Bernie will not repeat Obama's Performance

[CheshireDog]

I keep seeing these threads comparing Bernie's intrade/poll numbers to Obama at the same point, and clinging to the notion that history will repeat itself. It won't for some very important reasons:

1. Bernie is no Obama. He's a great guy, very impassioned, but he is not the campaigner or orator that Obama is. Obama literally did everything right while running a historical campaign to become to first black president. There is no comparison.

2. Hillary is polling far above where she did in 2008. In Iowa, she was locked in a 3 way race and polls put her, Obama, and Edwards in a dead heat. She's on track to win Iowa this time as there is no other candidate to the right of her (Edwards) to split her vote. I expect her to get at least 55+% in Iowa. This is what launched Obama in 2008. After she wins Iowa its likely she will also win NH

3. The biggest weakness Hillary had in 2008 was running against the first plausible AA candidate. This meant she automatically lost states where AA's made up the majority of Democrats, which is most of the southern states. This time around, minorities are mostly on her side and it will be difficult for Sanders to win any states such as GA, SC, NC, LA, MS, AL, etc.

4. Hillary is much stronger this time around and she is building a ground game beyond 2008.

5. Superdelegates held out in 2008. This time they are overwhelmingly choosing Hillary before the first vote is even cast.

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. The argument I hear is that the Youth will revolt

And sweep away the old order. It is a revolution that can not be polled because the youth have no land lines.

I look forward to the voting so we can find out.

[hill2016]

3. the youth

don't vote, historically.

[Agnosticsherbet]

5. That is why it is being called a revolution.

Personally, I don't think it will happen. We will see a higher youth vote, but that is true of every general election.

[demwing]

27. And African Americans don't get elected President, historically

Funny thing about history, we're constantly rewriting the last pages.

And btw, if you're counting on less people voting in order to secure your "win," is your candidate really as progressive as you'd like to believe?

[brooklynite]

32. Neither do women...

History making indeed

[sadoldgirl]

4. No doubt that her chances are great

to win the nomination.

Is that the question you are posing?

Well, let's go a bit further then:

Even the greatest invalid among the repugs will vote
against her.
The unaffiliated will stay home and so will the youth.

And since there is now a serious split within the
party, don't count necessarily on the progressive
side to vote for her.

The SC fear may not work anymore, and in my
black neighborhood there is a lot of dislike for her.

And finally a lot of possible new dems will be
gone for 2018.

[Agnosticsherbet]

7. If progressives want to protect Social Security, marriage rights,

And other liberal programs they will vote.

If they don't vote, they don't give a damn about about progressive programs only about a glourious leader of their revolution.

We have a government elected by a majority of those who vote.

[zalinda]

9. But, she herself said she is not a progressive

or a liberal, she called herself a moderate. And, she is actually not very well liked, or trusted. Trump (hard as it is to believe) is probably more trusted than Hillary is.

Z

[Agnosticsherbet]

22. So you use the excuse that she would sign bills ending these programs.

Those programs passed by Republicans who will be busy impeaching her because, among other things, she is to liberal. Now that's breathtaking.

[Robbins]

31. She is no liberal

She and republicans will be working together on trade deals,more war,cutting social safety set,and increasing defense budget not to mention beng for wall street.

[virtualobserver]

34. she loves reaching across the aisle for that sort of thing....

but that won't stop them from impeaching her.

[Robbins]

35. Of course

They impeached Bill Clinton yet he signed their repeal of glass seageall.It will be the same.theater to appeal to tea party types while they work on things to benefit the top 1%

[Agschmid]

26. Yup.

[treestar]

25. Republicans always turn out

that is their strength. That's why they have the power they have.

[workinclasszero]

19. Sure they will

Smallest group of voters, thats a fact.

If Bernie thinks they will save him, he's done already.

Plus he cannot overcome Hillary's strength with PoC.

They are the base of the party and he cannot win without them.

[Agnosticsherbet]

21. I agree with everything you wrote.

The beauty of the argument using a massive youth revolt with voters who never voted before and who use only cellphones is that it can not be disproved using polls or historical voting patterns.

