Nate just updated 538. You are gonna love the Now-Cast picture! end of bounce? Nope!

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[C_U_L8R]

1. Holy Cannolli !!

I like it very much.

[TroyD]

2. is Nate doing a Nov 6 forecast tonight too? n/t

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. yes go to the link and click - just a shade off 80%.

[abumbyanyothername]

4. If only

If only I could go to the link and click.

I used up my Nate for September.

[mucifer]

6. Sometimes if you google the exact article you can sneek into the NYtimes.

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. you should be able to - I don't pay, you can't read the whole article but can get the graphics on

the right - at least I can!

[Aviation Pro]

28. Google '538'...

....the Times allows links to go through.

[mucifer]

5. What does Nate say about retaining the senate? That is a beautiful OP!

[TroyD]

10. I think the Senate depends on Elizabeth Warren

If Warren can beat Brown (up in the air right now) then I think the Senate is safe.

Bill Nelson appears to be out of the woods in Florida, and I think McCaskill will end up beating Akin.

Kaine will probably pull it out in VA.

Heinrich appears to be solid in NM.

I think Baldwin will unfortunately have trouble winning in WI against Thompson, but that could improve too.

ND is a question mark as is MT.

[grantcart]

11. don't forget ME is going from R to I.

[mucifer]

13. Is that a Sanders I or a Lieberman I ?

[grantcart]

17. i think its a real (Maine) I. We will get him 65% of the time.

[TroyD]

16. Correct, thanks : )

We're assuming that Angus King is going to caucus with the Democrats. : )

Hopefully we don't get a surprise and he goes to the other side.

Most seem to think he leans left.

[grantcart]

18. and vote with us most of the time

[Ebadlun]

50. Seems pretty big on green issues

Also anti-filibuster, so hopefully he'll support a few cloture votes on principal.

[central scrutinizer]

8. Sam Wang at Princeton agrees

http://election.princeton.edu/

lots of good info and links

[Tnliberallee]

9. How sweet it is.......................

LOVE THIS

[calimary]

31. Welcome to DU! Glad you're here!

I love this too, BUT - let's NOT get complacent!!!! We don't have this one locked up yet. DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!! Remember what Mad-Eye Moody told Harry Potter:

"CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!!!!!"

Point being: Do NOT lull yourself into letting down your guard, and slack off working for this as though your life depended on it. This ISN'T a done deal yet.




Now get to work.

[TroyD]

12. Nate Silver: median bookmaker has Obama as a 73% favorite

The median bookmaker has Obama as a 4/11 (73%) favorite

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/245671301094727680

[rurallib]

14. Mitt's chances of winning are about to equal his % of black votes

call him "Mr. Zero!"

[TroyD]

15. POLITICO = Obama 319, Romney 219

Politico has updated their 2012 Swing States map tonight.

Obama is 100 EV ahead of Romney (319 vs 219)

Obama leads in all swing states except Virginia and North Carolina. (They may have Virginia in Romney's column because of the controversial Gravis poll I posted earlier). If better polling comes out for Virginia with Obama ahead, that may shift blue as well.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

[Stardust]

44. Lawrence O'Donnell interviewed Virgil Goode tonight, who is predicted to snag at least four points

from Romney in Virginia.

<--- he's yelling O-ba-ma!

[jillan]

19. We still have to get people to the polls to vote to make this really happen. I want to see Mitt get

a spanking!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

37. GOtV good for a solid win but also good for Down-Ticket seats too. nt

[flamingdem]

41. He might enjoy that

so much we don't know about Willard!

[Generic Brad]

20. When do we invoke the mercy rule?

Is at at 330 electoral votes or 350?

[TroyD]

22. NEVER

You never give mercy to a Republican.

You should know that.

Rule #1 is to never trust a Republican or underestimate the extent one will go in order to win. Never remove your boot from a Republican's backside.

[indie_voter]

25. No Mercy. Ever. Not with this crew.

I'd love to see an old fashioned drubbing.

[calimary]

32. NEVER. Or, put it another way.

Show them exactly as much mercy as they show us.

And we all know how much THAT is. Hint: It matches romney's approval rating with blacks.

Taste of their own medicine. See how they like it. And call it KARMA.

[David in Canada]

47. N-E-V-E-R

Many people don't realise that margins of victory matter.

Remember, FDR got Social Security passed in 1937 after winning 60+% of the popular vote and crushing Alf Landon like a bug 523-8 in the electoral college.

