Joe Biden, Kamala Harris in virtual tie for Democratic nomination: Quinnipiac

[tishaLA]

Sen. Kamala Harris has catapulted into a virtual tie with Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination following her widely praised debate performance last week, a new national poll released Tuesday showed.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll showed Biden with 22 percent support and Harris with 20 percent — a double-digit jump for her since the university's previous poll last month.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., were in third and fourth place in the poll, with 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fifth with 4 percent support.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/joe-biden-kamala-harris-virtual-tie-democratic-nomination-new-poll-n1025656

[LovingA2andMI]

1. Nice!!!!

The Ladies: Both Warren and Harris continue to RISE!!

[olegramps]

37. If Harris wins the nomination kiss the election hopes goodbye.

[katmondoo]

44. I am beginning to have my doubts about Harris.

I was going along with the fact that so many thought so highly of her , how great a President she would make. Well I am not so sure about Harris, some things in her past are coming to light that may show she is not as wonderful as people think.

[oasis]

50. The questions about her past don't trouble me as much as her

recent slam of a respected leader of our party.

[Thekaspervote]

45. Sad.. I would love to see a woman president.. but I agree with you completely

[LovingA2andMI]

57. Your Thoughts.....

And some said the same about Barack Obama. History proved them wrong...twice.

[olegramps]

59. I worked for Obama before the won the nomination and cast my state convention vote for him.

I supported Hilary Clinton and contend that Sanders cost her the election. For those who support Sanders, I have only one question how does his proposals on tariffs and trade agreements essentially differ from Trumps. Clinton was caught in a crossfire between Trump and Sanders that alienated the working class whose jobs had been lost or in jeopardy.

[highplainsdem]

2. Respondents still think Biden has the best chance of beating Trump: 42% Biden, 14% Harris

Respondents, however, still overwhelmingly said they felt that Biden was the candidate in the crowded field who had the best chance of beating President Donald Trump. According to the poll, 42 percent said Biden had the best change to win the 2020 general election versus Trump. Harris came in a distant second with 14 percent. Sanders came in third with 13 percent, and no other candidate reached double digits.

[highplainsdem]

3. When asked who would be the best leader: Biden 26%, Harris 16%, Sanders & Warren 15%

From Quinnipiac's own press release about the poll:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

When asked who would be the best leader, Biden again tops the field with 26 percent, an 18-point drop from the 44 percent he received the last time this question was asked. Harris finishes second with 16 percent, up from 6 percent in April. Sanders and Warren are tied with 15 percent, while no other candidate reaches double digits.

[Kaleva]

9. "an 18-point drop from the 44 percent he received the last time this question was asked."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

You are posting info about a candidate whose poll numbers are dropping.

[highplainsdem]

11. He's still ahead, even with the numbers dropping. And this poll included June 28, the

day immediately following the debate, and results of other post-debate polls that either included the 28th or didn't indicate that Harris got her biggest bump on the 28th and it dropped after that.

And look at the electability numbers I also posted, where Harris is a very distant second to Biden.

[Kaleva]

19. But the poll you are quoting is showing movement in the numbers

A snapshot of the numbers is not as significant as the trend.

[highplainsdem]

23. Well, the one trend that's been steadiest is voters thinking Biden is most electable. As for the

rest, we'll just have to wait and see.

Biden wasn't ready at the debate for that sort of attack. I really doubt he'll make that mistake again.

As for Harris...her record will get much more scrutiny, and she'll face more attacks from those immediately below her, as she rises in the polls.

[bluewater]

30. The trend is fewer and fewer people think Biden is most electable.

If that trend continues, and I personally think it will, Biden is done.

[gldstwmn]

33. Yup. He will not be the nominee I think.

I like him but 80 is a little more than I'm comfortable with to be starting a presidency.

[LeftTurn3623]

39. You do realize its really early

and she already made a massive dent in Bidens numbers. If Biden doesnt have a major comeback this could be over pretty quickly. The more people see her and the more her name is known the more her numbers will climb. That was the first time a lot of people actually saw her (and him for that matter)

[highplainsdem]

40. Yes, it's early. And you seem to be assuming she's a flawless candidate and won't be criticized by

anyone, won't come under scrutiny.

