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Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:56 PM

 

Uh oh. This wasn't supposed to happen.

Sanders cracks Clinton's Nevada firewall

LAS VEGAS – Hillary Clinton has been on the ground in Nevada since last April. Bernie Sanders only began building up his organization here late in the fall.
But the state that’s been touted as Clinton’s firewall against the Vermont senator in the event he generates any momentum out of the whiter and more liberal states of Iowa and New Hampshire is suddenly looking like it’s in play, potentially opening another unexpected early state front.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-nevada-217432#ixzz3wWFvXJyQ

92 replies, 12737 views

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Arrow 92 replies Author Time Post
Reply Uh oh. This wasn't supposed to happen. (Original post)
floriduck Jan 2016 OP
saltpoint Jan 2016 #1
bvf Jan 2016 #2
tex-wyo-dem Jan 2016 #27
saltpoint Jan 2016 #62
Proserpina Jan 2016 #31
saltpoint Jan 2016 #63
Ivan Kaputski Jan 2016 #54
saltpoint Jan 2016 #61
CharlotteVale Jan 2016 #3
in_cog_ni_to Jan 2016 #4
DCBob Jan 2016 #5
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #6
DCBob Jan 2016 #10
stevenleser Jan 2016 #12
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #16
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #15
DCBob Jan 2016 #19
chervilant Jan 2016 #21
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #23
DCBob Jan 2016 #34
Name removed Jan 2016 #39
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #22
DCBob Jan 2016 #33
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #41
Blus4u Jan 2016 #56
Plucketeer Jan 2016 #72
DCBob Jan 2016 #74
tex-wyo-dem Jan 2016 #28
DCBob Jan 2016 #36
DCBob Jan 2016 #35
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #42
DCBob Jan 2016 #45
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #52
DCBob Jan 2016 #55
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #57
DCBob Jan 2016 #65
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #75
DCBob Jan 2016 #76
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #78
ieoeja Jan 2016 #47
1StrongBlackMan Jan 2016 #48
DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #51
stevenleser Jan 2016 #11
Fawke Em Jan 2016 #14
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #17
Elmer S. E. Dump Jan 2016 #60
AzDar Jan 2016 #7
greiner3 Jan 2016 #68
Uncle Joe Jan 2016 #8
Phlem Jan 2016 #9
Bleacher Creature Jan 2016 #13
underthematrix Jan 2016 #18
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #24
underthematrix Jan 2016 #25
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #26
murielm99 Jan 2016 #20
jfern Jan 2016 #29
RandySF Jan 2016 #32
Alfresco Jan 2016 #30
DCBob Jan 2016 #37
randome Jan 2016 #38
nxylas Jan 2016 #43
1StrongBlackMan Jan 2016 #49
seabeyond Jan 2016 #40
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #53
seabeyond Jan 2016 #69
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #77
seabeyond Jan 2016 #79
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #80
seabeyond Jan 2016 #83
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #84
seabeyond Jan 2016 #85
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #86
seabeyond Jan 2016 #87
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #88
seabeyond Jan 2016 #89
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #90
seabeyond Jan 2016 #91
hueymahl Jan 2016 #44
dpatbrown Jan 2016 #46
bvar22 Jan 2016 #50
leftofcool Jan 2016 #58
libdem4life Jan 2016 #70
CSStrowbridge Jan 2016 #59
floriduck Jan 2016 #64
DCBob Jan 2016 #66
floriduck Jan 2016 #67
DCBob Jan 2016 #71
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #82
Gore1FL Jan 2016 #81
CSStrowbridge Jan 2016 #92
Babel_17 Jan 2016 #73

Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:01 PM

1. Sounds like Nevada has a lot of

engaged Democratic volunteers in it at the moment.

And that's a real good thing.

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Response to saltpoint (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:33 PM

2. +1. n/t

 

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Response to saltpoint (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:33 AM

27. From the Morning Joe interview this morning...

Sanders said that they were heading to NV right after the interview.

Seems his campaign feels they are making headway in the state!

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Response to tex-wyo-dem (Reply #27)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 07:29 PM

62. It will keep the energy level

high and voter interest even higher.

