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Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:42 PM

Clinton just briefly crested 90% likelihood for the Democratic nomination

Last edited Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:42 PM - Edit history (2)

Predictive markets are breaking heavily for Clinton.

http://www.predictwise.com

Likelihood of nomination:

HRC - 90%
BS - 10%
MOM - 0%

92 replies, 6879 views

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Reply Clinton just briefly crested 90% likelihood for the Democratic nomination (Original post)
Godhumor Oct 2015 OP
Name removed Oct 2015 #1
L0oniX Oct 2015 #2
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #3
ffr Oct 2015 #5
Starry Messenger Oct 2015 #10
JimDandy Oct 2015 #35
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #40
JimDandy Oct 2015 #45
upaloopa Oct 2015 #56
JimDandy Oct 2015 #58
MrMickeysMom Oct 2015 #77
Gman Oct 2015 #81
PosterChild Oct 2015 #53
Cha Oct 2015 #65
Gothmog Oct 2015 #84
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #89
riversedge Oct 2015 #8
LineLineLineReply -
L0oniX Oct 2015 #9
Scootaloo Oct 2015 #17
Martin Eden Oct 2015 #22
artislife Oct 2015 #23
whatchamacallit Oct 2015 #33
forest444 Oct 2015 #34
stonecutter357 Oct 2015 #46
thesquanderer Oct 2015 #50
KoKo Oct 2015 #82
azmom Oct 2015 #4
riversedge Oct 2015 #11
azmom Oct 2015 #19
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #41
murielm99 Oct 2015 #55
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #59
ffr Oct 2015 #6
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #7
Godhumor Oct 2015 #12
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #13
Godhumor Oct 2015 #15
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #16
livetohike Oct 2015 #21
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #31
Godhumor Oct 2015 #24
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #30
demosincebirth Oct 2015 #88
oasis Oct 2015 #28
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #27
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #32
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #36
restorefreedom Oct 2015 #49
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #57
thesquanderer Oct 2015 #47
RichVRichV Oct 2015 #52
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #42
Ed Suspicious Oct 2015 #64
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #66
Ed Suspicious Oct 2015 #67
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #73
NorthCarolina Oct 2015 #68
Armstead Oct 2015 #14
Scootaloo Oct 2015 #18
onecent Oct 2015 #39
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #29
PowerToThePeople Oct 2015 #20
Sheepshank Oct 2015 #25
riversedge Oct 2015 #26
onecent Oct 2015 #37
workinclasszero Oct 2015 #38
Thinkingabout Oct 2015 #43
SunSeeker Oct 2015 #44
Helen Borg Oct 2015 #48
upaloopa Oct 2015 #54
stonecutter357 Oct 2015 #51
SmittynMo Oct 2015 #60
wendylaroux Oct 2015 #61
McKim Oct 2015 #62
Jim Lane Oct 2015 #63
SoapBox Oct 2015 #69
OnlinePoker Oct 2015 #70
humbled_opinion Oct 2015 #71
99Forever Oct 2015 #72
NonMetro Oct 2015 #74
SidDithers Oct 2015 #75
DCBob Oct 2015 #76
FloridaBlues Oct 2015 #78
MrMickeysMom Oct 2015 #79
LibDemAlways Oct 2015 #80
Gothmog Oct 2015 #83
Gothmog Oct 2015 #85
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2015 #86
Flying Squirrel Oct 2015 #87
Mark Grable Oct 2015 #90
Gothmog Nov 2015 #91
Mark Grable Jan 2016 #92

Response to Godhumor (Original post)


Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:46 PM

2. So there's a 90% chance the oligarchy will win.

 

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Response to L0oniX (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:48 PM

3. I had read some post wanting the nomination to go to Sanders with perhaps 25%

Now this would constitute an oligarchy, government ruled by the few.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:52 PM

5. I see what you did there.



Clever in rebuttal.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:00 PM

10. Ha!

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:45 PM

35. Naw, more like the Clinton Superdelegates.

You know, the delegates who answer only to Clinton instead of a vote of the people. That Oligarchy.

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Response to JimDandy (Reply #35)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:53 PM

40. Wrong again, do some research on superdelegates, their vote at the convention counts like the

Dedicated delegates. Sanders has been in Congress for twenty five years, has had much more time to establish a relationship with other congressional members than HRC has had. I would think if Sanders had received the endorsements from super delegates and the super delegates would be what handed him the nomination you would be happy.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #40)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:04 PM

45. Wrong again. Superdelegates circumvent democracy-the vote of the people

I have always been against the use of Superdelegates.