LBJ got most of his Great Society reforms passed after winning 61% of the popular vote and walloping Bary Goldwater 486-52 in the electoral college.

Ronald Reagan had a big upper hand in negotiations with Tip O'Neill with his 58% victory and 525-13 ass kicking of Walter Mondale.

The bigger the margin, the bigger the mandate. Near 60% victories are nigh impossible in this polarised environment but all progressive Americans should work for Obama to get over 55% of the popular vote and Romney's electoral college count to be mired in double digits. Even if your state is heavily Republican and voting Democrat is futile, vote anyway. Every vote for Obama is one more dent in the teabaggers armour.

[broadcaster75201]

21. Do NOT care one bit

Register. Vote. Run up the score. Then get back to me the day after election day. Then we'll chat.

[daybranch]

23. absolutely.

These polls are distractions and we have to stay old school- knock on doors, phonebank, talk to neighbors, register democratsa etc. We need to win big to get rid of the House Teabaggers in gerrymandered states like Ohio.

[LongTomH]

42. +1000

I don't think they can win in a fair fight; but, if we let them, the evil GOP bastards can still steal this one!

[frazzled]

43. I'll put it another way

Let's not get cocky, or count our chickens before they hatch, or put the wrong juju on all of this and end up with egg all over ourselves.

The remedy is the same: Register. Vote. Run up the score.

[Doctor Jack]

24. I think we are starting to get to the point where everyday that passes...

...things get more bleak for Romney. The election is only some 50 odd days away. Everyday that he continues to lag is another day lost. This isn't 6 months out anymore. The odds of him shooting up into the lead are becoming less and less likely. The democratic convention was a week ago Obama shows few signs of his bounce fading. That is not good sign for the GOP. The more time that passes, the more people are going to be locked into the their choice for president and the fewer undecided votes Romney will be able to grab to attempt to close the gap (i read he needs about 80% of remaining undecideds right now to squeak out a win).

Soon we could get to the point where likelihood of him winning is virtually 0%. And that will be very, very soon unless he makes up some major ground in an extremely short amount of time. The way he has been fumbling around lately makes that seem very unlikely.

[BlueStreak]

26. Intrade is up substantially too

Before the conventions, Intrade was 56%. Now it is over 61%

[Historic NY]

27. While it may be good news its depends on the GOTV...

we must not sit on our laurels.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

38. Right. Lots of factors make this a close but very winnable election. Sustain effort on all fronts.nt

[Politicub]

29. Mandate mandate cha cha cha!

[NRaleighLiberal]

30. by the way, I fully hope we can celebrate good news/trends AND GOTV and not be apathetic!

[DemKittyNC]

33. hehe

I can't wait to show my republican parents this. Their little repug minds are going to explode.

[tomm2thumbs]

34. Paint it BLUE!!!! Paint it BLUE!!!!

Seriously, this Romney fella is really making a bad name for himself

I hope he has a day job to fall back on. It looks like Ryan is trying to save his earlier day job by putting ads back up for Congress. Guess he has already figured this thing is over. Poor tike. He was trying so hard to sit at the grown-ups table too.

tsk tsk tsk

[Mojambo]

35. Those charts have got to have Romney's campaign staff shitting their pants. n/t

[rsweets]

36. GOTV

[Bernardo de La Paz]

39. GOtV.

[hfojvt]

40. he hasn't updated the House map, and the Senate map looks worse

with Wisconsin now likely Republican.

Senator Tommy Thompson.

How can I miss him if he won't go away?

[Stardust]

45. And without the House and the Senate, an Obama victory means squat. Sorry, but it's the truth. nt

[TroyD]

46. Sadly I've been expecting that

Baldwin still has a chance, but it was risky for Herb Kohl to step down in a year like this. I understand he was getting on, but Thompson has huge name recognition and he's ahead of Baldwin in almost all the polls.

It's disappointing because we just lost Russ Feingold 2 years ago. If Feingold had run, he probably would have won, but he didn't seem interested in running this year. I e-mailed him at the beginning of the year hoping he would, but it just wasn't meant to be.

[johnlucas]

48. I never believed this race was close

It's gonna be a blowout in November.
Anywhere between 10% to 20%.
It will not be close on Election Day, screw what the polls say.
John Lucas

[Atypical Liberal]

49. I am still astonished that the popular vote is so damn close to 50/50

Why is that?

Why is it that half the country is so blind to policies not in their best interest? It is depressing.