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Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:19 PM

Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Sanders Will Erode It After That.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-biggest-lead-march-15-sanders-will-erode.html

Iím keeping this short to put a very simple idea into your head. Because of the way the Democratic Party voting calendar is structured this year, Clintonís largest lead will occur on March 15. After that, most of Sandersí strongest states will vote.

What this means is simple:

Hillary Clinton will grow her lead until the March 15 states have voted.
Bernie Sanders will erase that lead ó partly or completely ó after March 15.
How much of Clintonís lead he will erase depends on your not buying what the media is selling ó that the contest is over.
In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesnít retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.
March 15 is the Ides of March; a good way to remember the date. The message ó gear up for a battle after the Ides of March, and donít let the establishment media tell you what to think. They wonít be right until the last state has voted.

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Reply Clinton Will Build Her Biggest Lead on March 15. Sanders Will Erode It After That. (Original post)
mother earth Mar 2016 OP
Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #1
mother earth Mar 2016 #5
kath Mar 2016 #7
senz Mar 2016 #25
mother earth Mar 2016 #37
beltanefauve Mar 2016 #2
mother earth Mar 2016 #6
beltanefauve Mar 2016 #10
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #3
DesertFlower Mar 2016 #4
mother earth Mar 2016 #8
GoldenSF Mar 2016 #9
Rosa Luxemburg Mar 2016 #11
renate Mar 2016 #17
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #19
JeaneRaye Mar 2016 #12
Impedimentus Mar 2016 #13
Baadger Mar 2016 #14
Ccarmona Mar 2016 #15
chwaliszewski Mar 2016 #16
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #18
Paulie Mar 2016 #20
yuiyoshida Mar 2016 #21
Paulie Mar 2016 #23
JDPriestly Mar 2016 #34
mother earth Mar 2016 #38
mithnanthy Mar 2016 #22
mother earth Mar 2016 #39
senz Mar 2016 #24
Legends303 Mar 2016 #26
mother earth Mar 2016 #40
AzDar Mar 2016 #27
NowSam Mar 2016 #28
hopemountain Mar 2016 #29
4lbs Mar 2016 #30
mother earth Mar 2016 #41
Post removed Mar 2016 #31
Ginbat Mar 2016 #32
Mister Ed Mar 2016 #35
JDPriestly Mar 2016 #33
mother earth Mar 2016 #42
in_cog_ni_to Mar 2016 #36
mother earth Mar 2016 #43
felix_numinous Mar 2016 #44

Response to mother earth (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:26 PM

1. You are right,

 

There is a front-loading of the blue-dog states in this process. Just wait until we get to the more progressive states. Go Bernie!

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Response to Jenny_92808 (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:39 PM

5. Absolutely, we need to enlighten everyone so as not to lose hope, which is just what they wanted.

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Response to mother earth (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:41 PM

7. Exactly!

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Response to mother earth (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:39 AM

25. Bless you, mother earth.

 

You've always been my favorite mother.

Think I'd let those greedheads despoil you for their dirty little money lusts?

Never. You will win, you will always win, in the end.


(And that's how I feel about your namesake, nice Bernie person. )

Yes, let's do everything we can to lift up our fellow Bernistas. We're in this together all the way to the convention, and then, regardless of who wins, for the rest of our lives.



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Response to senz (Reply #25)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 07:44 AM

37. Absolutely, the times they are a changing....

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:26 PM

2. Thanks for sharing

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Response to beltanefauve (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:40 PM

6. You do the same in whatever capacity you can. We are fighting propaganda & the machine.

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Response to mother earth (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:03 AM

10. I will

I'm in it for the long haul. Talking, writing, sharing links,spreading information, making flyers, phone banking,...

There's lots to do.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:33 PM

3. Good to know!

 

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:39 PM

4. but bernie started something. even if he's not the

candidate he's opened a pandora's box. people are not going to stand quiet anymore. people are going to demand certain things.

do you think all his supporters will just quietly go away? i don't think so.