Could be a real good barometer for the general, too.

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Response to saltpoint (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 04:22 AM

31. Nevada has suffered greatly at the hands of the 1%, banksters and such

 

They may be crazy down there, but they aren't stupid.

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Response to Proserpina (Reply #31)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 07:30 PM

63. Yep -- Nevada's getting it together

big time.

'Would like to see a long-term blue streak at all levels of government in Nevada.

And for a very long time to come.

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Response to saltpoint (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:30 PM

54. +2

 

Volunteers are a good sign for the Democratic party. I'll bet that the volunteer stats for the repugs are not near as good.

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Response to Ivan Kaputski (Reply #54)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 07:28 PM

61. Bet you're right. Anyone out

volunteering for the current GOP candidates should probably be locked up in a basement.

I think the blue team has the vibe for 2016.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:36 PM

3. K&R

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:41 PM

4. Firewall Schmirewall!

Don't underestimate Bernie Sanders.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 10:46 PM

5. What evidence?? The latest NV poll (Dec 28) had Hillary up 50-27

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Response to DCBob (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:02 PM

6. The article spoke of the way Sanders was making inroads into what should be a solid Clinton state.

From the article:

<snip>

In recent days, Sanders has won over some of Clinton's most stalwart supporters in the state. Erin Bilbray, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Nevada who was so loyal to Clinton in 2008 that she refused to support Obama at the convention, has endorsed the Vermont senator.

<snip>

There are several factors suggesting an opening for Sanders to mount a strong challenge to the Democratic frontrunner – if he plays his ground game right.
The powerful Culinary Union that represents 60,000 members, multiple sources said, is expected to remain neutral and offer no endorsement until after the caucuses. In 2008, the union backed Obama about three weeks before the caucuses.
Same day registration for Democrats here also means more non-traditional voters can participate in the process if Sanders campaign manages to turn them out on caucus day. To that effect, National Nurses United launched a "Bernie Bus" on Wednesday, making multiple stops in Las Vegas to rally supporters ahead of the Democratic dinner. The bus made stops in front of the Tropicana Las Vegas and the MGM Grand Conference Center to turn out Nevada registered nurses for Sanders.

<snip>
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-nevada-217432#ixzz3wWVIQQIy

Clinton's current dominance in the polls wasn't the focus of the article. The point was that things are falling in such a way that Sanders could neutralize NV as a Clinton firewall, should Clinton actually need NV as a firewall. If Clinton does well enough in IA and NH and SC, she won't need one.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:36 PM

10. So no actual polling evidence.

Sounds like wishful thinking.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:47 PM

12. Very disappointing but no longer surprising.

 

Long gone are the days where DU was demanding of actual evidence for contentions.

Wishful thinking rules the day.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #12)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:29 AM

16. You should really read the article.

It's pretty clear you haven't.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #10)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:28 AM

15. I think you misunderstood the the article and/or my post. Let me try to be clearer.

This has nothing to do with polling. This has to do with with important and influential supporters in NV (expected to be in Clinton's camp) throwing their support to Sanders. In a Caucus state, that can matter quite a lot.

Sanders isn't required to win NV in order to stop it from being a Clinton firewall. Clinton not winning big is required to stop it from being a firewall. Sanders is making inroads with important support within that state that Clinton thought she could count on. It's likely not enough to stop her from winning the state. But it may stop the win from being the momentum stopper they planned on that state to be.

The whole point may be moot by then, anyway. Clinton may not need a firewall. A prerequisite for this to even matter in the slightest is Sanders having momentum. If she does, NV may not be enough to do what they once thought it could do. That might not matter either.


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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #15)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:38 AM

19. I understood the article...

Its a feeble baseless attempt to persuade readers Bernie is competitive in Nevada.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #19)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:48 AM

21. Feeble? Baseless?

If so, then HRC and her supporters have absolutely nothing about which to worry, no?


(Forgive me if I find your trenchant condescension rather amusing...)

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Response to chervilant (Reply #21)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:53 AM

23. It's a hit and run. But they missed and hit a wall.

The interest is not the content of the article (which they didn't read), but to instead deny what they think the article is about based on the headline.