That was my point: your 25% story was someone's wishful thinking. The reality is Superdelegates can actually overturn the results of a popular majority vote. And these superdelegates ARE the ruling (and nearly always rich) Oligarchy: US Governors, The President and all 450 members of the DNC, including Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

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Response to JimDandy (Reply #45)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:14 PM

56. 60% of the people want Hillary

Things are as they should be

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #56)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:22 PM

58. I go by votes. The polls are not reflecting what I hear on the ground

or read on the net. We'll all see soon. Until then, I'm giving it all I got to help get Bernie Sanders the nomination.

What will be, will be...Bernie.



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Response to upaloopa (Reply #56)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:00 PM

77. "Things are as they SHOULD be"???

.... Okay...

How SHOULD they be? And, who informed you of that?

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Response to JimDandy (Reply #45)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:15 PM

81. Wrong again those rules were put in place by grassroots

people who are real Democrats. Not like an independent trying to take advantage of a party structure he did nothing to build.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:11 PM

53. +100 !! (NT)

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:08 PM

65. Excellent, T!

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:28 PM

84. The highest that I have seen Sanders is about 20%

Biden was always ahead of Sanders on Predictwise because few people really believe that Sanders has a chance of being the nominee. Hillary was as low as 67% on Predictiwise when Biden was in the mix but now the probability is up to 87% to 90%

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #84)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:13 PM

89. He was higher in a couple of states so I tried to throw him a few.

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Response to L0oniX (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:58 PM

8. There is a 90% probablity that a warm, strong, intelligent woman will be in the Oval office.

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:59 PM

9. -

 

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:10 PM

17. Awesome!

 

Who, if I may ask?

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:16 PM

22. Those qualities could be accurately applied to a Third Way politician

As a matter of fact, you just did.

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:17 PM

23. Is Warren jumping in? nt

 

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:39 PM

33. Lol

no really, lol

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:40 PM

34. As a Bernie Sanders supporter, all I have to say is:

You're right.

I mean, I still plan to vote for Bernie in the primaries; but I think we all know who the nominee is going to be.

And a half-progressive is always better whatever fascist Armageddon freak emerges from the GOP clown car. Let us never forget that.

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:04 PM

46. +1

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:06 PM

50. 90% probability that she will win the Dem nomination.

Somewhat lower probability that she will be in the oval office, since she still has one more election to win to get there...

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Response to riversedge (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:22 PM

82. You forget ...it's a "TwoFer"...Hillary/Bill Third Term...

There is honest disagreement among Dems whether this is a good idea or not. It smacks to some as Dynasty. Its an issue that will be brought up down the line.

Nothing to do with an Independent Woman running for President. It's a Legacy Woman running for President and has recognition because she was a First Lady and all the entitled power exactly because of name recognition has to be taken into consideration. Just saying.......Power=Privilege.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:51 PM

4. Give her the crown NOW

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Response to riversedge (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:13 PM

19. I find those tacky. She isn't going to be the

Damn Queen of England. Something more Americana.

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Response to riversedge (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:55 PM

41. I like those also.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #41)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:12 PM

55. Maybe it would be better in royal blue.

Blue is her color.

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Response to murielm99 (Reply #55)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:23 PM

59. You know, you are right plus DNC color is blue. I like your suggestion.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:54 PM

6. Not if HRC, BS, & MOM voters don't vote

It only matters the number of those who do vote. People who choose not to vote, don't serve their own best interests or beliefs.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 02:58 PM

7. 90% desire by the oligarchs, not the people. this means squat. nt

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:01 PM

12. Must sting that "the people" are also breaking for Clinton n/t

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Response to Godhumor (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:04 PM

13. why don't we wait for people to, ya know,

VOTE, k?

you will be stunned.

and ps...the fact that you seem to delight in the perceived disappointment of others tells me all i need to know.

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:08 PM

15. No. I don't think I'll be shocked. I really don't

But I can't wait to hear the theories about why she wins.

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Response to Godhumor (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:10 PM

16. i don't think she will win

but rigging does have its advantages.....

