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Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:49 PM

New Hampshire Monmouth Poll Skew Explained

46 replies, 4106 views

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Reply New Hampshire Monmouth Poll Skew Explained (Original post)
jkbRN Nov 2015 OP
JaneyVee Nov 2015 #1
jkbRN Nov 2015 #3
JaneyVee Nov 2015 #5
jkbRN Nov 2015 #6
JaneyVee Nov 2015 #10
jkbRN Nov 2015 #12
Agschmid Nov 2015 #20
JaneyVee Nov 2015 #29
jkbRN Nov 2015 #8
workinclasszero Nov 2015 #35
jfern Nov 2015 #39
Cali_Democrat Nov 2015 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #27
Historic NY Nov 2015 #4
jkbRN Nov 2015 #7
Adrahil Nov 2015 #9
jkbRN Nov 2015 #11
Adrahil Nov 2015 #41
workinclasszero Nov 2015 #36
BootinUp Nov 2015 #13
MohRokTah Nov 2015 #14
sufrommich Nov 2015 #15
riversedge Nov 2015 #30
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #16
WillyT Nov 2015 #17
NCTraveler Nov 2015 #18
Agschmid Nov 2015 #19
DCBob Nov 2015 #21
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #25
PosterChild Nov 2015 #22
tishaLA Nov 2015 #23
SidDithers Nov 2015 #24
firebrand80 Nov 2015 #26
William769 Nov 2015 #28
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2015 #31
brooklynite Nov 2015 #32
NurseJackie Nov 2015 #40
tritsofme Nov 2015 #33
workinclasszero Nov 2015 #37
onenote Nov 2015 #34
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #43
okasha Nov 2015 #38
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #42
NCTraveler Nov 2015 #44
NuclearDem Nov 2015 #45
BootinUp Nov 2015 #46

Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:51 PM

1. This is just getting sad now.

 

We lambasted the rightwing for this kind of BS.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:55 PM

3. you should always make it a priority to clarify what exactly you are referring to.

"We", we who? "This kind of BS", this what? I shouldn't have to ask these questions, if you are going to make a claim make sure you explain in full what you are referring to.

Maybe if you were to watch the video your comment would have been so broad in attempting to align what I posted with right wingers. But, given the amount of time it took you to post the comment shows me you didn't watch the video, and all you wanted to do is complain. You should really look at the facts instead of playing into ignorance.

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Response to jkbRN (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:02 PM

5. We = DU. I watched the first 30 seconds and...

 

I can confirm: It is a woman with no expertise in this field holding a microphone and being in a deep state of denial.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:06 PM

6. well, again, you are walking down the road of ignorance and ignoring

the facts--and that's incredibly sad for a democratic voter.

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Response to jkbRN (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:13 PM

10. Where was her previous videos of concern when Bernie was winning?

 

I'll wait...

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:19 PM

12. were the polls skewed?

Let me know, I'll wait for an answer.

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Response to jkbRN (Reply #12)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:50 PM

20. The polls have NEVER been skewed.

They may not mean much when it comes down to it, the only poll that does is the election.

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Response to jkbRN (Reply #12)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:21 PM

29. Yes, they included Joe Biden.

 

NOW they're unskewed.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:12 PM

8. If you would like to give your brain a work out,

Check out the demographics of who was polled. When looking at that, make sure to take a close look at the number of millennials polled (18-34) and especially men.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:42 AM

35. And now the brogressives

 

jump right down the same rabbit hole as the teabaggers SMH

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Response to workinclasszero (Reply #35)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:58 AM

39. You are calling women brogressives now?

You Hillary supporters are totally off your rockers.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:52 PM

2. I never thought Bernie supporters would start trying to unskew polls like the GOPers did in 2012

 

This is pathetic.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:12 PM

27. This is sad...

EOM

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:02 PM

4. Unskewing confirms

what Ben Carson says about Americans.

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Response to Historic NY (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:07 PM

7. Im sorry, I think you may have made a typo, or two--

I don't understand what you are trying to say here

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:12 PM

9. Business as usual....

 

When the polls show Bernie gaining, it's Bernmentum! When they show Hillary gaining, the polls are obviously skewed.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:16 PM

11. I'm sorry sorry but facts cannot be disputed,

No matter how much you want to blame supporters, it's not them so please stop trying to pin everything on them. When the facts are there to back up the argument you should understand where fellow democrats are coming from.

