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Thu Dec 17, 2015, 08:54 AM

The Endorsement Primary

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So we’re keeping track.

Before any votes are cast, presidential candidates compete for the support of influential members of their party, especially elected officials like U.S. representatives, senators and governors. During the period known as the “invisible primary,” these “party elites” seek to coalesce around the candidates they find most acceptable as their party’s nominee. Over the past few decades, when these elites have reached a consensus on the best candidate, rank-and-file voters have usually followed.

Of course, not all endorsements are equally valuable. We use a simple weighting system: 10 points for governors, 5 points for U.S. senators and 1 point for U.S. representatives (there are roughly five times as many representatives as senators and 10 times as many representatives as governors).

In the book “The Party Decides” (2008), the most comprehensive study of the invisible primary, the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller evaluated data on endorsements made in presidential nomination contests between 1980 and 2004 and found that “early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses."

Endorsements aren’t a foolproof predictor. In 2008 , more Democrats initially endorsed Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama (although Obama had some support). Still, a steady flow of endorsements for Obama after his early successes in states like Iowa and South Carolina helped to signal that he was an acceptable choice among party elites and presaged his success in other states.

In the 2016 election cycle, the Democratic and Republican races look very different. Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead in endorsements even before launching her campaign — to an extent that’s unprecedented for a non-incumbent Democrat. But Republican insiders have been slow to rally behind a candidate.




Representatives 1 point each

Senators 5 points each

Governors 10 points each


Jeb Bush............46
Marco Rubio........34
Chris Christie.......26
Mike Huckabee....25
John Kasich.........15
Rand Paul...........15
Ted Cruz.............12
Lindsey Graham.....5
Carly Fiorina..........3
Scott Walker..........2
Rick Perry..............1
Rick Santorum.......1



Hillary Clinton.....455
Bernie Sanders.......2
Martin O'Malley...... 1

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Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Endorsement Primary (Original post)
Stuckinthebush Dec 2015 OP
Alfresco Dec 2015 #1
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #2
Stuckinthebush Dec 2015 #3
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #7
1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #11
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #12
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #4
Old Codger Dec 2015 #5
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #6
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #8
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #9
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #10
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #13
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #14
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #15
Blue_Adept Dec 2015 #16
Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #17
comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #18
jwirr Dec 2015 #19
Stuckinthebush Dec 2015 #20
jwirr Dec 2015 #21

Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 09:22 AM

1. Those numbers tell us the Democratic Party is United for Hillary.

She is Crushing Bernie in the Endorsement Primary as well.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 09:32 AM

2. I'm more amused that Trump has none.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 10:45 AM

3. Very amusing

As I was posting I kept going back and looking for those Trump numbers. Then it dawned on me that he had none. Of course that may very well benefit him as the non-establishment candidate.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:21 AM

7. There is that and it's dangerous in its own way. "Beholden to noone"

Of course, that's a positive when applied to others.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:58 AM

11. But he did get the endorsement of putin ...

 

That ought to count for something!

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #11)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:16 PM

12. Sadly

It'll count for some folks around here in a big way. At least the RT-posters are well paid for their work.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 10:51 AM

4. The party and its base are extremely unified.

 

Truly excited to have the opportunity to build of the success of Obama. Tons of work ahead.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:10 AM

5. So

 

the status quo appreciates the status quo...

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:16 AM

6. It's a good thing that congress is held in such high esteem by the voters.

 

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:22 AM

8. The flip side

is that while congress ranks low, if you poll in-state you find that most support "their" representatives.

I have a very low opinion of congress as a whole.

But would I have my senators of Markey and Warren removed, for example?

So I can rank low but hold my own senators in high regard as well as the reps that are in my district.

So saying overall approval is low doesn't really mean much.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:38 AM

9. Then why are the endorsements held up as benchmarks?

 

To influence voters who hold congress in low esteem? To influence voters who like their reps? Or, is it just a commercial?

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:40 AM

10. Because those who endorse typically stump for the candidates

And that gets a lot of press, a lot of PR in general, and motivates a lot of people and activitists.

Again, we're not talking congress in terms of endorsements. We're talking individuals. Combine that with shared email/fundraiser lists and it's a key part of building the machine needed for the general.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #10)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:19 PM

13. So, it's about commercials?

 

Do you think that most voters are swayed by commercials, endorsements, polls?

I'm serious. I see all these poll posts/battles as irrelevant as to how most people here will vote. And, I also think that they should be irrelevant as to how anyone votes.

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #13)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:21 PM

14. At lot of people use it as a data point in their own figuring of things

If you were a big supporter of local/state/national candidate X, using Markey as an example, and you see that he supports Clinton, then you'll make the connection that they likely have similar positions.

it's a positive reinforcement. but as I said, it's more than that as it opens up a lot of local area activism, mailing lists, communication and more. It's about the infrastructure building of a national campaign.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #14)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:22 PM

15. IOW commercials.

 

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #15)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:27 PM

16. If that's all you're going to take away from it, fine

It misses the bigger picture and the influence it all has.

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #16)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:39 PM

17. I view it as an indicator of how corrupt our political system is.

 

As you said, it helps raise money for the campaigns. Yet, the candidates themselves decry the corrosive effect of money in politics while seeking more of it.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:45 PM

18. The senators, governors and representatives are also

convention super delegates. Hillary has more than 440 super delegate endorsements. Bernie has 2. 2250 delegate votes are needed to win the nomination. Granted super delegates can change their minds but Hillary and Bill have campaigned for many of the elected Democrats while Bernie has not supported Democratic candidates in the past. It seems that having friends is a better strategy than being the lone ranger in politics.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Original post)

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 06:21 PM

19. That is usually true. But if you have not noticed there is a

great deal of anger in this election regarding the corporations and the establishment. When I see another endorsement from either of these sources it just confirms what I think of Hillary - bought and owned. The DNC and the establishment voters are just as owned as she is. Likewise all those corporate donations show the same thing.

We have watched it for over 40 years now. Both the Bernie and Trump show the kind of anger that is a real thing among the people today. I do not remember this kind of anger any time since I started to vote in 1960.

It does not make me want to vote for her. Using super-delegates to win instead of primary results will only increase the anger people feel for her. It will not help her win.

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Response to jwirr (Reply #19)

Fri Dec 18, 2015, 07:39 AM

20. Not disagreeing about anger toward congress

There is that, yes. However it is reflected in the GOP polls against the establishment candidates, but not the Dem polls. Clinton's differential in both polling of the base and in endorsements from super delegates makes this an Everestesque climb for Sanders.

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Response to Stuckinthebush (Reply #20)

Fri Dec 18, 2015, 11:10 AM

21. Watch and see. If you are only looking at what the establishment

wants you are missing a whole lot of us on the bottom.

And rather you mean it or not you are saying we do not count and that is exactly what Hillary and her super-delegates who are not elected delegates are saying. That they will override the wishes of the people.

BTW in the past most super-delegates have followed the wishes of their own primaries. They need to see how we feel about them also.

Many of these problems are why so many on the left talk about either not voting for her in the general or leaving the party and starting our own peoples party.

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