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Response to DesertFlower (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:41 PM

8. I'm not quietly going away, and I'm not losing hope. THIS race is not over, I want everyone to

understand what you are saying and for all of us to bolster each other and realize, united we stand. You are absolutely right, we are not going away, not going quietly. This really is a new shift in thinking and we are never going back.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:49 PM

9. Bernie must stay in

Whatever the math says, Bernie must keep going. We must have a Plan B in case Clinton is indicted. There is still a non-trivial chance that this may happen. Hopefully, we'll know either way before the convention.

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Response to GoldenSF (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:09 AM

11. Bernie says he's staying in the race to the Convention

that also means the general election

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Response to GoldenSF (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:47 AM

17. welcome to DU!

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Response to GoldenSF (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:04 AM

19. Hey welcome fellow

San Franciscan! Go Giants! Go Bernie!

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:25 AM

12. Here's hoping that you're right.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:31 AM

13. The Best Is Yet To Come

Hang in there people. FEEL THE BERN !!!

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:34 AM

14. It ain't over until Hillary sings...

 

she is warming up those vocal chords.... but she isn't there yet

Bernie has got this.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:40 AM

16. K & R!

I'm in it! My dad & I were at the Bills/Oilers playoff game in '93 when Buffalo was down 35-3 a couple of minutes into the 3rd quarter. They came back and won it in OT. It ain't over yet.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:02 AM

18. I am wondering which way California will lean

I love my State, and hope everyone comes out to vote... but I am also unsure which way the vote will go, and can only hope there will be a lot of smart people voting here...

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:14 AM

20. There is a lot of time between now and then!



Night!

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Response to Paulie (Reply #20)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:16 AM

21. A lot of people are sayin its over....

that California won't make any damn difference by than, I can only hope they are wrong.

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #21)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:20 AM

23. Lots of those people have been saying that since October.

He's fighting against the current upstream, but were only half way to the convention. As long as he has funding, that's the key.

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Response to Paulie (Reply #23)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:46 AM

34. We sent more money tonight. I hope everyone who can does too.

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #21)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 07:49 AM

38. JD Priestly made a point on another thread, the marijuana states seeking to legalize will be on

board for Bernie, and I've heard he is already doing well in CA.

NOTHING is a given though, so we need to keep doing what we do and encouraging everyone who wants real change to keep supporting Bernie and making sure his message gets through. We really are the change we seek, and we are not going quietly, IF at all. The fight goes on no matter what.

The powers that be want to marginalize Bernie and all of us, they are all in the pockets of big money. We are all up against an entire corrupt system, for that reason alone we are in this for the long haul and beyond.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:19 AM

22. Thank you all....

for keeping my hopes up.

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Response to mithnanthy (Reply #22)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 07:51 AM

39. That's what we do for each other, and that's how we win.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:25 AM

24. The oligarch has had her time.

 

Now it's time for the 99%.

Let's make it happen for the people.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:45 AM

26. Yup...

 

Illinois and Missouri was suppose to be his states and still he lost. He would have to win by huge margins to even stay competitive.

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Response to Legends303 (Reply #26)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 07:56 AM

40. Stick around, you haven't seen anything yet. The primaries were frontloaded for Hillary, that's how

much faith they had in her "message", they had to marginalize her opponent and limit debates and MSM coverage, and frontload primaries. He was never expected to do as well as he's done, so, I'm not DIScouraged, WE are all encouraged.

"NOT ME US"....but what do the naysayers know about that...they've bought into the corporate coup & oligarchy, heck it's being celebrated, if that's your victory, maybe you need to re-examine the democratic principles that once made you a dem., but what do I know, I'm that old fashioned kind of dem, that one that will fight for what's right no matter the odds. We are like Bernie, we are about "NOT ME US".

