HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Look At This Chart and Te...

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 08:55 AM

 

Look At This Chart and Tell Me Again About "ELECTABILITY"





THIS NEEDS NO WORDS.





So, the next time someone tells you that Hillary is automatic and Bernie canít win, let them glance at this. Disregarding Bernie for a moment, how does Hillaryís company look in this chart? A sea of red.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/29/1464696/-Look-at-this-chart-and-tell-me-again-about-electability

39 replies, 4406 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 39 replies Author Time Post
Reply Look At This Chart and Tell Me Again About "ELECTABILITY" (Original post)
Segami Dec 2015 OP
upaloopa Dec 2015 #1
Vinca Dec 2015 #4
zeemike Dec 2015 #21
humbled_opinion Dec 2015 #33
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2015 #5
humbled_opinion Dec 2015 #34
zalinda Dec 2015 #9
Perogie Dec 2015 #12
rjsquirrel Dec 2015 #2
Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #3
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #6
TekGryphon Dec 2015 #19
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #23
TekGryphon Dec 2015 #25
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #27
TekGryphon Dec 2015 #29
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #31
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2015 #7
humbled_opinion Dec 2015 #35
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #8
sufrommich Dec 2015 #10
Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #11
Helen Borg Dec 2015 #13
nxylas Dec 2015 #17
Hortensis Dec 2015 #14
BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #15
Hortensis Dec 2015 #28
BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #37
Hortensis Dec 2015 #39
Gman Dec 2015 #16
restorefreedom Dec 2015 #18
TryLogic Dec 2015 #20
michreject Dec 2015 #22
robersl Dec 2015 #24
BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #38
treestar Dec 2015 #26
MohRokTah Dec 2015 #30
George II Dec 2015 #32
Dawgs Dec 2015 #36

Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:01 AM

1. You bank so damn much on that favorability thing

It isn't what effects the election. People vote for what they think is in their own best interests. This isn't a popularity contest.
Hillary has around 60% support and Bernie has around 30% and that blows your chart out of the water.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:33 AM

4. But you have to get them to the polls.

That's the problem. Hillary doesn't get the "fair weather" voters excited enough to stand in line for an hour or more to vote. Bernie does. Some people always vote, others only vote when the mood hits. This is the big risk with Hillary. She's perfectly capable of doing the job and I would vote for her if she's the nominee, but I'm one of the voters who always shows up.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Vinca (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:28 AM

21. That is 60/30 among Dems that voted in the last election.

And sense Dems represent 30 some percent of the voters it is 60% of % of the 30% who voted last time.
That is not enough to win an election...in fact if every Dem voted for her it still would not be enough.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Vinca (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:48 AM

33. and if you are asked for proof on your

claim, simply point to the landslide win followed by coat tails sweep of super majorities in House and Senate for Obama 2008 the man that excited the majority of the electorate, followed by Loss of House followed by re-election but not enough excitement to regain House followed by loss of Senate. Your point is spot on, Hillary will lead to a Donald Trump Presidency and the blindly following will be the reason for the loss of the White House. Does any HRC supporter think that she brings the excitement of BHO 2008? Why people can't see what is going on is beyond me. I still have hope that she will not be the nominee, because I know people just can't be that stupid and when they get in the voting booth and no one can see what they do they will check the box for Bernie Sanders... I think that more than anything scares the crap out of her base supporters, because they do feel that Bern....I am going to start telling people don't be scared just give and bask in the Bern.... LOL...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:39 AM

5. "People vote for what they think is in their own best interests."-- huh?

 

That has been shown to be wrong over and over in the US.

"This isn't a popularity contest."

Um, yeah, it basically is.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:51 AM

34. Voting for what is in one's best interest

seems to me to be a Republican quality not a Democratic and certainly not a Progressive quality because we understand we are all in this together.... The poster may need to rethink their commitment to Democratic principles before posting...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:42 AM

9. It's more of a popularity contest

then you want to admit. How do you think Reagan or Bush Jr got into office? Both these 2 mean had likability. Reagan because of his background as an actor and Bush Jr because people wanted to have a beer with him.

We here on DU are political junkies to a certain extent. In the real world personality counts more than any DC type wants to admit. Why do you think that Hillary's campaign is trying to dress her up as the doting grandmother, the likability factor. While she may be better than the clown car group, at least on social issues, she is not all that trusted on economic or war issues.

Z

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:55 AM

12. effect?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:02 AM

2. Meaningless

 

But nice cherry picking.

Bernie, whom I adore, has not been a national figure or candidate before this. When the GOP Goon Squad gets down to swift boating him get back to me.

Also, you don't provide dates. Are those comparisons at the same time for each election?

Pick numbers all you want. You're guessing same as anyone.