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:15 PM

21. Rigging? Nice and handy little excuse ready for why Bernie gets crushed in the primary process. n/t

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Response to livetohike (Reply #21)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:37 PM

31. he wont be crushed

but the collusion of the establishment in the DNC is pretty transparent. They have their candidate picked out already.

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:21 PM

24. Yeah, that is one excuse I expect to hear. Glad you got in front of it

And PS I don't delight in the misery of others. I do, however, support my candidate. You'll excuse me if I don't let glib remarks on how she isn't legitimate pass by. The fact that you can't acknowledge that there is more than one worthwhile person running tells me all I need to know about you.

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Response to Godhumor (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:36 PM

30. never said she wasn't a legit candidate

i said she is being propped up by the establishment and the dnc. it is pretty out in the open.

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:12 PM

88. Sounds like you believe every elecion your candidates don't win the election is "rigged."















































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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:32 PM

28. Stunned, shocked, shaken, stirred and stupified.



But until then...

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:32 PM

27. Let's see, 90% for HRC and you are suggesting oligarchs, 90% does not equal government by the few,

To suggest 90% is the oligarch, no it is not going to be government, 90% does not equal oligarchy.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:39 PM

32. the 90% in my view represents the desire, not the number of people. nt

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #32)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:47 PM

36. In other words the 10% represents the desire. Still does not equate to ruling by the few.

There is a need to understanding 90% of the people and their votes will not be government by the few.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #36)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:05 PM

49. the people with the money are in the few

those are the ones who desire 90% for hillary imo

so basically, the 1% are hoping with 90% so called odds

so yeah, 1% is an oligarchy


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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #49)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:21 PM

57. This is not how voting works, let's be truthful.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:05 PM

47. The post doesn't say 90% for HRC

It says that HRC has a 90% chance of winning (which, of course, can be done with far fewer than 90% of the votes)

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:09 PM

52. Wait? You actually think this is a poll where 90% went for Hillary?

Or that 90% of the voters will vote for her in the primaries?


You obviously need to read up on what this site is. predictwise FAQ


It's an aggregate site that makes predictions based on multiple sites, most of them have to do with betting and buying stocks on subjects. If you think that's a good representation of the will of the people, all I can say is wow.

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Response to restorefreedom (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:56 PM

42. 90% does not equate to the few.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #42)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:02 PM

64. Those are odds not votes, right?

This whole thread is weird.

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #64)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:12 PM

66. It could be interrupted as votes in some ways, it does not say government by the few.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #66)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:25 PM

67. No it cannot. Its speculation.

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #67)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:43 PM

73. If Hillary wins the office of presidency it will not be by a vote from the few, it will

Be by majority of the electorate college, still would not be government by the few.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #66)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:26 PM

68. It doesn't have to say "government by the few", because that's just common knowledge. eom

 

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:07 PM

14. And Wal Mart is the biggest selling retailer

 

Maybe she will win. But quantity is not quality.

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Response to Armstead (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:11 PM

18. And the bible is the most-read book in the country. n/t

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:52 PM

39. And WHY is what I will NEVER UNDERSTAND.

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Response to Armstead (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:36 PM

29. Well, she could go back to Walmart and Sanders could return to writing articles about women's

Fantasies and cancer cures.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:14 PM

20. How many poor and working class

 

are using this gambling web site?

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:24 PM

25. That explains the latest shit storm on DU.

 

While I fully realized numbers will wax and wan, I'll enjoy these numbers for now

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Response to Sheepshank (Reply #25)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:26 PM

26. And they will wax and wane--for sure. But as say, after a

rather discouraging few months, I will enjoy them now.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:48 PM

37. I don't usually

believe in karma, destiny, or ever that things will go as planned...but I would venture to go out on a limb
and say that Hiliary has been destined to be president in 2016 since she was conceived - due to or through what source I KNOW not...but you can take it to the bank.....even though she is a war monger.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:51 PM

38. Awesome Hillary!

 

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Response to workinclasszero (Reply #38)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 03:57 PM

43. YES YES YES!!!!!

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:01 PM

44. K & R

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:05 PM

48. Betting markets...

Also had Clinton at 90% in 2008. Predictive markets are heavily influenced by temporary fads.