If you find polls where pollsters skew in another candidates favor, then please post, and I can promise you that I would be standing right there next to you saying that that poll was inaccurate as I am now with the current findings.

We should be for integrity on ALL SIDES.

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Response to jkbRN (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 07:23 AM

41. I have seen no evidence of any skewing by mainstream pollsters....

 

Any single poll can be wrong. That doesn't mean it was deliberately skewed. And that's why it's better to look at many polls instead of just one.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #9)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:45 AM

36. Each and every time?

 

Its like magic!

Yeah that's what it is all right...magic.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:23 PM

13. I must have missed the video author's qualifications for un-skewing polls. nt

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:26 PM

14. MOAR POLL UNSKEWING!!!!!! K&R!!!!!

 











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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:30 PM

15. Well,that was 6 minutes I'll never get back.

Dumb.

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Response to sufrommich (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:28 PM

30. I watched her a few weeks ago when DU went skewy bonkers when Hillary started pulling

ahead (recall those zillion of posts!!!). Anyway, it is the same woman I believe based on her pic that I glimpsed. I will not waste time and listen to this one. Thanks.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:41 PM

16. Oy vey

EOM

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:45 PM

17. Thank You For That !!!

 




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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:47 PM

18. Her heart is in the right place. Nt

 

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:47 PM

19. This is an irrational reaction.

I can't believe this is a thing now on DU.

I mean seriously?

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:53 PM

21. Is that Cosmic Kitten?

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Response to DCBob (Reply #21)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:03 PM

25. You're mean.

EOM

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 09:56 PM

22. Thanks to all of the comenters,....

.... saved me the trouble of watching . Your pain was my gain so I owe you!

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:00 PM

23. bless your hearts

(I understand that's how southerners say what I'm thinking)

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:02 PM

24. ...




Sid

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:06 PM

26. Call it "Bern the Polls"

Unskewing has such a negative connotation

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:17 PM

28. Well she wasted her 15 seconds of fame.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:35 PM

31. Ancient Greek proverb: "He who spends time unskewing the polls..."

 

"...is losing."

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 10:48 PM

32. I urge all Sanders supporters to watch this...it will give you hope.

It won't be true, and it won't explain why Clinton has led in four of the seven latest polls after being behind Sanders for all ten polls in August-September, but hope is important.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #32)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 01:09 AM

40. Oh, that's just mean. (Funny, but mean.)

In a light-hearted way, of course.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 11:08 PM

33. lol, so now we've devolved to Poll Trutherism? UnSkewed!!!1!1!

Just wait, the next step from the sore loser caucus will be claims that Hillary rigged the vote and stole the election or some other such nonsense.

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Response to tritsofme (Reply #33)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:47 AM

37. Poll-Truthers

 

Yup, that fits.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:35 AM

34. I didn't bother to watch but for those that actually are interested

the main issue I've seen raised about the Monmouth poll is that the gender split of those polled was 57 percent female/43 percent male. That certainly got my attention and so I did a quick bit of research and discovered that, according to the exit polls, the gender division in New Hampshire's 2008 Democratic primary was 57% female/43% male.

In other words, the poll was simply using the most recent actual gender split as a model for the predicted split in 2016. Now no one knows whether the gender split in 2016 will be the same as it was in 2008 or whether it will be more even or more lopsided. But it's hardly unreasonable to base a poll's gender split on most recent available data.

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Response to onenote (Reply #34)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 10:08 AM

43. She also said millennials are breaking 8-1 for the Vermont independent.

The millennial vote is actually split pretty evenly if anybody cares to look.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:56 AM

38. Oh, that video.

Again.

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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 11:14 AM

44. Such passion.

 

"One YouTube user even made a six-minute conspiracy theory video that compared images from a professional Malibu commercial promoting the contest with the winner?s video, saying in part: ?Wow, the same nose!? The same guy? You be the judge!?"

"It just looks like, wow, they rigged the contest,? said Debbie Lusignan, 35, of Adams, Mass. ?I am furious. I spent 60 hours on this freaking contest.?"

http://www.webpronews.com/user-generated-video-contests-can-backfire-2007-06


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Response to jkbRN (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 11:48 AM

45. Truthiness--not just for conservatives anymore.

 

Who cares what the reliable, scientific evidence says? All that matters is what your gut tells you!

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Response to NuclearDem (Reply #45)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 11:51 AM

46. I don't trust Dubya's gut or anyone elses much more. nt

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