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GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:09 PM Mar 2016

Different Cuts on Exit Poll Data show Wide Support for Sanders (except Incomes >$100K)

Some interesting details in the MA exit polls:

-Sanders beat Clinton among voters making under $50k, and voters making between $50k and $100k. The only income group she won was voters making over $100k.

-Among first-time voters, Sanders got a whopping 71% of the vote.

-Among independents, Sanders got 65% of the votes.

-Sanders won among very liberal voters and moderate voters.

-Clinton did better among married women than she did among unmarried women.

I’ve seen lots of claims that Sanders is only winning because of white men; among every other demographic, he loses. That simply isn’t true. In Vermont and New Hampshire, he beat Clinton among all women voters. In Oklahoma, as I said, he nearly tied Clinton among women voters. In Nevada, he nearly tied her among Latino voters (though the experts are still debating that one). In Massachusetts, as I said, he got 41% of non-white voters. We don’t have any exit polls for Colorado and Minnesota (at least not on CNN’s website, which is the one I’ve been using), but given the size of his victories there, I would be surprised if Sanders didn’t win or tie with Clinton among non-white voters and perhaps women voters.
...
Outside the South, Sanders has won or come very close to winning every single state. From here on out, many of the states are much friendlier territory for him. Unless our brains are so completely scrambled by the Nate Silvers/Voxification of political life—where every poll is a destiny, every super-delegate a fact of nature, where everyone’s a crackpot realist rather than a citizen activist—it would be the definition of insanity to give up now. This is an uphill battle, always has been. So what? We move.


http://coreyrobin.com/2016/03/02/super-tuesday-march-theses/
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Different Cuts on Exit Poll Data show Wide Support for Sanders (except Incomes >$100K) (Original Post) GreatGazoo Mar 2016 OP
very interesting, thanks grasswire Mar 2016 #1
Glad you like it. I am looking for more of this level of analysis GreatGazoo Mar 2016 #4
We move. They are clutching their pearls and praying. thereismore Mar 2016 #2
Correct me if I'm wrong, but... HerbChestnut Mar 2016 #3
no it is a category by category cut GreatGazoo Mar 2016 #5
Ah yep, of course HerbChestnut Mar 2016 #6
I wondered that also? truedelphi Mar 2016 #7

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
4. Glad you like it. I am looking for more of this level of analysis
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:17 PM
Mar 2016

Forcing data into big pre-set categories doesn't let it speak to you.

Multivariate analysis uses two or more variables to let the data show you where the breaks really are and THEN you name the categories.

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
3. Correct me if I'm wrong, but...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:17 PM
Mar 2016

How is that mathematically possible? If Bernie won with folks making <$100k per year, but still lost the state, that would mean that the majority of people who voted in the Dem primary make >$100k.

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
5. no it is a category by category cut
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:20 PM
Mar 2016

so if there are 100 voters <$100K and only 10 >$100K then in theory one would only need to win 6 votes in that second category to qualify as "winning among incomes >$100K".

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
6. Ah yep, of course
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:22 PM
Mar 2016

I guess that means Bernie and Hillary were basically tied for voters <100k if those over 100k were enough to tip the scales.

truedelphi

(32,324 posts)
7. I wondered that also?
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 10:44 PM
Mar 2016

Were these exit polls done only in the states where he won?

I am staunchly a Bernie supporter, but can't figure this out...

Oops, on re-reading the OP, this was exit polls in Massachusetts, here some funny business gave Hillary the vote count (Once again!! Damn she would be someone to befriend right before hitting a roulette table!)

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