For them to even care about NV as a firewall means at some level they believe Sanders may well have a lot of momentum heading into the NV Caucus in the first place.

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Response to chervilant (Reply #21)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:31 AM

34. What's amusing are Bernie supporters like you..

who are quick to dismiss real evidence favorable to Hillary but believe fantasy stories like this one.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #34)


Response to DCBob (Reply #19)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:49 AM

22. I am guessing you read the title and not the article -- just like you did my posts.

If I knew you really didn't want to discuss what the article actually said, I wouldn't have wasted my time corrected what I thought at first was an innocent straw man.

Have a great night.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #22)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:28 AM

33. I read the article and re-read it looking for any substantial evidence.. didn't find it.

The only thing I see is one former Hillary supporter switched to Bernie and Bernie's campaign is hiring people and opening some offices. That doesn't mean Bernie is suddenly competitive there. Feeble and baseless as I said before.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #33)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:32 AM

41. Then you didn't understand it.

I've explained it multiple times. It's really not worth trying to again.

TTFN

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #41)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 04:10 PM

56. It wasn't worth explaining in the first place.

The market has been cornered on condescension.

Peace

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Response to DCBob (Reply #19)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:21 PM

72. Whistling past the graveyard

 

is what your off-hand dismissal is called. That's cool. We understand.

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Response to Plucketeer (Reply #72)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:22 PM

74. No whistling here.. just commenting on a very ignorant article.

For one thing Nevada is not necessarily a prime Hillary state. The states where Hillary will do best are those with high percentage of African American voters which are mostly in the south. Nevada has a relatively low percent of AA voters as compared to the deep south states.

And the idea that Bernie is gaining traction there isn't supported by anything of significance. One Hillary supporter changed to Bernie; Bernie's campaign hired some folks and opened some offices; and a union hasn't decided to support anyone yet.. How has any of that changed the dynamics there?? I suspect the next round of polls will still show Hillary way ahead.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #10)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:42 AM

28. Does the polling take into account...

Same day registration in the state, or are they polling just registered Democrats and "likely" voters? If so, me thinks they could have some major blind spots in their polling data.

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Response to tex-wyo-dem (Reply #28)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:53 AM

36. Same day polling doesn't only benefit Sanders.

I suspect a few will be voting for Hillary as well.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #6)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:50 AM

35. Sanders biggest problem in Nevada is that there aren't enough white males..

Also from the article..

Sanders’ appeal to Latinos remains a question mark — at a rally here after the first Democratic debate, the crowd that came out to support Sanders was noticeably white for a diverse state, as was the senator’s pre-dinner rally Wednesday.


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Response to DCBob (Reply #35)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:32 AM

42. I am sorry the article confuses you so. n/t

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #42)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:48 AM

45. LOL.. you appear to be the confused one...

or are you simply ignoring the obvious.

Ciao!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #45)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:10 PM

52. Says the personn who thought the article was about polling, lol n/t

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #52)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:50 PM

55. Without polling evidence to back up the article's claims, its meaningless.

There is nothing in that article that supports "cracking a firewall" in Nevada or anywhere else. Its nonsense.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #55)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 05:23 PM

57. If it was about polling, you'd be right. It isn't. You' aren't. n/t

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #57)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:07 PM

65. If the article made any sense, you'd be right. It doesn't, so you aren't.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #65)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:55 PM

75. When you try to perform hit and runs, you should be more effective at both.

The fact that you keep prolonging this is odd, but if you'd like to keep kicking the thread, I am happy to reply.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #75)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 11:06 PM

76. Whats odd is why your comments focus on me rather than the article.

I assume that means you have nothing of substance to offer.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #76)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 11:19 PM

78. I explained the article several times.

You didn't read them any more that you read the article.

What's left to discuss?

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Response to DCBob (Reply #35)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:31 PM

47. Hillary's biggest problem in Nevada is that she tried to disenfranchise Black voters in 2008.

 


Not to mention her generally overall racist campaign that year.

Her second biggest problem is that Nevada is largely rural, and she does extremely poorly in rural regions. Obama swept all but the most populated county in 2008. Good chance Bernie could do so again.

