Joe Biden's lead shrinks to zero against Bernie Sanders in critical Iowa

[Cheap_Trick]

Polls. Everybody's got 'em.

"Mr Biden is matched by Bernie Sanders in the state, a sharp drop from his 11 point lead in a separate poll last month. Both candidates can claim 24 per cent support in the state, which will vote first in the nominating process next year."




https://news.yahoo.com/2020-election-poll-joe-bidens-170426885.html

[W_HAMILTON]

1. Is that the online poll that was already discounted?

[still_one]

6. yup, that is the one. Regardless, the signifigance of Iowa is that it goes first. Its record of

picking the Democratic nominee is spotty at best. It is also a caucus, which is not a good reflection of participation since it discriminates against those who have mobility issues, or time conflicts

[KPN]

7. No. Survey of 650 likely Dem voters.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Wrong. It's an "online poll", and not well rated by 538. People have to opt in to participate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

There's nothing random about an "online poll".

[Go Vols]

19. I don't see them on the 538 list.

The Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll is part of the 2020 Change series of polls, and was conducted online and is quite extensive. It’s obviously rather difficult to poll a field this large, especially when many caucus-goers like multiple candidates. Fortunately, Change Research asked several questions where poll-takers could pick up to five separate candidates for specific questions. That produced some insightful results.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. I provided a link. Not sure why you can't see them. It's there in black & white.

Click on my link, if it's not there, just enter them in the search box, that should pull it up.

[Go Vols]

23. Search pulled up "Change Research"

ty

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. You're welcome. n/t

[Honeycombe8]

21. It's both "615 likely caucus goers" and online.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/poll-biden-sanders-tied-in-iowa

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. Translation: it's a worthless poll. As far as I can tell, RCP doesn't even include them in their...

averages.

[Honeycombe8]

26. Okay. But that's a cute cat, anyway! nt

[sheshe2]

29. I loves me those online polls.

They're fun! I get to vote as many times as I wish!

[Tarheel_Dem]

34. I know, right?

[sheshe2]

36. clickin' away...

[Bucky]

3. Personally I'm expecting Bran Stark to come out of nowhere and win it all

change the donkey icon to a 3-eyed raven

[obamanut2012]

11. lulz

YOU KNOW NOTHING, BUCKY SNOW!

[leftofcool]

13. Ms Stormborn will have something to say about that

[George II]

4. "Online survey"

Former Vice President Joe Biden is tied for the lead with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in Iowa, according to a new online survey conducted by the Democratic firm Change Research.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/poll-biden-sanders-tied-in-iowa

[Cha]

5. Thanks, George.. I was trying to find if it were

an "online survey".

I don't trust those.

[mcar]

8. An online survey?

[NurseJackie]

10. Clicky-clicky! Then click some more...

[Skya Rhen]

14. I like..

[oasis]

22. I wonder if the campaign offered this guy union membership.

[Peacetrain]

12. The last Iowa only poll we have seen is march 3 Des Moines Register poll and Biden

was out in front.. soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Cha]

16. "March"?

[Peacetrain]

38. Yep that is the last Des Moines Register poll

I was hoping they had updated it..but have not yet.. we can move a little slow around here.. but that is ridiculous ..

[Cha]

39. Only asking Because

Biden entered the race on April 25th! lol

Peacetrain

[Peacetrain]

40. I know Cha.. I do not live in Des Moines

But that is our big paper in Iowa.. and I was online yesterday trying to find our latest polls here from the local side not a national poll but just an Iowa poll.. and sure enough March.. somebody somewhere needs to get on the stick and start calling our state locally.. that is for sure!!!

[Cha]

41. Due time due time..

We have over a year!

[CentralMass]

15. We have another year before the last primary votes are cast. A lot can happen in a year.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. Ya think?! If a week is an eternity in politics, WTF is a year?!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!

[CentralMass]

33. +1

[4now]

17. LOL online poll

[Bettie]

18. I live in Iowa

and while we're first, ultimately, we're not all that significant.

It is a good place to get your name out as it is a small state with an inexpensive (relatively) media market. You can go to various events in all the counties with an investment of time and a small amount of money. That is the good part. The bad is that a caucus only includes people with the time to go to a long ass meeting on a Monday night.

I came here from a primary state and prefer that overall. The advantage of a caucus is that you can put forth resolutions that can, and often are, included in the state party platform.

Right now though, both Sanders and Biden have the advantage of name recognition. By next February? Well, things change as people get to know other candidates.

[emmaverybo]

27. I admire your fervent support. But you know, you really should think about the credibility

in the evidence you give for pumping up Bernie Sanders. Though your efforts speak well of you in terms of your belief in him and energetic advocacy, so often your claims, lacking objective reality testing, make others double down.
Talk about what you find in his character and his qualifications to so devoutly boost him, but be wary of hyperbole and dubious sources. These only undermine your case.
He is struggling this time. His base is dwindling. He is in serious trouble in his candidacy in the primaries, and by any current and credible measures, in the general.
You can fight for the underdog, but when you fight in spite of real facts, you only succeed in fueling opposition, which comes backatcha like a boomerang.

[NYMinute]

28. Sanders so desperate

Posting several OPs on that same discredited online poll.

[NurseJackie]

30. Ahhh... Push it! Ahhh... Push it real good!

[Gothmog]

31. Online polls are not reliable

[Drunken Irishman]

35. His lead didn't shrink...this is disingenuous.

They're two different polls. You can't say his lead shrank when you're comparing two different polls.

[smirkymonkey]

37. Um. Ok.

Whatever.