I suspect, when the youth revolution does not occur the blame will be placed on a massive conspiracy to steal the votes of the revolution.

[workinclasszero]

36. Right

The oligarchy strikes again.

The thing is even BHO didn't win exclusively with the youth vote. He also had the PoC vote.

Bernie definitely doesn't have that.

[Gothmog]

2. Hillary Clinton has also hired all of the key Obama people in Iowa

President Obama built an amazing operation in Iowa. I worked with some of the Obama people from Iowa during the 2008 Texas two step and they were great (some key people came straight to Texas after Iowa). The ground game is critical in Iowa and the Clinton forces are building a great ground game which she did not have in 2008

[oasis]

6. Exactamundo. (eom)

[Flying Squirrel]

8. No, Bernie will not repeat Obama's performance:

He will not continue the selling out of our country.

[SoapBox]

10. ^^^Totally This!^^^

But she will.

[Live and Learn]

11. Of course not, Bernie will stick to his principles. Always has, always will.

It is not easy to do in the political world (ask Hillary) but he does it.

[Thinkingabout]

12. He will not follow Obama as president so no he will not repeat Obama's performance.

[Samantha]

13. Well, yes there is a comparison

1. Sanders hired the same team Obama utilized to run his campaign. In fact, people on that team were jumping up and down wanting to assist Sanders. That team did some amazing things for Obama and it looks to me like they are doing great for Sanders as well -- not to detract from Obama's direct appeal to the public, he deserves a lot of credit. But Sanders is doing a tremendous job himself at appealing to the public, including some Republicans.

2. Hilliary has been doing a lot of heavy-duty advertising for some time now. Naturally she should be ahead of Sanders who has done none, zero, nada. He starts in November. There are many, many people who will be introduced to him for the first time through his advertising campaign, and I believe this will make a remarkable difference. Stay tuned. And I would not count Iowa as a win yet. It is a caucus state, which is harder to predict and CBSYouGov has Sanders down only by 3, DMR/Bloomberg has Sanders down 7. Yes, two pollsters give Clinton huge leads (Monmouth and Loras College) but there is just too big a swing among the pollsters to predict much of anything, especially since Clinton has that heavy advertising advantage. And Sanders has a modest lead in New Hampshire, so I would not call that state just yet either.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

3. It also is too early to tell what will happen in the Southern States. Sanders is opening campaign offices in different states and has a lot of work yet to be done there.

4. Hillary is not much stronger this time than in 2008. She has pulled some huge mistakes, especially that well-known political maneuver of purloining her strongest opponent's planks. Historically, Hillary has always demonstrated she is a very intelligent, astute politician but this time is starting to look like just another Third Wayer who will do what it takes to win and should she do so, compromise on issues in ways true progressives will decry. Hillary was much stronger when she was the true, real Hillary than the candidate she is today.

5. So? All a candidate has to do while the primaries are going on is win a simple majority, and I believe Bernie is totally capable of doing this.

It is really getting tiresome to keep reading on this site so many supporters of Hillary's implying this contest is a done deal. This contest is just getting started.

Sam

[MasonDreams]

14. Bernie isn't even "acting". His record/resume is Better!

Voters know Bernie by his deeds. Action based on principle.
No scripted performance, no calculated flipping, no bait &switch,
and no shuck & jive. SANDERS FOR PRESIDENT!

[slipslidingaway]

15. Well I hope not, one of the first things he did was negotiate a deal with "Billy" ...

remember during his campaign he ran a political ad against Billy Tauzin and then once elected sought and then procured a deal with pharma to back his HC plan.

HC was the number one issue when he first ran for office, but Obama not only abandoned his prior beliefs, he marginalized those seeking a national HC system.

There must be some way for a smart politician to advance an issue while at the same time try to pass a bill that they think is possible at the moment.

[slipslidingaway]

16. Obama: Billy

[workinclasszero]

17. You are right

And I think it's so funny that people think Bernie is going to do what Obama did.