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Response to ieoeja (Reply #47)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:34 PM

48. I think the polling indicates that most Black folks are over 2008 ...

 

don't you?

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Response to ieoeja (Reply #47)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:31 PM

51. I will address both your points

Hillary's biggest problem in Nevada is that she tried to disenfranchise Black voters in 2008.
View profile

Not to mention her generally overall racist campaign that year


-ieoeja





Here are her Congressional endorsements. Highlighted are her endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus. Seventy five percent of Caucus members have endorsed her. They seem to have forgiven her:


Current[edit]
Pete Aguilar, CA[93]
Brad Ashford, NE[94]
Karen Bass, CA[95]
Joyce Beatty, OH[96]
Xavier Becerra, CA[22]
Ami Bera, CA[70]
Don Beyer, VA[97]
Suzanne Bonamici, OR[98]
Cory Booker
Madeleine Bordallo, GU Del.[99]
Corrine Brown, FL[100]
Julia Brownley, CA[93]
Cheri Bustos, IL[101]
GK Butterfiled- Chairman
Lois Capps, CA[102]
Michael Capuano, MA[103]
Tony Cardenas, CA[104]
John Carney, DE[61]
André Carson, IN[105]
Matt Cartwright, PA[106]
Kathy Castor, FL[22]
Joaquín Castro, TX[107]
Judy Chu, CA[108]
David Cicilline, RI[109]
Katherine Clark, MA[110]
Yvette Clark, NY[111]
William Lacy Clay, Jr., MO[112]
Emanuel Cleaver, MO[57]
Steve Cohen, TN[113]
Gerry Connolly, VA[114]
John Conyers, MI[115]
Jim Cooper, TN[116]
Joe Courtney, CT[117]
Joseph Crowley, NY[118]
Henry Cuellar, TX[57]
Elijah Cummings, MD[119]
Danny Davis, IL[57]
Diana DeGette, CO[120]
John Delaney, MD[57]
Rosa DeLauro, CT[121]
Suzan DelBene, WA[25]
Ted Deutch, FL[57]
Debbie Dingell, MI[57]
Tammy Duckworth, IL[57]
Donna Edwards, MD[87]
Eliot Engel, NY[122]
Anna Eshoo, CA[93]
Elizabeth Esty, CT[123]
Bill Foster, IL[57]
Lois Frankel, FL[57]
Marcia Fudge, OH[124]
Ruben Gallego, AZ[125]
John Garamendi, CA[126]
Gene Green, TX[57]
Luis Gutiérrez, IL[127]
Janice Hahn, CA[57]
Alcee Hastings, FL[128]
Denny Heck, WA[25]
Brian Higgins, NY[22]
Rubén Hinojosa. TX[22]
Jim Himes, CT[129]
Eleanor Holmes Norton, DC Del.[130]
Mike Honda, CA[131]
Steny Hoyer, Min. Whip, MD[132]
Jared Huffman, CA[133]
Steve Israel, NY[57]
Sheila Jackson Lee, TX[57]
Hakeem Jeffries, NY[134]
Eddie Bernice Johnson, TX[57]
Hank Johnson, GA[135]
Bill Keating, MA[136]
Robin Kelly, IL[137]
Joseph P. Kennedy III, MA[138]
Dan Kildee, MI[57]
Derek Kilmer, WA[57]
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ[139]
Ann Kuster, NH[140]
Jim Langevin, RI[141]
Rick Larsen, WA[57]
John B. Larson, CT[123]
Brenda Lawrence, MI[142]
Sandy Levin, MI[57]
John Lewis, GA[57]
Ted Lieu, CA[99]
Dave Loebsack, IA[143]
Zoe Lofgren, CA[144]
Nita Lowey, NY[57]
Michelle Lujan Grisham, NM[57]
Stephen F. Lynch, MA[145]
Carolyn Maloney, NY[146]
Sean Patrick Maloney, NY[57]
Doris Matsui, CA[57]
Betty McCollum, MN[147]
Jim McDermott, WA[57]
Jim McGovern, MA[148]
Jerry McNerney, CA[93]
Gregory W. Meeks, NY[149]
Grace Meng, NY[150]
Gwen Moore, WI[151]
Seth Moulton, MA[152]
Patrick Murphy, FL[153]
Jerrold Nadler, NY[154]
Grace Napolitano, CA[155]
Richard Neal, MA[156]
Rick Nolan, MN[157]
Bill Pascrell, NJ[158]
Donald Payne, Jr., NJ[159]
Ed Perlmutter, CO[57]
Scott Peters, CA[22]
Pedro Pierluisi, PR Res. Comm.[160]
Chellie Pingree, ME[57]
Jared Polis, CO[57]
Lucille Roybal-Allard, CA[155]
Charles Rangel, NY[57]
Kathleen Rice, NY[57]
Cedric Richmond, LA[57]
Raul Ruiz, CA[160]
Dutch Ruppersberger, MD[87]
Tim Ryan, OH[57]
Linda Sánchez, CA[161]
Loretta Sanchez, CA[155]
John Sarbanes, MD[87]
Jan Schakowsky, IL[57]
Adam Schiff, CA[57]
Kurt Schrader, OR[116]
Bobby Scott, VA[162]
David Scott, GA[22]

