Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA couple interesting takeaways from the latest Monmouth Iowa poll.
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9a435a5e-2c3d-4b5d-b0ea-a45c5192af0a.pdfRegardless of your feelings on the methodology, there were a few paragraphs that I haven't seen mentioned in any of the threads related to this poll.
Among past primary voters only, Clinton currently leads Sanders by a larger 27 point margin 57% to 30%. Still, this is down from the 65% to 24% lead she held among this particular electorate in Monmouths last poll which was taken shortly after the first Democratic candidate debate, Clintons Benghazi Committee appearance, and Joe Bidens decision not to run
So going by Monmouth's previous metrics, Bernie has gained 6 points on Hillary for a 14 point swing since late October. Then there's this:
Recognizing the historical volatility in Democratic caucus turnout, Monmouth tested a few vote simulations in addition to the reported projection above. Increasing the model to a turnout of approximately 150,000 voters which would be the second highest turnout on record would slightly narrow Clintons lead over Sanders to 19 points (54% to 35%). Increasing it still further to approximately 200,000 voters near 2008s all-time high would shrink Clintons lead to 13 points (51% to 38%)
The more people show up to vote the better Bernie does. Iowa is going to be close, and with most people yet to make up their minds about who they support it appears that anything could happen.
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
5 replies, 943 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (3)
ReplyReply to this post
5 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
A couple interesting takeaways from the latest Monmouth Iowa poll. (Original Post)
HerbChestnut
Dec 2015
OP
MADem
(135,425 posts)1. Could you edit, and include the LINK to the poll? TIA. nt
MADem
(135,425 posts)4. Thanks! nt
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)3. Past primary voters, as if no new voters could possibly
have become eligible in the past 8 years. What an interesting assumption.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)5. To be fair
They essentially did two polls. One with only past primary voters and another with "anybody". This included people who said they'd be registering on the night of the caucus. How they found those people I have no idea, but there it is.