Its kind of an insult to the president imo, like anyone could do what he did.

Bernie is no BHO, some people need to get real.

[slipslidingaway]

20. I think it is funny that people accept a politician doing an about face and just dismiss their words

from their actions.

Part of Obama's HC plan was to reign in drug prices under Medicare, I think the figure he cited in his plan was that Medicare could save 300 billion per year... it is in my journal somewhere.

All that was swept under the rug when he made a deal with Billy Tauzin a few months after taking office.

I can imagine Hillary selling us down the same road as she changes positions or says I'm sorry for getting the vote wrong.

[LuvLoogie]

33. Bernie voted for the ACA.

He could have held out and made Reid submit Conyers' Single-Payer bill for scoring by the CBO. Maybe Bernie should not have waited until 2013 to write one of his own?

[slipslidingaway]

18. How Big Pharma's Billy Tauzin conned the White House out of $76 billion.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/prescriptions/2009/08/obamas_biggest_health_reform_blunder.html

"Billy Tauzin, president of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, has cut a secret deal on health reform with the White House. Tauzin told Tom Hamburger of the Los Angeles Times that in exchange for the much-touted $80 billion in savings that PhRMA volunteered in June to help cover the uninsured and reduce drug prices for some senior citizens, the White House had promised to block any congressional effort to allow the government to negotiate Medicare drug prices. Tauzin is from Louisiana, where tall tales grow like weeds, and at first his assertion seemed wildly implausible. But two days after the L.A. Times scoop, the New York Times got White House confirmation. "The president encouraged this approach," White House deputy chief of staff Jim Messina said in an e-mail. "He wanted to bring all parties to the table to discuss health insurance reform."


President Obama's handshake with Tauzin is easily the dumbest mistake he's made in shepherding health reform through Congress...."

[99Forever]

23. Reminds me of what they say about opinions...

... and the traits they share with something else we all have.

[treestar]

24. +1

That meme has never held water at all. BS is not going to win just because Obama did.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. It is rarely a good idea to make political predictions.

There are always too many wild cards, and this is truly the weirdest election season I can remember (and I go back a ways). It's true that Bernie isn't Obama. He's somebody else entirely, with a completely different style, operating in a completely different political climate. But it's a climate that doesn't favor the "establishment," which the people are finally realizing has screwed them badly. Anything can happen. The only person who has ever been consistently accurate in his predictions is Bill Kristol, who is always wrong. Find out what Kristol is saying; the opposite will probably happen.

[Robbins]

29. I see Clinton Supporters are at it again

1:The DNC under Dean wasn't trying to fix it for Clinton like DWS is.I might strongly disagree with him for now endorsing Clinton but he didn't try to fix it for Clinton In 2007/2008

2:The MSM has a laregly media blackout of Bernie and does all it can to dismiss him.Opposite of Obama since he like clinton is
corporate dem.Bernie is real deal

3:You think polls will stay the same as in febrayry as they do in late october?That really ahppens.At this time in 2003 Dean was ahead In Iowa and In 2007 Clinton was ahead In Iowa.Edwards ran to left in 2007/2008.

4:Untill after Iowa blacks were supporting Clinton.Young voters and anti-war white liberals were Obama's support till them.granted he sold us all out.

5:The dem establishment decried long ago that Clinton would be nominee.The centrists and corporists all are rushing to support
the corporist and centrist clinton.others are eather fake liberals or afaird of clintons.

This campagin is battle for the democratic party is liberal and progressive party or a centrist and corporate and neocon party.Bernie wins it's a liberal and progressive aprty.Clinton wins it is a centrist,corporate,and neocon party.

[Bobbie Jo]

37. Wut?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

30. Good. It would great if we had a progressive in the WH rather than another centrist.

[whatchamacallit]

38. Hillary is no Obama either

If it's not instructive comparing Sanders to Obama, it's also not instructive comparing these election dynamics to 2008. It's a different situation and the rules have changed. Bernie doesn't need to be Obama. Bernie just needs to be Bernie.