José E. Serrano, NY[163]
Terri Sewell, AL[22]
Brad Sherman, CA[164]
Louise Slaughter, NY[165]
Adam Smith, WA[166]
Jackie Speier, CA[93]
Mark Takai, HI[82]
Mark Takano, CA[70]
Bennie Thompson, MS[167]
Mike Thompson, CA[22]
Dina Titus, NV[168]
Paul Tonko, NY[122]
Niki Tsongas, MA[145]
Chris Van Hollen, MD[169]
Marc Veasey, TX[57]
Nydia Velázquez, NY[57]
Filemon Vela, Jr., TX[170]
Maxine Waters, CA[171]
Bonnie Watson Coleman, NJ[159]
Tim Walz, MN[172]
Frederica Wilson, FL[173]
John Yarmuth, KY[174]


Also, in a recent poll she was leading among African Americans 73-12%:




http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-maintains-lead-over-sanders-heading-primaries-n490131



Her second biggest problem is that Nevada is largely rural, and she does extremely poorly in rural regions.


Nearly two thirds of Nevada's population lives in the Las Vegas Metropolitan Statistical Area, ergo:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Vegas%E2%80%93Paradise,_NV_MSA



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Response to DCBob (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:46 PM

11. Lol, they talked to a few folks who said they were voting Bernie.

 

Again, we're in Unskewed polls territory.

As far as Bernistas are concerned:

Scientific polls=bad

Anecdotal experience with Joe from around the block=definitive!

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #11)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:08 AM

14. No - it's because even polling companies admit polls are faulty these days.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #11)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:32 AM

17. What polls are you talking about? The subject matter of the article isnt polling

It has to do with infrastructure and notable supporters that Clinton thought she had in her corner appear to be endorsing Sanders.

If you are going to ridicule people over a posted article, at least have the common decency to read it past the headline.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 07:20 PM

60. Oh, Bob....

 

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:12 PM

7. Bernin' down the firewall!!

 

Go, Bernie...GO!!

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Response to AzDar (Reply #7)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:17 PM

68. Set to Pink Floyd's 'The Wall' of course.

 

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:31 PM

8. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, floriduck.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 11:35 PM

9. K&R!!!!

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:02 AM

13. My favorite part of the article.

<snip>

There are several factors suggesting an opening for Sanders to mount a strong challenge to the Democratic frontrunner – if he plays his ground game right.

The powerful Culinary Union that represents 60,000 members, multiple sources said, is expected to remain neutral and offer no endorsement until after the caucuses. In 2008, the union backed Obama about three weeks before the caucuses.

<snip>

That sounds to me like the union is taking a more favorable approach to HRC than it did eight years ago. How exactly does that "suggest an opening" for Sanders?

So Clinton still maintains a huge lead in the polls, but because some random super delegate likes Sanders, and because he's expending some actual resources in the state - poof! She's in trouble!

