PSA: Pay No Attention to Articles Claiming Clinton Leads in Oregon!
Public Service Announcement:
New Articles Claiming Clinton Leads
in Oregon Are Lies
Greetings, my friends! This is just a quick Math Vs. Media Public Service announcement — please pay no attention to the flood of “news” that is claiming that Clinton leads in the Oregon polls. All of them are based off of the same crappy survey — a crappy survey of a mere 304 “likely voters,” 2 of which said they weren’t voting, knocking that down to 302 people.
The survey does not even state that these 302 are democrats (the only group that can vote in the Oregon democratic primaries) and, because they’re listing the surveyed people as “likely voters,” not “registered voters,” one can only assume that the company, “DHM Research,” which conducted this “survey,” either
a.) Knows that some of them aren’t registered
or
b.) Doesn’t know whether they are registered or not.
Furthermore, the survey does not reveal its methodology — I’ve searched their website and can’t even find information about whether it was a landline, cellphone, or internet survey! (In their FAQ, they state that they use internet surveys & cell-phone surveys).
At the very least, even if we assume that the 302 people are registered democratic voters and that it was’t an internet survey, we’re looking at about a 9-10% margin of error (±7% for the sample size and ±2-3% for using cell-phones), which is more than the survey says Clinton leads by. Therefore, the survey could potentially mean the opposite of what it says it means. I have called “DHM Research” repeatedly to inquire further but they have not picked up.
more: https://johnlaurits.com/2016/05/11/psa-pay-no-attention-to-articles-claiming-clinton-leads-in-oregon/
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