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Undecided 37%
Elizabeth Warren16%
Joe Biden14%
Kamala Harris10%
Bernie Sanders8%

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 12:52 AM

 

Bleeding Heartland: Joe Biden will probably lose Iowa

Dan Guild examines what history tells us about how to interpret the latest Iowa Democratic caucus poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register, Mediacom, and CNN. -promoted by Laura Belin

It has been two months since the last good Iowa caucus poll. This is actually unusual: you have to go back to 1996 to find a similar gap. So the latest poll by Selzer & Co (what does the Des Moines Register have against Saturday nights?) was eagerly anticipated.

Joe Biden announced his candidacy to great fanfare on April 25. Within two weeks, national polling showed him picking up between 10 and 15 points. But there is no national primary. I wrote here in March that I Biden was a VERY weak front runner based on his Iowa polling to date.

Ed Kilgore speculated around the time of Biden’s announcement that he had a “shock and awe” strategy.

Did that strategy work? Has it moved votes in Iowa?

Tonight the Des Moines Register provided its verdict: No.

This table includes only pollsters with some sort of track record. Incredibly, Biden’s performance in the most recent poll is his WORST. After all of the national publicity he has received since his announcement, the two-term vice president in Barack Obama’s administration cannot break 25 percent. (We will get to the other candidates in a moment).




...https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2019/06/08/joe-biden-will-probably-lose-iowa/#comments





Bleeding Heartland is a community blog about Iowa politics, especially campaigns and elections, state government, social, and environmental issues. Bleeding Heartland also covers presidential policies and what the Iowans in Congress are up to.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Bleeding Heartland: Joe Biden will probably lose Iowa (Original post)
progressoid Jun 12 OP
msongs Jun 12 #1
Tarheel_Dem Jun 12 #2
Drunken Irishman Jun 12 #3
Lordquinton Jun 12 #4
Orangepeel Jun 13 #22
Peacetrain Jun 13 #29
shanny Jun 13 #31
Lordquinton Jun 13 #33
stonecutter357 Jun 12 #5
still_one Jun 13 #32
SergeStorms Jun 12 #6
RelativelyJones Jun 12 #7
Hortensis Jun 12 #8
Demsrule86 Jun 13 #18
Hortensis Jun 13 #20
Demsrule86 Jun 13 #21
Hortensis Jun 13 #24
oldsoftie Jun 12 #9
honest.abe Jun 12 #10
Peacetrain Jun 12 #11
SidDithers Jun 12 #12
LanternWaste Jun 12 #13
Politicub Jun 12 #14
LibFarmer Jun 12 #15
Scurrilous Jun 12 #16
progressoid Jun 12 #17
SidDithers Jun 13 #19
MrsCoffee Jun 13 #23
JI7 Jun 13 #25
JustAnotherGen Jun 13 #26
stonecutter357 Jun 13 #27
saidsimplesimon Jun 13 #28
kurtcagle Jun 13 #30

Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 01:00 AM

1. to my eyes he leads every poll lol in a field of 20 nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 01:01 AM

2. Even better news.....

 

"Conversely, Bernie Sanders has largely stagnated. Second-place candidates do not have a good record in Iowa when they are as well known as he is."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 01:45 AM

3. So, let me get this straight...

 

On 3/6, Biden was leading Sanders by two-points in Iowa. In three months, his support dropped by three-points, while his lead over Sanders went from +2 to +8, and that somehow signals he's going to lose?

Mkay.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 03:08 AM

4. He's slipping fast

 

There's 8 months to Iowa, and those numbers bode poorly for him.

That some see it only as an opportunity to attack Sanders reveal.much about their priorities.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Lordquinton (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 11:10 AM

22. A three point drop in 2 months is fast?

 

Especially since 3 points is likely within the margin of error

You are right that 8 months is a long time, but Biden’s numbers look pretty steady to me so far
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #22)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:22 PM

29. Yep.. looks that way to me too

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #22)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:29 PM

31. Steady (in Iowa)...and soft.

 

He has universal name recognition and nostalgia for the Obama years...and that's the best he can do? There are 20+ other candidates out there, all of them have supporters...and all of those supporters know Biden but picked Somebody Else.

Nationally he was at about 30% the day he announced, rose to 41 over the next 2 weeks, and has since dropped back to 32. That's before the first debate and before all those other candidates gain wide recognition.

I don't think Joe will be the nominee.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Orangepeel (Reply #22)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 02:43 PM

33. You only see 2 months?

 

It goes for 6, and shows an 8 point drop over that time, a steady decline, with others gaining, primarily Warren.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 03:29 AM

5. let's go Joe !

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to stonecutter357 (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 02:33 PM

32. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 03:42 AM

6. It's seven months off.

 

So many things can happen in seven months it's ridiculous to make any long range projections. I think we all should calm down a bit and save our overwhelming enthusiasm for the primaries and presidential election. Trump has got everyone so wound up we're expending too much energy, too soon. He has that effect on people. I just think we should pace ourselves. Just my opinion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 03:45 AM

7. If anything, looks mostly like Warren and Mayor Pete stole Sanders' thunder.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:13 AM

8. "Shock and awe"? I recall analysts claiming he'd waited too long,

 

Last edited Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:47 AM - Edit history (1)

missed his own Biden boat. That phrase must come from their own surprise at what happened when Biden announced.

Biden's loss of that giant lead now that people are over being relieved he's in and looking around is inevitable. As inevitable as that most of the candidates scarfing up those 1 and 2%s will drop out and their support also move. But it lasted long enough to underline how glad really large numbers of voters are that he's running. An ace in the hand.