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:37 AM

18. I lived in northern Nevada

HRC will win Nevada

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #18)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:00 AM

24. The article didn't suggest otherwise.

It simply said she may not win it big enough for it to be a firewall based on a shift of support from Clinton to Sanders as well as increased infrastructure spending. Being a Caucus state, the right support and the right infrastructure can make a big enough difference to take it from strategic to marginal victory. That's how Obama managed to neutralize the Clinton win there in 2008.

If Clinton needs a firewall when NV rolls around, that implies Sanders momentum. If Sanders doesn't have momentum, the whole firewall exercise is unnecessary.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #24)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:07 AM

25. HRC has LV and Reno and the itty bitty towns

along the way. I expect her to do extremely well

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Response to underthematrix (Reply #25)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:37 AM

26. Again, that isn't in dispute.

But if she needs a firewall, it may not serve as one because she has to meet or exceed expectations if it is to be one. In the face of the Sanders momentum (that is required for this discussion to even be worth having) she would be fighting that and the erosion and possible erosion of her support that the article describes. Her winning is not the same as the state acting as a political firewall in the face of early Sanders momentum which there may or may not be.



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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:46 AM

20. Politico again.

Ho hum.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:05 AM

29. Wow, Bernie got support from a PUMA

"Erin Bilbray, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Nevada who was so loyal to Clinton in 2008 that she refused to support Obama at the convention, has endorsed the Vermont senator"

Just LOL

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Response to jfern (Reply #29)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 04:24 AM

32. So did he vote for McCain in November, 2008?

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:21 AM

30. Hillary is up 50-27. Sanders cracking firewalls again?

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Response to Alfresco (Reply #30)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:18 AM

37. Indeed.. what's up with the "cracking firewalls"?

All I see as evidence is Bernie is getting serious about trying to win in Nevada and one former Hillary supporter switched to Bernie. Not exactly "cracking firewall" type stuff to me. I dont get it.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:21 AM

38. "Cracking a firewall" may not be the best chosen words in light of the data breach.

 

Just sayin'.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

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Response to randome (Reply #38)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:33 AM

43. I'm wondering if that was intentional

A subtle way of pushing the Clinton narrative under the guise of a positive Sanders story.

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Response to randome (Reply #38)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:36 PM

49. LOL ...

 

Thread Winner!

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:29 AM

40. 50%-27%. Clinton sits pretty comfortably.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #40)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:19 PM

53. yes, but 50% doesn't a firewall make

The article isn't about Sanders winning NV. The article is about inroads being made so that she might not have as big of a win as necessary to stop the Sanders momentum.

If Sanders has no momentum, a firewall is not needed. If he does have momentum, the way things are playing out in NV at the moment indicate that Clinton might not win it by enough to stop said momentum should it exist.

Did anyone read the article or are we just debating headlines now?

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #53)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:46 PM

69. Meh. A win is... the win. game over.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #69)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 11:14 PM

77. I heard that same thing in 2008

Chances are, based on most polling, Hillary won't need a firewall, so it's probably moot. However, a win isn't just a win. Hillary won in 2008. She did so barely. Despite winning she was unable to stop Obama's momentum.

That's what the article is about. Hence, you aren't debunking anything, you are simply demonstrating that you couldn't be bothered to read anything past the headline. You might find it would be less embarrassing to actually read the posts and linked articles before trying to argue against their content.

Seriously...



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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #77)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 11:55 PM

79. I do not see this momentum. I see stalled. IF Sanders wins, I vote for him. Life goes on.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #79)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 12:57 AM

80. If you read the article it would be much easier.

The entire reason for a firewall would presupposes the momentum. It's like insurance.

In the event of Sanders success in the early primaries, NV is supposed to be the Clinton firewall--that is, the place she stops that momentum and turns everything around. As it turns out some support that she thought was squarely in her corner either a> is not, or b> has yet to commit. That makes NV less of a momentum stopper.

The article documents verifiable NV erosion, identifies possible future events, and suggest a larger ground game from Sanders than originally expected. It does not suggest there will be Sanders momentum. It suggests that, if there is, the NV caucuses may not be where it's stopped, if it is stopped.