[stopbush]

52. No one is saying Kamala is flawless.

That seems to be the claim being made about Biden in certain circles.

[Cha]

51. And, I think Biden would be.

Thanks for this very important part!

[highplainsdem]

4. Best policy ideas: Warren 31%, Sanders 18%, Biden 11%, Harris 8%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

In a question about which candidate has the best policy ideas, Warren takes the lead with 31 percent, compared to 19 percent in April. Sanders is next with 18 percent, while Biden receives 11 percent, a drop from 23 percent in April. Harris is at 8 percent, and no other candidate tops 3 percent.

[Kaleva]

10. " a drop from 23 percent in April. "

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

[highplainsdem]

13. And Harris is at only 8%.

[highplainsdem]

36. Read more carefully.. This subthread is on best policy ideas, and she's at 8% there.

[gldstwmn]

42. Would he consider SOS? You know like everyone who keeps asking Kamala to be VP?

[highplainsdem]

43. I have no idea. He'd be a good SOS, but I think he'd be a better president. I really do believe

he's most likely to beat Trump.

And if we can't beat Trump, everything else is moot.

[Progressive2020]

6. Biden/Harris 2020?

Maybe Warren as a Cabinet Secretary? Mayor Pete for Secretary of State or Defense? I am currently leaning towards supporting Warren for the presidential nomination, but I do think that Biden and Kamala Harris might make a very strong team.

[Skya Rhen]

14. I will wait until the bump levels off to see the settled poll numbers...

[gldstwmn]

35. No. She doesn't want to be VP.

If you want Kamala ya gotta vote for her.

[Progressive2020]

53. I Can Understand That

But Biden might beat her in the Primaries. If Biden does win the nomination, a smart, experienced woman of color would be a great choice for VP. Harris fits the bill, even if she does not want to be VP.

Also, if Biden wins the Presidency, whoever is VP will be teed up to be the next President after him. Biden might even not run for a second term at his age, and might hand the torch over to Kamala, or whoever Biden has as VP.

[gldstwmn]

56. Whoever the nominee is should really be running for

Last edited Wed Jul 3, 2019, 08:06 PM - Edit history (1)

two terms IMO.

[Progressive2020]

60. OK

It is still good to choose a VP who can run after the President has two terms.

[highplainsdem]

7. Conclusion: Voters liked Harris's debate performace, consider Biden most electable & best leader, &

they like Warren's policy ideas best.

See the previous few replies I posted about the poll's findings, if you haven't already.

[Andy823]

8. Yes, and it will keep getting better

the people like Harris and Warren and those numbers will keep going up in their favor. It's still a long time before the first votes are cast, but once the voters get to hear from these two women, and everyone else, they will make a choice, and Harris and Warren will be in the top tier when that time comes.

[Kaleva]

17. +1

[emmaverybo]

12. If poll numbers can change this radically based on a five minute debate exchange, I think

we see that in the long run, we are in for a rocky ride. Let’s not forget to buckle up.

[Andy823]

18. This was the first time

that the country was able to see "all" the candidates, and see how they did, how they handled themselves, and who they liked the best. Things can change in the future, but this time they seemed to like Harris, and Warren, along with Biden. I really think Harris and Warren will see more increases in their poll numbers as time goes on.

[BlueWI]

21. True.

And if the popularity of all the top candidates is sustained, we dominate the news cycle and maximize fund raising, while Trump is meeting with dictators and imprisoning children.

I really think that each of the candidates brings a different focus and core group of supporters, with the excitement growing in advance of the actual primary. The more there is grassroots organizing for every candidate, the better.

[Progressive2020]

54. Inslee

I see that your current choice is Inslee. If he does not win the nomination, maybe he could be the next Administration's Climate Change Czar, or Secretary of the Department of Energy? Anyway, I like Inslee, but he is not my top choice for the Democratic Nomination at this time. Glad that he is bringing Climate Crisis front and center.

[BlueWI]

55. Thanks!

Inslee would serve well in those capacities. IMO he's an outstanding administrator but a low pizzazz candidate compared to others this cycle, perhaps. Still, he's an innovative governor with more to contribute. And you never know - no votes yet!!

[bluewater]

15. Increased visibility seems to be hurting Biden -- a lot.

The race for the 2020 Democratic nomination remains wide open.