Welcome to DU, despite your snark.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:59 AM

27. K & R

 

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:03 AM

28. Hopeful and inspiring message

Thanks for this timely announcement.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:08 AM

29. yes - and it has been so damn close in the

states that we thought bernie would win - he is shy just a bit - very encouraging. i'm staying off the networks for now and even muting cspan...lol. self preservation... i don't want to hear the negative speel from the pundits. we've heard enough of that and not enough about nor for bernie - except for on democracy now.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:18 AM

30. He may erode it some, but he won't overcome it. One needs to be realistic.

Hillary Clinton will have at least a 320 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders after tonight. Maybe even as high as 340.

There are 28 contests remaining (including Puerto Rico and D.C.) with about 2700 delegates remaining.

Let us say there is an average of 100 delegates per contest to be generous. There are actually less on average per state, but let's be as friendly to Senator Sanders as possible.

If Bernie was to win EVERY one of the 28 contests by a 55 to 45 margin, he would gain only about 280 delegates more than Hillary Clinton. That's 28 contests by an average of 10 points, and delegates, each. Not enough to overtake her. He would still fall at least 40 delegates short. It gets worse if one factors in the superdelegates, but we won't use them for now.

It is virtually impossible that he will win all 28. No one can sanely believe he will suddenly win 28 contests in a row.

More realistically, he may win 18 out of the remaining 28. Even then that's a stretch, but let's say it happens.

He would have to win those by at least 20 points, and Hillary win the other 10 by only a few points, to even come close to tying.

This scenario is extremely remote to the point of being near impossible. It has less than a 1 in a million chance of happening.

There are no more New Hampshires or Vermonts in the 28 contests where he will win by 20+ points.

It is difficult to see any state where in the more realistic scenario, that Senator Sanders will win by 20+ points.

If they split the remaining contests, 14 each, then we get to the point where Sanders' margins of victory will have to be 25 points or more in every contest he wins. That's even more improbable than winning 18 states by 20+ points.

Then you factor in the superdelegates. They will clearly side heavily with the frontrunner, like they did in 2008.

Now, one can say that the superdelegates can't deny the will of the people in the Democratic convention, but the will of the people is clearly with Secretary Clinton. She currently has almost 2 million more popular votes than Senator Sanders.

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Response to 4lbs (Reply #30)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:00 AM

41. Really? LOL, we should listen to the opposition? The ones that have marginalized all of us from

beginning and are on board with oligarchy.

I'm sorry, the righteousness is just comical....I don't call it reality, I call it succumbing to control by oligarchy, self-defeat and going over to the dark side, and I'm in good company from what I can see.

But, hey, thanks.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)


Response to Post removed (Reply #31)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:20 AM

32. It's a contraction

It's you're dumb not your dumb and by the way you are dumb.

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Response to Ginbat (Reply #32)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 04:43 AM

35. Welcome to DU!

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:45 AM

33. Thanks. The results hit me hard tonight because I have a sister in Ohio who, I know, voted

for Hillary. Although she is a wonderful person, she does not understand politics or the issues. She doesn't understand what is wrong with the surveillance. She does not understand what the banks did that was so wrong. There are so many issues that she just does not understand, and I hate arguing with her.

And here I am, stuck in California and not able to vote until June 7. It is so frustrating.

I really appreciate your comforting words.

Thanks a million. Really. Really. Really.

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Response to JDPriestly (Reply #33)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:03 AM

42. Just keep in mind, the primaries were frontloaded for a Southern victory which in my mind

does not bode well for the inevitable. When you are inevitable, you don't need all the gimmicks & tricks & deceit. There's a reason why these tactics HAD to be taken for Ms. Inevitable.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 05:28 AM

36. I can't wait

to serve up some humble pie. It's going to be b-e-a-u-t-i-f-u-l and fun!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to in_cog_ni_to (Reply #36)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:07 AM

43. Let naysayers do what they do, and we keep forging on, like Bernie. This shift in thinking and

acting is real, win or lose. The time has come that people are not going to put up with all of the corruption and greed, we simply can no longer let it continue. It shocks me to no end that the oligarchy has cheerleaders at all that are not corporate sponsored, it goes against every democratic principle.

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Response to mother earth (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:55 PM

44. K&R

The M$M distortion field is relentless, all that corporate money cannot outweigh the voices of this many people.

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