Are the first two states to go in the primary process outliers? Are they predictive of anything?

[Ed Suspicious]

If they are not, then why do candidates work so hard to win them?

[virtualobserver]

1. momentum is everything

it can pop the bubble of invincibility of a frontrunner

[Ed Suspicious]

4. Good because I keep reading threads where they are discounting Bernie's momentum.

I figured winning early states is better than losing, but in the twilight zone that is other groups and even facebook, it counts for nothing, or more bizzaro, show that he is peaking too early.

[virtualobserver]

5. Hillary supporters hate this poll, but.....

http://www.gallup.com/poll/103351/clinton-maintains-large-lead-over-obama-nationally.aspx

Hillary led Obama 45-27 in December 2007

Iowa changed everything

[merrily]

9. 18 points. But that is nationwide. Right now, he really needs to worry about the first 3 primaries

Very disappointed in Harkin. Last year, he expressed concern that Hillary was not left enough.

[PowerToThePeople]

2. Momentum

Takes more effort to break the friction of not moving, once you are moving it is easier.

??

[PoliticAverse]

3. I think they are more important to lesser known candidates.

Finishing in the top can really give a boost to a campaign but finishing 2nd or 3rd isn't
that big a negative to a frontrunner.

[emulatorloo]

6. I live in Iowa, in general Dem caucus is predictive. Republican not so much.

The Republican caucus goers are rather fundy. 2008 Iowa Dems went with Obama, Edwards in second place. Iowa Repubs went with Romney, Huckabee came in second.

So yeah winning in IA is a very good thing. And Bernie can definitely win here.

[daleanime]

10. +1

[BillZBubb]

7. They are very important to thin the herd.

Any candidate who cannot garner a respectable percentage of the vote in at least one of the states is pretty much finished. Their fundraising dries up.

A surprisingly good showing by a supposedly lesser candidate can propel him or her into the frontrunner group.

[merrily]

8. But Bernie's funding is not going to dry up unless we dry it.

Bernie's in the pocket of Big Voter!

If he loses the first couple of primaries, I'll donate more than I do now.