2016 Postmortem

TroyD

(4,551 posts) Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:13 AM Sep 2012

Nate Silver's Sept 4 Update: 76% Chance of Obama Win

Updated 10:59 PM ET on Sept. 4

ELECTORAL VOTE

OBAMA = 310.9

ROMNEY = 227.1

----

CHANCE OF WINNING

OBAMA = 76.3%

ROMNEY = 23.7%

----

POPULAR VOTE

OBAMA = 51.2%

ROMNEY = 47.7%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

8 replies

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Highlight:

Nate Silver's Sept 4 Update: *76% Chance of Obama Win* (Original Post) TroyD Sep 2012 OP

I'm so thrilled to read that! napi21 Sep 2012 #1

I hope so too TroyD Sep 2012 #2

K&R SunSeeker Sep 2012 #3

His blog post seems to be saying that he expects Romney is going to lose the election Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #4

Silver: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite TroyD Sep 2012 #5

I've thought for a while the dynamics of this election are most similar to 1996. Denninmi Sep 2012 #6

Dole & Romney TroyD Sep 2012 #7

Troy, because of right-wing hate radio and Faux Gnus there is today an alternate reality/fact free mikekohr Sep 2012 #8

napi21

(45,806 posts)

1. I'm so thrilled to read that!

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:23 AM

Sep 2012

I know my own feelings, but I try very hard to be objective when I think about who's going to win. After watching the Pub convention last week, and the Dem Convention (only the opening day), I can't even imagine any sane human voting for Rob-me & whinein' Ryan!

Last week, I read an article about pollsters and which ones were worth paying attention to, and the first one mentioned was 538.

I sure hope they're right this time!

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

2. I hope so too

Reply to napi21 (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:30 AM

Sep 2012

Nate's numbers seem almost too good to be true sometimes.

I hope he is right!

SunSeeker

(51,545 posts)

3. K&R

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:37 AM

Sep 2012

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

4. His blog post seems to be saying that he expects Romney is going to lose the election

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 08:46 AM

Sep 2012

Is anyone else getting that impression?

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

5. Silver: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:44 PM

Sep 2012

http://t.co/hw4FY1ea

Denninmi

(6,581 posts)

6. I've thought for a while the dynamics of this election are most similar to 1996.

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 01:52 PM

Sep 2012

Dole just never "caught fire" in the minds of most people. Clinton was controversial and had issues already at that point, but he clearly was the better choice.

Of course, no 2 elections are the same, but Romney is running a poor campaign, has no real message, and is floundering much like Dole.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

7. Dole & Romney

Reply to Denninmi (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 02:21 PM

Sep 2012

The difference though is that Clinton had a huge lead over Dole all year.

Romney is much closer to Obama in the polls than Dole was to Clinton.

mikekohr

(2,312 posts)

8. Troy, because of right-wing hate radio and Faux Gnus there is today an alternate reality/fact free

Reply to TroyD (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 5, 2012, 09:21 PM

Sep 2012

universe in which about 46-47% (The Republican base) of the American People live. The polls are so static because all but a tiny percentage have made up their minds. Romney can only win by lies, a massive cash advantage and voter suppression. Can this work? Yes. Is it likely? No.

Nate Silver's prognostication of a 76% probability of President Obama winning is probably dead on.

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