The 15% rule and gerrymandering

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NC gets 122 delegates total of which 72 are given out at the Congressional district level 25 of those are from 3 districts (the heavily Democratic ones) and the other 47 come from the other 10 districts. District 1 is 52% black, 40% white, and 8% Hispanic (some overlap here). Congressman Butterfield won his district with about 70% of the vote in his last 4 elections. The black voters vote overwhelmingly for Democrats so at most 18% of the voters in that district are whites who voted for Butterfield. So the Democratic primary is 52% to 18% in terms of black vs white voters. In other words blacks outnumber whites in our primary in this district about 3 to 1. This would assume we got no Hispanic votes. Biden is likely to kill it here possibly getting all 8 delegates.

District 4 gets 9 delegates. 55% white, 33% black, 12% Hispanic (again some overlap) 5% Asian. 39% college graduates. This district has the Research Triangle, two large cities (Raleigh, Durham) three major universities (NC State, UNC, and Duke), and several exceptionally gay friendly areas (Chapel Hill, Carborro, Raleigh, and Durham). Congressman Price won this district with about 70% of the vote in the last few elections. Even if Price got 100% of the non white vote, 30/75 of the primary vote would be white so the ration would be 2 white voters to 3 non white ones. This district will be very fertile ground for whomever survives from Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. Biden could be held to 3 delegates here with the other 6 going to some combination of other candidates.

District 12 is somewhat similar to district 1. It is centered in Charlotte and is 49% black, 40% white, 15% Hispanic (clearly some overlap). The primary electorate in this district has a similar ratio to district 1 Alma Adams won with 67% of the vote. By the same metric in district 1 the split would be 49 to 18 so a bit less than that district but not insanely different. Biden should kill it here as well. He could get all 8 delegates.

District 2 is a race we really tried to win and came fairly close but not super close. We lost 51 to 45. This district gets 6 delegates. It is about 20% black 73% white. This primary electorate is about 4 black voters for 5 white ones. Biden could see a 4 to 2 or 3 to 3 split here.

This is all assuming he holds the other candidates to 15 or under over all. The rest of the districts get 4 or 5 delegates each and have black populations of 15% or fewer for the most part. In short, the 15% rule isn't a statewide thing. It is a district wide thing for 72 delegates. And in many of these states the districts are heavily gerrymandered making them radically different from each other. In these GOP districts it is a virtual certainty that at least 1 delegate per district won't be going to Biden and in the 5 person districts it could be 2. Biden could see a loss of a third of these delegates or a 32 to 16 distribution.

There are 24 delegates awarded at large. Biden would get all of those if he held all of the other candidates to less than 15%. I know this is a long post and a bit in the weeds but if Biden wins 30 to 14 to 12 to 10 (say Biden, Sanders, Warren, Pete) He wouldn't be getting 100% of the delegates. He would be getting maybe about 3/4 of them. Still a lot, but not 100%.

[Gothmog]

1. In Texas we allocate on the basis of state senate districts

Luckily these senate districts are less gerrymandered compared to congressional districts

[MineralMan]

2. Yes. In some states that will affect the outcome to some degree.

It all depends on how the state does its allocations. Some states use congressional districts. Others use other districts, like Texas, which uses state senate districts. It can get complicated, to be sure.

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3. To put some numbers to this

say Biden gets 45%, Sanders 14%, Warren 12% and Pete 12% with the rest going to the rest of the candidates. In districts 1 and 12 Biden might get all 16 delegates. But in district 4 the delegates could be more like 4,2,2,1. District 2 could split 3 Biden and 3 non Biden. The rest Biden could get 2 per district and lose either 2 or 3 in each district depending on size. Thus Biden would get not 72 delegates but 16 + 4 + 3 + 2(9) = 41 and lose 31 even while holding all competitors to under 15% statewide. He would get an additional 24 at large for a grand total of 65 to 31.