This IA blogger points out that only 4 of the last 5 frontrunners at this point won the caucuses in the end, but IA does a poor job of predicting who becomes president. Only Carter, Obama and W Bush in almost 50 years. He points out that all those who became president placed within the top 3, though, which would be expected.

I'm guessing after some mostly downs and few ups given his competition and massive forces on both sides of the planet trying to take him down, Biden will probably end up winning the nomination because: America's very familiar and comfortable with him, he is the Obama elder-statesman legacy Trump hasn't been able to destroy, and the one big goal of this election that almost everyone shares is to elect Democrats and defeat Republicans. Electability. That's demonstrated among a lot of minority voters, many of whom will presumably try to elect another candidate but be ready to shift to the person in front who seems most likely to put Democrats in power. Whoever that is.

Btw, I believe the idea of who has "electability" is overwhelmingly poll driven. For all those who imagine it's race-driven code for white male only, I invite them to imagine what would happen if Obama were in the race. ... Yes.

He'd be male, though, and that trumped big in 2008. I'd hoped electability would mean one of our redoubtable women, and in the end who knows, but early polls argue against that. No matter how angry some of us are, in general we're afraid to nominate a woman because our top female hitter, who really should have won, didn't. And we have to win.

More than half of voters in Iowa made up their mind in the last month in 2004 and 2008. Even in 2016, when there were after all only two candidates, 40 percent decided late.

Really. If 40% couldn't make up their minds then between two very different choices, who both did their best to tell them they were, and showed them, it seems they're mostly just reading national polls and echoing those.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #8)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 08:47 AM

18. This is a very good analysis...I think. I just want to win period...I am OK with any of our

 

candidates. I think Biden has the best chance due to his ties with the Midwest and the fact he has been around too long for Trump to destroy him with the usual lies...the newer candidates would be more vulnerable to such attacks.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #18)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 09:04 AM

20. So true. The swiftboaters would write the new ones new histories.

 

And for Sanders all the attacks and scandals they designed last time have been in storage. We need to shorten election seasons dramatically. Remembering when the people leading campaigns took leaves of absence from work to do it...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #20)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 09:25 AM

21. I agree...this election began way too soon...we can expect swiftboating for sure.

 

Have another cup of coffee...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #21)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 12:49 PM

24. And a donut. :)

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:27 AM

9. No polls matter at this early point. Only pollsters make money for the next year.

 

Dont ignore them, but dont put too much stock into them either.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:25 AM

10. I think these numbers look good for Biden given this is a poll of voters who will caucus in person.

 

Biden's core voters who tend to be older are probably not going to attend a raucous caucus with a bunch of aggressive supporters of other candidates trying to pressure them to change their minds. Furthermore, his numbers look very stable and given the large numbers of candidates, 24% is quite good. So what exactly is supposed to change to cause Biden to lose?

This article sounds like its written by someone who hopes he loses, not based on legitimate analysis.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:27 AM

11. You have that exactly right.. only the most ardent of us will come out on a

 

Iowa winter night.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:36 AM

12. Bookmarking...nt

 

Sid
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 10:47 AM

13. The "Polls Don't Matter This Early" crowd seems to think this poll matters this early.

 

It certainly couldn't be the correlation that they finally get infer what they want to hear without it sounding too tortured, so therefore it's now valid; that would be, well... too glaringly obvious.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 10:54 AM

14. Is he even focusing on Iowa?

 

I don't think Iowa matters as much as people want to believe it does. Unless you're an unlikely candidate, then the added visibility may help in elections to come.

And, if Biden is in the lead, why is the subject line saying he will probably lose there? Editorialize much?

Sanders does well, though. He must invest a lot of resources in the state. What a waste.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #15)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 01:57 PM

16. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #15)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 10:04 PM

17. Ha!

 

Hardly.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #15)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 09:01 AM

19. Of course it is...

 

Good post.

Sid
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #15)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 11:21 AM

23. What a shocker.

 

Not.

I'm so sick of Bernie and his negative energy. And yeah, it's his negative energy driving this. He could stop it. But not only does he let it go on, he hires people that stoke those flames as high as they can.

Just another scorched earth campaign to get material for the next book.

I mean, who wants to read a book about unity?



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 12:55 PM

25. it's true Biden may not win Iowa but neither will Sanders

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:05 PM

26. Really a non starter for me

 

2/4 NY
2/22 NV Caucus
2/29 SC
3/3 CA, VA, NC among others

We don't get to a diverse group of voters until after Iowa. Ditto NH.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:08 PM

27. Think I'll go count the Biden hit pieces on DU !

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:18 PM

28. "Keep it real"

 

Larry Wilmore, I miss his show, cast and crew.

That was my first thought on reading your thread. Even the young and talented Nate Silver avoids the hyperbole of "gloom and doom" generated by a mere snapshot of the political landscape.

Go with the flow, create a message built on the negative that slays your adversary. I know easier said than done.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Original post)

Thu Jun 13, 2019, 01:27 PM

30. Sanders in Iowa

 

I find it interesting that Iowa, being a caucus state, still has Bernie running a distant second. Warren and Sanders are also both appealing to the same high progressive crowd, and since Warren's been running a close third to Sanders (and occasionally is appearing more often as second) my expectation is that Bernie's toast unless Warren withdraws.

I still think we'll end up with a Biden/Harris ticket next year.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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