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Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:05 PM

 

Pollsters manipulated NY Polls -- suddenly it all makes sense

The NY polls over the last several weeks frankly didn't make sense to me. Then I saw this just a few minutes ago:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/16/1516313/-There-s-Something-Rotten-in-the-State-of-New-York

There's Something Rotten in the State of New York

by Phil Creek

After just a couple hours of research and going over polling procedures I started to become troubled. It appeared some of the polling in the last week or so taken in New York was done so in order to give a false appearance of majority support for Hillary Clinton. CNN as well as an NBC affiliate, the Wall Street Journal, and Marist all apparently targeted area's in New York which heavily favored Sec. Clinton in previous races including her Senate runs and the 2008 primary. Instead of having a broad base to poll, these organizations had apparently, and purposely, only polled in counties and demographic populations they knew had favored Clinton in the past.... I realized that if this turned out to be true, it would prove blatant manipulation of the process and polling data in order to misinform and suppress turnout for Bernie Sanders.

What my queries and research revealed was that Marist, after the knowledge of the Reuters poll showing Bernie pulling ahead nationally by a single point, conducted a poll inside upper-income precincts of New York City, select counties in western New York, and upper New York state. Polling was mostly targeted in the Counties of St. Lawrence and Herkimer (where Hillary won the 2008 primary by 70% in each), Nassau and Suffolk counties (each 62%), Fulton County ( 77%), Orleans county ( 76%), Cattaraugus county ( 69%) and Yates county ( 70%).


After doing some investigative journalism, making a few phone calls, and researching polling data for the last couple of nights (as I said, I have insomnia anyway ) the conclusion is that the polling data is being manipulated and presented in a direct bias in the favor of Sec. Clinton. It appears to have been done for two reasons; one, to depress and demoralize voter turn-out for Bernie Sanders in the crucial New York primary (a loss for Hillary there would put her electability in the general election in November into serious question), and two, to use the polling data average to suppress the Reuters polling of April 12th which gave Bernie Sanders a 1 point national lead over Hillary Clinton... And that part has worked. In the April 15th poll, the positions had slightly changed thanks to the manipulated New York polling data. Hillary had a point-7% lead over Bernie Sanders nation wide. Whether this rather underhanded and unethical tactic to manipulate polling data will achieve its goal of suppressing turnout for Bernie Sanders in the New York primary has yet to be seen…
Interesting note to add.... According to what I consider a reliable and trustworthy source ( someone I've known for 25 years and works in the New York broadcast media ) out of 62 counties in New York, polling was mostly conducted in certain upper-income residential areas plus 12 counties, and only counties where Hillary had won the 2008 primary by at least 60% of the vote. The average that Hillary won those recently polled counties in 2008 was 65.7%...

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply Pollsters manipulated NY Polls -- suddenly it all makes sense (Original post)
magical thyme Apr 2016 OP
berniepdx420 Apr 2016 #1
snot Apr 2016 #24
polichick Apr 2016 #2
FlatBaroque Apr 2016 #3
PeoViejo Apr 2016 #4
peacebird Apr 2016 #5
cui bono Apr 2016 #23
dchill Apr 2016 #6
SmittynMo Apr 2016 #7
LiberalArkie Apr 2016 #8
monmouth4 Apr 2016 #9
nxylas Apr 2016 #11
monmouth4 Apr 2016 #13
agracie Apr 2016 #16
thereismore Apr 2016 #10
awake Apr 2016 #12
thesquanderer Apr 2016 #14
RoccoR5955 Apr 2016 #15
Scootaloo Apr 2016 #17
4ricksren Apr 2016 #18
4ricksren Apr 2016 #19
passy Apr 2016 #20
Scuba Apr 2016 #21
GreatGazoo Apr 2016 #22

Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:11 PM

1. This may also ultimately be part of the Alibi when they actually hack the voting software and steal

the election... how come we never here about the cyber security being used to safe guard our Democratic elections... this has got to change

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Response to berniepdx420 (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:03 AM

24. Exactly.

I don't suppose there's any independent exit polling happening, is there?

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:12 PM

2. Lying. Cheating. Manipulating the public. Liberty and justice for all!

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:15 PM

3. For each dirty trick we uncover

there are twenty more that they will get away with.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:16 PM

4. Hillary may have her "Martha Stewart Moment" after all.

 

If this all came to light after she was sworn-in, a quick self-Pardon would be in order.