Ah I see "late stage." Since we are in an early stage those numbers mean nothing right now.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:27 AM

3. ^^This

I'm not kidding when I say that this is almost word-for-word what I was going to write.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:41 AM

6. We're all supposed to wait for this...

...cataclysmic Swiftboatting. Oh please.

No doubt, the acid-dripping vitriol will come--from the Clinton camp. The problem for them is--there's no "there" there.

Sanders has held public office for 30+ years. He's been vetted just fine. There are no skeletons. Nothing we don't all ready know.

Proof of this? The Clinton campaign is scrambling right now, because Bernie has the Iowa gap down to single digits, and he's leading in NH. Her crowds in IA are anemic and his are swelling to 2000+. When Clinton's inevitability wore off in 2008, she still had a solid core of support that kept the primary competitive for a long time. I think we're seeing evidence this time, that when her inevitability wears off, that there is real Clinton fatigue underneath those layers.

I knew we'd see some dirt thrown at Sanders, and it's been interesting to see these rather laughable "scandals" floating in the media. Sanders supposedly not wanting as many debates as O'Malley, some squabbling inside the Sanders campaign. I mean...wow.

They've got nothing.

No doubt they'll manufacture some dirty tricks. However, Sanders is smart. He can outweather the nonsense, and it won't affect his supporters, who can clearly see through the games.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #6)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:26 AM

19. And you'll likely keep waiting forever

The GOP isn't going to bother swift-boating the distant 2nd place Democratic candidate for nomination.

First Bernie Sanders needs to win over Democrats. Then he needs to worry about the general public.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TekGryphon (Reply #19)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:34 AM

23. The Swiftboatting came for Obama, from Hillary

...and that is exactly what will happen here.

You don't think Clinton is going to fight as hard as hell to keep Bernie from the nomination?

Her "treatment" of Sanders will be worse than anything the Republicans could offer.

Look what she did to Obama during the primary. Using her surrogates to bring up his drug use in youth and to imply that he was a drug dealer. She also sent Bob Kerrey into Iowa to proclaim during a press conference, "I love it that his name is Barack Hussein Obama!" Kerrey did this during a time when Republicans were accusing Obama of being a Muslim.

With regards to his "pastor" situation, when asked if Clinton believed that Obama was a Christian, she said, "I take him at his word" which did nothing to quell the controversy.

The biggest vetting that Obama experienced was from Clinton, not from the Republicans.

There's no scandal there for Bernie though.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #23)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:43 AM

25. I don't think she needs to. Bernie's problems are "in-house".

Understand, this is coming from someone who is voting and financially supporting Bernie.

Bernie's campaign has not been able to muster the energy it needs to succeed.

As I've said before, I think a large part of the problem is his supporters. He has an amazing set of economic platforms, ones that can resonate with almost anyone if explained properly. Yet look around you here on DU. How many of the top topics are discussing his platforms?

I can go weeks without seeing any.

Instead it's just a bunch of exactly what Bernie told us to NOT do from Day 1: identity politics. Frankly, the moment Bernie's most passionate supporters decided the path to the nomination was in personally attacking Hillary with outlandish conspiracy theories, and threatening to not support the Democratic Party if she wins, that's the moment Bernie Sanders lost his path to the White House.

I can't count how many times on Facebook I've seen my friends and acquaintances (who are mostly young Accountant/MBA/Lawyer circles) say "I love Bernie, I just hate Bernie supporters". It's the Ron Paul experience all over again, only this time its in our house.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TekGryphon (Reply #25)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:59 AM

27. Those are very interesting talking points

and I realize that the Clinton camp is scrambling to attack Sanders. However, the notion that Bernie has "in-house" problems is baseless nonsense.

Bernie is gaining in the polls. He doesn't have a problem.

Clinton is losing support. She's the one with the problem. And it's not Bernie. It's her foundation of failed policies and decisions and her dirty corporate money.

Maybe if you people spent less time trying to float your contrived nonsense--your candidate wouldn't be poised to lose the first two primaries.

Attacking Bernie with such fluffy drivel won't help your candidate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #27)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:23 AM

29. Your reading comprehension needs work.

I, and a strong majority of the people in my social circle, are supporting Bernie.

We're a bunch of well-educated YUPPIES, and we can separate the candidate from his supporters.

Your average progressive isn't going to do that. My offices (mental health workers, very progressive) are a great example of that.

They see the ugly-as-hell Bernie supporters advocating for burning down the Democratic Party if they don't get "their" candidate, and pushing outlandish conspiracy theories against everyone that isn't Bernie, and guess what? They turn off.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to TekGryphon (Reply #29)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:28 AM

31. No evidence that this is happening

on a large scale.

This may be happening in your little corner of the universe, but not in mine.

I hear nothing but enthusiasm for Bernie and his supporters.