I really don't know how to explain this any better. Why don't you read the article rather than arguing what you think the title means? Wouldn't that really just be the easier way to go about this?





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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #80)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 01:12 AM

83. We can tell ourselves whatever stories we want for the future. Merely story telling. I do not live

 

or argue in that manner.

Clinton has done the work to build a strong foundation.

We will see how successful she is.

That is about as far as I go with future story telling.

Right here. Right now. Clinton sits at 50% to Sanders what? 27%?

Watching the polls thru out the primary, she has held strong and Sanders has stalled, Imo.

We can create whatever story. I will wait to watch things unfold.

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #83)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 01:18 AM

84. Just read the fucking article. If you want to discuss it, please make your post pertain to it.

Otherwise you are wasting my time and inconveniencing large quantities of electrons in doing so.

Have a great night.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #84)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 09:20 AM

85. No, no. Really. 50 to 27. Watch out, Clinton. SC, 67-31. Momentum.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #85)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 09:46 AM

86. If you are only interested in trolling, find another bridge.

I'm here for thoughtful discussion of the article.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #86)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 12:55 PM

87. To disagree is to troll?

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #87)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 08:57 PM

88. No disagreeing is fine.

What you are doing is trolling, however.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #88)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 09:37 PM

89. Only.... In your opinion, after all.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #89)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 09:45 PM

90. It's more of a scientific theory at this point.

So far, out of an abundance of data, none has contradicted the hypothesis.

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Response to Gore1FL (Reply #90)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 10:21 PM

91. Ha. Lol. The data has been strongly on my side. Which has been my point. Yours? Hope.

 

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:42 AM

44. This is my favorite quote

The speaker originally endorsed Clinton but switched here endorsement to Sanders:

“When I hosted Bernie at my house last week, I called friends who I was positive were Clinton supporters only to find out they liked Bernie, but just didn’t think he had a chance to win,” Bilbray said. “Here in Nevada, I think I gave people permission to support what they cared about.”

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 11:18 AM

46. Matter of time.

 

It's only a matter of time until Sanders is in play in EVERY states. Voters are catching on fast and they like what they are hearing from Sanders. Sanders has only one way to go, as he gets more exposure, and that's up. Unfortunately for Clinton, she has only one way to go, and that's down.

The Clinton campaign and her supporters are very concerned. People are so tired of Wall Street and the banks screwing them. So tired.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:18 PM

50. Firewallls that don't work seem to be a problem with the Clinton Campaign.

*

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Response to bvar22 (Reply #50)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 05:30 PM

58. Yea, because the other side likes to steal things

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #58)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:59 PM

70. Help me out here...how does someone steal a Firewall?

 

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 06:37 PM

59. The progressive movement must be a reality-based movement.


http://www.scribd.com/doc/294241032/Nevada-Poll-December-28-2015-3

Look at the polling data before saying a state is in play.

If you don't, you look like a fool.

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Response to CSStrowbridge (Reply #59)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 07:57 PM

64. Fools miss the point of the article.

 

No one mentioned polling. Re-read the damn article or try reading it once.

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Response to floriduck (Reply #64)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:10 PM

66. Calling fellow Democrats fools is not going to help your cause.

You should delete that comment.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #66)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 08:14 PM

67. The term fool came from the guy above me.

 

Did you miss that?

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Response to floriduck (Reply #67)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 09:15 PM

71. No one should be calling anyone a fool here.

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Response to floriduck (Reply #67)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 01:00 AM

82. He only reads titles. n/t

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Response to floriduck (Reply #64)

Fri Jan 8, 2016, 12:59 AM

81. +1

I've been preaching the same all thread long.

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Response to floriduck (Reply #64)

Sat Jan 9, 2016, 02:22 AM

92. I read the article.

I read the article. It claims Nevada is in play. It backs that claim up with no evidence. I gave evidence that contradicts the claim in the article.

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Response to floriduck (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:15 PM

73. Huh, I wonder if there's a correlation as to how people get their news?

Smaller communities, smaller media markets, = less messaging from mass media, and more input from more intimate sources? Just thinking out loud here.

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