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Response to Helen Borg (Reply #48)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:11 PM

54. Lightening doesn't strike twice Bernie isn't Obama

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:06 PM

51. it's geting

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:32 PM

60. I love it when an

under dog wins. Especially when it's by such a large number. Think about it

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:41 PM

61. stock market

i like it.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:43 PM

62. Here comes War and More War

Here comes war and more war. It is sad that a female candidate is so very bellicose. I thought womens values meant Peace, stupid me.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 04:46 PM

63. That's a bit higher than the likelihood that Obamacare would be overturned by the Supreme Court

 

The bettors set the likelihood of a striking of the individual mandate (on Intrade, specifically) at about 80%. See "Betting on the future" for an interesting discussion of online prediction markets.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:28 PM

69. Big money, Big, power, The War Machine, Banksters and Billionaires...

Would all be giddy if she won.

She won't.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:37 PM

70. Of course

Because Americans say they want change but keep electing corporate shills who don't give a damn about the well-being of the populace.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:42 PM

71. Bernie Sanders is

too much of a gentlemen and too much of a true Progressive to beat HRC.... Establishment wins..... I just hope there are no regrets if she loses the GE.... If you think the Rethugs are going to go easy on her .....LOL... Remember she must gain some moderate Independent support to win the GE... Bernie has a message that reaches both sides of the aisle Clinton's appeal to the right side is faced with nothing but hatred so they will tune her out completely at least with Bernie we had a fair shot that some few would at least listen.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:43 PM

72. ...

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:48 PM

74. Has there ever been a doubt? n/t

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:51 PM

75. DU rec...nt

Sid

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 05:51 PM

76. I actually think Omalley has a better chance than Bernie.

The only way Hillary loses this if she is indicted for the email stuff... which is a very remote possibility. However, if that happens she drops out and most of her supporters would probably go to Omalley, not Sanders. IMO.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:01 PM

78. No surprise there.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:07 PM

79. Q: "What is PredictWise?"


AredictWise aggregates, analyzes, and creates predictions on politics, sports, finance, and entertainment.


Hey, does this entertainment value include nose rings?

And also from this site...
Q:Should I make any bets based on this information?
A:No, betting money on sports, politics, or anything else is a bad idea. Not only is it losing proposition due to the house's commission, but it is addictive, destructive, and - depending on your location - most likely illegal.


Whew! That's a relief!

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:13 PM

80. Winning the Democratic nomination and winning the Presidency

are two different things. Al Gore is living proof of the lengths the Repukes will go to to install one of their own -- even a brainless moron like the chimp.

Hillary would face a tough fight. She'd have to win over many Bernie voters who find her claims to be on the side of the 99% about as convincing as the average 4-year-old pretending to be Spiderman tonight. She'd have to do extremely well with Independents because Republicans (who reflexively hate all things Clinton) will vote for her opponent, whichever cretin it turns out to be, in great numbers and with considerable enthusiasm.

As has become customary, the election will be fought in a few battleground states where voters will choose between a Democratic corporatist and a Republican uber corporatist.

I am a Democrat and have loyally voted for every Democratic candidate since casting my first vote for McGovern in '72. I will vote for the Democratic nominee on my 64th birthday next November 8th. But if I am marking my ballot for Hillary Clinton, it will be with the other hand firmly holding my nose and the knowledge that the true losers that night will be the millions whose hope for change that favors the masses will be dashed yet again.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:25 PM

83. The probability of Hillary Clinton being the nominee is back down to 89%

Predictwise fluctuates a bid during the day. These are still great numbers

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 06:38 PM

85. I miss the old Intrade market

The CFTC shut down that market because people were playing games at the end by timing purchases and sales to affect the opening and closing prices of the securities/options. For a while the Intrade market was very accurate as to predicting races

Predictwise is new and has mechanism to make it hard or impossible for US citizens to easily buy options or participate in the market

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:00 PM

86. Clickity! Clickity! Clickity! Clickity!

 

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:11 PM

87. Obama was at 10% just two weeks earlier in 2007.

 

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:32 PM

90. So your'e giving me

nine to one odds for real?

that means I put up $100 and you put up $900,

if Bernie wins, I get the $900

if Hillary wins, You get $100

I got the cash, have you?

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2015, 04:15 PM

91. Intrade has Clinton at 94%

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #91)

Sat Jan 16, 2016, 02:51 AM

92. to bad

nobody would put their money down back in Nov.

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