Quote compliments of Bill Clinton.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:17 PM

5. Looking forward to a Michigan style tsunami to swamp Camp Weathervane!

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Response to peacebird (Reply #5)

Tue Apr 19, 2016, 02:46 AM

23. That's what I'm thinking/hoping!

Hopefully it just makes them wrong. I don't think Bernie supporters would not show up because of poll numbers. We know it's more than just winning, it's about showing up and making our voices heard until the system hears them and changes.

,

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:19 PM

6. I'm guessing that Bullhorn Bill won't be at ...

any of those locations tomorrow.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:23 PM

7. Imagine that!!!!

Creating and feeding false and misleading information to the media, who question nothing!!!!

Naw, nothing corrupt there!!!!

Establishments answer: Move on, nothing to see here.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:27 PM

8. That way when the totals come out, everything will look normal.

Beware of those who count the vote.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:28 PM

9. What are NY Dems doing about this? n/t

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Response to monmouth4 (Reply #9)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:39 PM

11. Organizing it?

Forgive me if I'm being cynical here.

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Response to nxylas (Reply #11)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:42 PM

13. I think you might be spot on!...n/t

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Response to monmouth4 (Reply #13)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:50 PM

16. Unfortunately, you are probably correct.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:29 PM

10. This is very tenuous. If we wait 24 hours, we'll have results of the actual poll. nt

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:40 PM

12. I hope the soft Hillary vote reads those polls and decides to stay home

we know Bernie's people can not wait to vote, I hope that this tacit backfire because if Bernie pulls off a win or even a close tie it will be HUGE for him.

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:44 PM

14. Question: Who paid Marist to do this poll? (n/t)

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 02:46 PM

15. So that's their game.

 

I wondered, because I drove the long way back from Watkins Glen this past weekend. Along the way, I saw 15 Bernie yard signs, and only 4 Clinton yard signs. I went through Schuyler, Tompkins, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Ulster Counties. I live in Ulster.
I was wondering where she was getting ahead in these polls. Thanks for the info.

Off topic, but FYI- I went to Watkins Glen to take part in the annual Green Grand Prix. You can find out more about that at http://www.greengrandprix.com

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 03:03 PM

17. Clinton is the second coming of Nixon

 

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 03:18 PM

18. no bernie voter will ever stay home, no matter what the odds!

 



bernie voters know they are voting for an america of economic and cultural equality

sooner or later, superdelegates must run for reelection, and every superdelegate vote for bernie, is thousands of loyal, dedicated, enthusiastic, generous, passionate, principled voters for each superdelegate

win or lose, bernie's america rules!

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 03:19 PM

19. no bernie voter will ever stay home, no matter what the odds!

 


bernie voters know they are voting for an america of economic and cultural equality

sooner or later, superdelegates must run for reelection, and every superdelegate vote for bernie, is thousands of loyal, dedicated, enthusiastic, generous, passionate, principled voters for each superdelegate supporting bernie

win or lose, bernie's america rules!

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 04:04 PM

20. K&R

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 06:36 PM

21. Many (most?) polls are designed to influence opinion, not measure it.

 

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Response to magical thyme (Original post)

Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:57 PM

22. polls aren't having the impact in this race that they have had in priors

Why Aren’t Voters Listening to the Polls?

The media drumbeat that Hillary Clinton has the election in the bag has been going on for months now. A few weeks ago, New York Times Washington correspondent Nate Cohn confirmed Hillary’s coronation in a column titled, “Hillary Clinton and Inevitability: This Time Is Different.” Cohn looked at the delegate count and compared Clinton’s performance in 2008 with how she was doing this year, and concluded, “If a candidate has ever been inevitable — for the nomination — it is Mrs. Clinton today.”

Media experts like Cohn point to an abundance of polls masquerading as news as the basis upon which they inform voters that Hillary Clinton will be winning the primary election. Poll results translate into conventional wisdom and until the startling Sanders upsets during the past few weeks, become a sort of self-fulfilling prophesy. The March 6 press release by the Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll, viewable in its entirely here, is a great example of how this was supposed to work in Michigan.
...
The message to be conveyed to readers, viewers and listeners the day before the big presidential election was clear: Pack it in, would-be Sanders voters. You’re dreaming if you think your puny vote will make a difference! Might as well stay home.

But a funny thing happened in Michigan. Bernie voters didn’t listen to the polls, or the pundits. They turned out anyway, as they did in Kansas, Minnesota, and Colorado. And during next week’s big primaries, the purportedly scientific polls that today show a big Hillary sweep in every state are going to seem a lot less scientific.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-greenberg/polldefying-pattern-predi_b_9434118.html

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