The upcoming Democratic Primary debates could have an odd effect.

[MineralMan]

A lot of people who support candidates who have low polling numbers are counting on the debates to shift some people to their favorites. That could easily happen, if those candidates turn in a great performance in the debates.

But, here's the thing: Where will those preferences come from? If they come from the current second place contenders, that will have a negative effect on those contenders attempts to get closer to Joe Biden. It could drop some (or all) of those second place hopefuls under the 15% threshhold and knock them right out of the delegate count in some or most states' primaries.

That's the risk of having 24 candidates in a primary race. Every vote that moves comes from another candidate. Here's what can happen:

Let's say there are 23 candidates, plus Joe Biden, who starts out with a substantial lead in the polls. Will his poll numbers shrink? Probably not much, if any. In fact, he could pick up a few point from the debates. Suppose, just for grins, that all 23 other candidates end up earning enough support to get a couple of percentage points in the polls. At a minimum, that would add up to 46% of people supporting a candidate other than Biden.

But, here's the kicker: It could also mean that none of the 23 had 15% of support or higher, except Joe Biden. If that held through the actual primaries, Biden would end up with all of the delegates at next summer's nominating convention.

Of course, not all 23 will end up with 2% in the polls, but you can see what might happen. If nobody ends up with 15% or more, it's game over, and Biden takes it all.

So, choose wisely if you want someone other than Biden as the nominee. Pick a candidate who might win more than 15% of support. Be strategic with your preferences. It could matter a great deal.

[4139]

1. My bet is there will be 7 candidates of fewer by Iowa, money will dry up and

Media coverage of the bottom tier will go to zero by thanksgiving

[MineralMan]

2. Well, I think you could be right about that.

Once the first debate is done, we'll see how people react in the polls. I don't think it will drop to that few that early, though. I think at least 10 of the candidates at the bottom will drop out before Iowa, but I also think there will be more than ten candidates still trying to get support, right up to Iowa, and probably through the February primaries and caucuses.

Then comes Super Tuesday, after which the field will narrow drastically. Probably down to three or four, with a clear first and second place candidate. However, if you don't have a bunch of delegates by then, your campaign is essentially over.

Still, Super Tuesday and the February events are going to lock up a bunch of delegates to the convention. We're going to see some surprising names not having 15% support as those elections and caucuses take place. People are going to say, "That's Unfair!" in substantial numbers when their favorite is clearly nonviable in the delegate count race.

[MineralMan]

3. Another note: Delegate counts will be somewhat inaccurate until

each state holds its state convention, where the actual delegates are elected. However, the estimates you'll see right after each primary will be close to the final numbers. The methodology for delegate selection varies from state to state, but the rules are well-understood by those making estimates of delegate counts.

So, you can rely on the delegate count estimates you see after each primary's results are known, but there will be minor shifts as each state convention is held.

[andym]

4. Few candidates will drop out before Iowa

Unlike previous primaries, given the Internet and the ability to cheaply campaign in Iowa, most of the candidates will likely stick around until then. Afterwards, things will move quickly.

[lark]

5. I'm eagerly awaiting the debates.

I really like Joe, but also like Liz, Mayor Pete and Kamala and don't know a lot about the western governors. I will be watching the debates intently to see who all these people really are, what they support, how quick are they, their body language, the whole schmear is going to be so exciting to me. By the 2nd day, I'll probably be on the bedroom tv as my husband will be over it, but I want to see every single minute.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

6. these debates are being advertising pretty intensely on local rw talk radio here in WI - at least on

this a.m. local news show I sometimes listen to that tries to be slightly more non partisan than the rw propagandist crapola that come on later. I see this advertising as evidence that a) Dems are already spending $$$ here in WI and wont neglect us again like last time; and b) there must be enough independents and never-trumper repubs out there for Dems to think its worth advertising on a RW radio station.

[Hortensis]

7. And how about the black voters, especially WOC?

Except for the SheThePeople conference, very little has been said about how their support is shaping up, but they're a force and very probably they will ultimately be a force for just one candidate, whatever happens before. From what I read, the overall concern of most is the same as other groups': Defeating Trump and the Republicans. Electability.

LA Times: “They are so sick and tired of being sick and tired of Trump, there’s this almost unconscious feeling they’re going to go with the candidate that is more likely to beat him,” said Ron Lester, a Washington pollster who has spent decades surveying the attitudes of black voters. For many, Lester said, “that is probably a white male,” given their deep-seated belief “that America is still a very racist place and a very misogynistic place and that a candidate who doesn’t get any white votes is probably going to lose.” Not all agree. ...

It was pretty much the same in 2008. After proving he was a viable candidate by winning Iowa, Obama gained strong black support, and with that additional bloc the presidency.

A way of saying of course that both Cory Booker and Kamala Harris could suddenly leap if either shows similar signs of electability. And our stable early lineup could suddenly look more like a pile of Jenga blocks after someone won.

Itm, we wait for the debates.

[MineralMan]

8. I have few insights into that bloc of voters.

Early polling seems to favor Biden. We'll see.

[Hortensis]

9. Yes. Approximately a half, a large amount, from

what I read. Which means his rating could tumble sharply for a while or permanently during the primary, only to climb again, then or in the GE and perhaps substantially more, if he were ultimately believed most electable as he is now.

We most of us feel that way -- electabilty is our top criterion -- which suggests the candidate (most of) the black bloc settles on could have a commanding lead heading for the convention.

[MineralMan]

10. Yes, unless something unexpected changes that bloc's opinion.

[Hortensis]

11. Yup.

[paulkienitz]

12. given the strength of the second tier candidates, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg...

I see no reason to waste any time on the 2%-polling third tier candidates. Pick the one you like best from those four. Preferably either Warren or Harris, as we can already see that it's probably going to come down to Joe against one of those two.

[BlueWI]

13. Polls are not votes.

Personally, I respect and trust the Democratic primary voters to make their own choices from among all the candidates.