Increased visibility seems to be hurting Biden -- a lot.

People are making their choices on more than how he answered one debate question, they are starting to examine the entire Joe Biden 2019 package.

[Skya Rhen]

16. Warren's people need to take careful note of what it takes to make it to second place. She needs

to take down the one who took her spot, and do it with the same force.

[bluewater]

20. Biden is losing support among black Democratic voters -- rapidly.

One of the more interesting facets of the Democratic primary campaign so far has been how Joe Biden, the former vice president to the first black president, has held a lead among black voters, even as two black senators are running.

Biden still leads with 36%, while Kamala Harris comes in with 24%. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders follow with 12% and 9% respectively. Warren and Sanders are about where they were in a combination of our April and May samples.

Biden's advantage though has definitely ebbed over the last few months. In our April and May combined samples, Biden led the pack among African-Americans with 49%.

Meanwhile, Harris was all the way back in fourth place with 6%. In other words, she's jumped about 20 points.
Harris' gain follows a significant uptick in endorsements from black lawmakers. Harris now leads Biden in endorsements from Congressional Black Caucus members.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/democratic-primary-poll-july-2019/h_3a4e0334aea0592739c6caab1aa3046c

[BlueWI]

25. True, and not surprising.

Biden has been out of office for three years, and before that he was vice president, which isn't as visible as one might think to all voters. In these times, political reputations from other campaigns do not last, not unless you're fully prepared to update and strengthen your brand.

The inevitability assumptions didn't serve us well in 2016. Instead, we all have to put the work in and polish the message no matter who wins the nomination.

[Thekaspervote]

46. Biden's support among AA voters went up 18% post debate... not down

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287177473 See post #42 Sam stien Twitter feed

SC is the “bellwether” for the AA vote.. take a peek here. Biden is still the very clear front runner You may have to click the state box up,and to the left as the page flips back.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

[bluewater]

49. That's not a post-debate SC Poll

I wouldn't pin my hopes on one poll taken the night of the debate, look at Harris surging in the CNN and Quinnipiac polls!

Where do you think that surge in support is coming from, hmmm?

But why quibble, over the next few weeks it will become very clear where the support of black Democrats is headed.

Hint: to Harris.

[BeyondGeography]

22. That's not her style

She kicks bankers asses in public, not those of fellow Democrats. It wears well over time. Watch.

[Skya Rhen]

27. Well, with that strategy, she will end up ceding her previously-held spot to Kamala.

As for my preferred candidate, i have confidence that Joe will be the Democratic nominee.

When they show me polls of Kamala winning the primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Nevada, Mississippi, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kentucky, Florida and other red states, then i will change my view. The delegate count is what matters...

[BeyondGeography]

29. It's hard to think of something less relevant right now

than polling from states where the candidates aren’t even campaigning and the contest is 8-10 months away.

[Skya Rhen]

32. Actually, the debates should have some sort of an impact with these red states - no?

The debates certainly impacted both the national polling and polling from Iowa, thus far. I would assume that the same would apply to other parts of the country.

Again, i eagerly await polling from the swing and red states..

[Thekaspervote]

48. State polling is very relevant see post #46 above

[Thekaspervote]

47. Indeed

[marylandblue]

38. Not her style. She won her night with a simple, passionate policy message.

If she shares a stage next time with Biden or Harris, she will do the same thing again. If she goes after Biden, it will be over the bankruptcy law. He better be prepared this time because they clashed over it when the law was written and she hasn't forgotten.

[jaceaf]

24. Kamala's visibility increase will only make this better for her

The more people hear her, the more they like her. And that's not going to change from now on. This bump is more permanent than an announcement bump. This has changed the race. I am proud of her.

[bluewater]

28. "This has changed the race. I am proud of her."

It certainly has changed the race.

Congratulations to Senator Harris for becoming a force to be reckoned with this primary season.

[duforsure]

26. Warren and Harris heading higher

While Biden and Sanders spiraling downward , and both losing support fast.

[zentrum]

31. Hope she pulls ahead.

Bring in the new energy!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. A- rated Quinnipiac poll/A- rated CNN poll/B+rated Suffolk poll

All cellphone/landline polls and show Kamala on the verge of taking the lead.