Both sides have their fair share of nimrods. This is a passionate primary and emotions are running high. That's nothing earth shattering.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:41 AM

7. I think the larger point still stands

 

Net favorability tends to win elections. But yes, obviously it's still early.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:59 AM

35. LOL you have to have a past

to be swiftboarded.... John Kerry was attacked for his standing against the Vietnam war. Bernie has no such record but Hillary on the other hand has so much baggage, they will come from every angle on every issue, how is she going to fair when Monica Lewinsky, and all of the other proven or rumored affairs are being flung front and center calling in her judgement to stay in an abusive relationship, calling in her judgement and standing with the very women she claims to be protecting? Then the emails, Benghazi etc, she cannot weather those storms. Sure people that love her and support her in our party do not need convincing but that is such a small minority she cannot win unless she brings excitement and momentum which she simply doesn't do. Look in the mirror and ask yourself do you really think Hillary brings the change to Washington D.C. that we need in this country.... because people that don't know her well or don't like her at all certainly won't be voting for her.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:41 AM

8. That graphic in your op...

 

In conjunction with the recent reports of how the DNC is so mean to him, really paints an unflattering picture. Change the world but won't go out on a big safe limb with O'Malley. That is just too big of a risk. Lol

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:44 AM

10. Sanders has been virtually ignored by the GOP,that's why his

favorability rating is high.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:54 AM

11. K&R! Down with 3rd Way.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 09:59 AM

13. You are full of it!

Gore "lost"!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Helen Borg (Reply #13)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:18 AM

17. I was going to mention that

Gore didn't lose.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:03 AM

14. ALL our most effective presidents worked WITHIN the

established systems in place when they took office. No revolutionaries in office, not even George Washington.

The good news for Bernie is that he is not nearly the iconoclast some of his supporters here imagine -- in spite of this stuff. He voted Democratic 98% of the time during a fairly undistinguished quarter-century career in Congress. Undoubtedly as president Bernie would continue to work for a pragmatic level of change that could be accomplished -- working as much as possible with Congress to get it done. A continuation of what President Obama has begun.

The degree of change regardless of whether it is Bernie or Hillary will, of course, depend very much on the composition of Congress and the ideologies and personal needs of its members.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Hortensis (Reply #14)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:15 AM

15. You are using common sense, LOL.

That is not a quality often in evidence on DU lately. Thanks.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:20 AM

28. Three branches of government, bicameral congress,

Supreme Court justices who believe they have the right to appoint presidents and keep their thumbs firmly on the right side of the scale. Oh, yes. It's ALL about Bernie vs. Hillary.

I'm reading Meg Greenfield's very interesting account of her years as a DC insider, BlueM. "All durable success in political/governmental Washington--all winning, all achieving--is derivative and dependent." No matter how much some self-aggrandizing gasbags might claim otherwise, all real, enduring successes are the product of many.

Which also brings us back to the subject of electibility -- as the product of the efforts of many. "Success" only moves from the realm of hope to that of possibility after being elected, and doesn't every Democratic operative in the nation have the electibility of candidates who want their endorsement and support burned into his and her brain.

Bernie's almost complete failure to gather a large group of fellow legislators who believe he is their best choice for making it happen is by far the largest reason I do not support him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Hortensis (Reply #28)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 07:01 AM

37. This ...

all real, enduring successes are the product of many


In a nutshell. Have a happy and healthy New Year! May we all see many, many real, enduring successes in 2016!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #37)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 07:21 AM

39. Great wish, BlueM! The same for you, and all of us.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:16 AM

16. Somebody wasted a lot of time

In Excel? Really?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:26 AM

18. bitchin post, segami!

and if we change the gore to "won" since he did actually win, the table becomes even more striking

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:27 AM

20. Another indication that Al Gore was the victim of a rigged election

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:30 AM

22. What's being hidden

that 2012 was omitted?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:35 AM

24. Time Travel?

How did you get your hands on the September-November 2016 favorability data?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to robersl (Reply #24)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 07:04 AM

38. Thanks for providing a chuckle for me

on this dreary New Year's Eve morning!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:55 AM

26. He's got to win the primary first

So he's got to convince the Democrats to nominate him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:23 AM

30. That's some pretty damned ridiculous nonsense right there. eom

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 11:47 AM

32. That's just one narrow criteria - there are many more aspects of a candidate......

.....to consider before voting.

Plus, if you look at the details of that chart, you'll see that it is based on the two months prior to the election, not a year before the election and many months before the nominees are determined - neither Sanders nor Clinton have "2016" favorability ratings, just 2015 ratings.

If "favorable" vs. "unfavorable" is the primary criteria, Taylor Swift would be elected President.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Segami (Original post)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 12:12 PM

36. ...

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread