behind.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LakeArenal (Reply #6)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:11 AM

8. OP was being updated to included requested information as you posted.

 

The polling date and margin of error were added as soon as I found them. They were not included in the OP article.

Those and my usual disclaimer were updated as you were making your post here.
That took me a few minutes, sorry for the delay.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Reply #8)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:12 AM

9. Or as soon as I posted.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LakeArenal (Reply #9)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 02:50 PM

14. .

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LakeArenal (Reply #6)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 02:56 PM

15. Exactly "Polls are unreliable a year before an election."

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287212804

SouthernProgressive
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #15)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 03:30 PM

16. lol General Election Polls, says that 538 article.

 

Did anyone actually read that article? Seems not.

It wasn't about primary polls, it was about... GENERAL ELECTION polls.

"Democrats desperate to beat President Donald Trump this time around have been focused on one word looking toward 2020: electability. And polls should provide a kind of guidepost. But if history is any indication, polling more than a year away from a general election is terribly unreliable. "


But hey, what does 538 know? Why even bother reading their article?



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #15)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 04:59 PM

21. Exactly...

 

But I do "Rock".. so Bluewater says..... Which of course we knew also..
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:40 AM

10. .

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287212804

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:45 AM

11. We rarely say "polls don't matter. It's too soon!!!" when they support our choice.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LanternWaste (Reply #11)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:47 AM

13. It is to soon and could change. But it does appear Biden is fading

 

To 4th in this poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:46 AM

12. Biden fading

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to bluewater (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 03:40 PM

17. And Beto's blowing everyone out of the water in TX. Home state advantage. So?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #17)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 03:42 PM

18. Great News for both Beto and Harris! LOTS of delegates in Texas and California.

 

Let's all celebrate for them both!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bluewater (Reply #18)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 03:50 PM

19. "Celebrate good times....Come on!"

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #19)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 04:02 PM

20. Nice! Love the balloon gif!

 

I love this gif, so I am going to put it in my post here so I can find it again easier.



Thanks!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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