Commentary: Yes, Bernie Sanders Could Beat Hillary Clinton
By Todd Domke
Months ago, I wrote a commentary asking “Can Bernie Sanders beat expectations?” He has surged in the polls since then, prompting pundits to dub this the “summer of Sanders.” So the question now is: Can Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton?
Most political analysts say he has no real chance; arguing, in effect, that the political deck is stacked against him. They contend he can’t raise enough money; he is too little known; and as a self-described “democratic socialist,” he can’t appeal to many non-progressive voters.
James Pindell, an astute reporter for The Boston Globe, explained that “voters’ summer flings with candidates typically don’t last” — in past election cycles there have been such surges by other anti-establishment candidates, only to lose to better-funded, more “mainstream” pols.
But to conclude that little-known upstarts never beat the odds would be ignoring nominees like George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.
Sanders is sometimes compared to Eugene McCarthy who, in 1968, did better than expected in the New Hampshire primary against President Lyndon Johnson. That led to Robert F. Kennedy entering the race, and LBJ announcing that he would not seek reelection. McCarthy and Kennedy split the anti-Vietnam War vote during the primaries, and after RFK’s assassination, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, the establishment candidate, won. But what would have happened if Kennedy had not entered the race, and it was only a two-man contest between McCarthy and Humphrey? We’ll never know, so the argument that Sanders is another McCarthy doesn’t really apply if the Vermont senator is able to keep his status as the only Democrat who can compete with the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton.
The Clinton camp now admits to being worried about the Sanders threat. They fear that he could beat her in the Iowa caucuses. The New York Times reported that Clinton advisers were surprised by the Sanders surge:
“Mr. Sanders’ rising fortunes pose a bind for the Clinton team,” the Times reported. “Directly challenging the senator on his policies and record could elevate his candidacy, alienate some liberal Democrats and make Mrs. Clinton look anxious. Yet continuing the current strategy — vigorously courting voters while hoping they conclude that Mr. Sanders is unelectable — requires Mrs. Clinton to put faith in an Iowa electorate that snubbed her seven years ago, choosing Mr. Obama and Mr. (John) Edwards over her.”
In New Hampshire, Sanders has been so encouraged by polls and crowds that he predicts he’ll win his neighboring state. Indeed, he now predicts, “We’re going to win Iowa, New Hampshire, the nomination and the presidency.”
Many surging candidates make the mistake of believing that their momentum is unstoppable — but then they make a gaffe, or some economic or military development suddenly makes them look not quite qualified to be president. And then the surge becomes a quick slide downward.
Still, the Sanders surge isn’t necessarily a fad. Many Democratic voters “feel the Bern” and they resent jibes by Washington insiders who denigrate Sanders as a temporary phenomenon.
More here: http://www.wbur.org/2015/07/10/commentary-sanders-could-beat-clinton
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