Iowa poll: Biden stretches lead over Sanders

[left-of-center2012]

The new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom survey of likely Iowa caucus goers released Saturday shows that although Biden's support registered at 24 percent — a fall of 3 percent from the last poll — he has stretched his lead to 8 percentage points over Sanders, from 2 percentage points in March.

Sanders and Warren registered at 16 percent and 15 percent respectively.

Buttigieg made a strong debut at 14 percent, or 1 percent behind Warren.

Sen. Kamala Harris remains steady at 7 percent compared with the last Iowa poll.

Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke dropped and is now at 2 percent.

The Iowa Poll, headed by pollster Ann Selzer, is a closely watched barometer of the state’s politics. Conducted June 2 through June 5, the poll surveyed 600 Iowa Democrats likely to take part in the Iowa's 2020 caucuses who their choice for president would be.



https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/08/iowa-poll-biden-democrats-2020-1358156

[Scurrilous]

1. K&R

[Peacetrain]

2. Let me second that K&R

[Agschmid]

3. It's good news for the top tier candidates, they essentially all are in the running.

Strong performance by Warren as well, good to see.

[highplainsdem]

5. Biden's basically alone in the top tier. The article says the "secondary grouping" is Warren and

Sanders and Buttigieg. So they're second tier, roughly as far behind Biden as they are ahead of Harris, Klobuchar and O'Rourke, who'd be third tier.

[BlueWI]

20. How can a person be alone in the top tier?

One person isn't a tier.

About 3/4 of those polled didn't support Biden. 24% support isn't enough to have your own tier.

[highplainsdem]

4. K&R. I checked the two previous polls by this pollster, in December and March. Basically

the lesser-known candidates have, all together, picked up more support in this latest poll. Buttigieg especially.

In the earlier polls, Biden and Sanders supporters totalled more than half of everyone polled. That's down to 40% total in this new poll, but Biden at 24% is getting 60% of that slice of those polled, while Bernie's getting 40% of that portion.

And that 60/40 split of their combined poll numbers is what the December poll also showed.

The March poll had it closer to a 50/50 split between Biden and Sanders of their combined poll numbers, with Sanders getting 25% overall to 27% for Biden.

So the lesser-known candidates are getting more attention, which you'd expect at this stage. And Biden's increasing his lead over Sanders, even though Sanders is still in second place.

Since Iowa caucus voters tend to skew more liberal, I think the current poll is encouraging for Biden.

Articles on the December and March polls:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/16/iowa-poll-caucuses-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-orourke-elizabeth-warren-register-cnn-democrat/2312541002/


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/09/election-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-harris-warren-democrats-iowa-poll/3120611002/

[Peacetrain]

7. Since he announced.. he is holding pretty solid..

It has moved beyond name recognition .. and that was alot of what was going on in the March poll I am guessing.. people are dialing in pretty hard right now..

[uawchild]

6. IOWA POLL: Progressives 45, Biden 24 ! Progressives come on strong!

A STRONG showing by progressive candidates in Iowa showed that progressive candidates speaking out for progressive issues would win the majority of the delegates!

Sanders 16%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 14%
TOTAL = 45% to Biden's 24%

This isn't a two person race yet, its not "Biden versus Sanders", its 4-5 candidates competing for delegates and the progressives just won big.

The Biden Campaign must be worried. He needs to win the nomination outright before progressives close ranks.

Nice job!

[left-of-center2012]

8. Buttigieg ?

He's not a progressive.

[uawchild]

9. Compared to Biden he is lol

Seriously, have you listened to Pete at all?

"Buttigieg, a Harvard University graduate and the son of two University of Notre Dame professors, said in an appearance at Northeastern University Wednesday that he believed in making college “dramatically more affordable” by expanding Pell Grants and incentivizing states to spend more on higher education. But he stopped short of supporting a universal program to address college affordability."

“Americans who have a college degree earn more than Americans who don’t,” he said. “As a progressive, I have a hard time getting my head around the idea of a majority who earn less because they didn’t go to college subsidizing a minority who earn more because they did.”

We progressives are a big tent, we feel that there are many good progressive ideas and hope the best ones win out. So, Yeah, Pete is a progressive.

And, I might be wrong but I don't think I am, I just can't see Pete's supporters backing a conservative if Pete doesn't get the nomination himself.

And like being the first openly gay Presidential candidate isn't progressive enough for you, what can I say?

Like I said, we progressives are a big tent.




Progressives 45, Biden 24!

woooo

[left-of-center2012]

12. "I just can't see Pete's supporters backing a conservative"

No one said that.

Buttigieg ? Put him down as liberall but no Progressve.
And Progressives a 'big tent'?

Nah

[Blue_true]

19. The issue is the progressive are splitting votes.

At some point, to rival Biden they need to get behind one candidate.

[Cha]

10. Good on Joe Biden and his supporters!

[SunSeeker]

11. K & R

[sharedvalues]

13. TERRIBLE HEADLINE.

Here’s what this poll REALLY shows:
Biden lost ground: a few points. 3.
Bernie lost ground: even more points. 9.
Warren gained ground: around NINE points
Buttigieg gained ground: about THIRTEEN points.


Warren and buttigieg are the ones who should be in the headline here. Both Biden and Bernie lost points. Biden isn’t the story here. Not at all.

[left-of-center2012]

14. Biden is the story

"Biden has stretched his lead to 8 percentage points over Sanders"

[sharedvalues]

15. 3 pt Biden loss. NINE pt Bernie loss. NINE pt Warren gain

Look at that and tell me that the first guy should be the story.

[sharedvalues]

16. Similarly on Texas polls

Link to tweet

[sharedvalues]

17. Ps

Apologies for being slightly strident. I’m annoyed at the article headline, not you.
And I will vote for any Dem but I do think Warren is the candidate who has the best chance to bring the structural change we need. So I’m not anti-Biden.

I probably would have said BERNIE is the key story here. He has lost tons of ground.

[Blue_true]

18. This is bad news for Bernie.

With Warren right on the heel of his shoes, he risks cratering. At some point the combined Bernie/Warren support has to make a choice about how best to take on Joe.