Clinton's growing support among Democrats

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Hillary Clinton is the main beneficiary of Joe Biden's decision not to run for president

When Vice President Joe Biden announced last week he would not run for president in 2016, he gave former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton what appears to be a present: her lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders widened. Two weeks ago, in the Economist/YouGov Poll, just under half of registered voters who think of themselves as Democrats favored Clinton for the nomination, this week, more than six in ten choose her. Clinton’s margin over Sanders jumped ten points.







Sanders’ support increased very little: the percentage of Democrats choosing him rose just three points. Sanders does best with those under 30, who are closely divided (47% favor Clinton, 41% Sanders). But he still has not managed to gain much support from minority Democrats: African-Americans support Clinton 77% to 14% for Sanders (however, it should be noted that early in the 2008 campaign, Clinton led President Obama as the presidential choice of African-Americans. That changed dramatically during the campaign). Clinton leads with both men and women – she is 24 points ahead among men, and ahead by 38 points with women. She also leads with would could be Sanders’ natural constituency - Democratic liberals.







https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/29/clintons-growing-support-among-democrats/

[JaneyVee]

1. So millennials are backing HRC despite what...

Bernie fans are claiming.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. That has been one of the biggest misnomers of the campaign./nt

[riversedge]

7. yes, i see it posted over and over.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I suspect they are trying to convince themselves./nt

[upaloopa]

4. Looks like the "people" are backing HRC too despite what

Bernie fans are claiming.

[JoePhilly]

3. Kick for reality.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Solid leads in all demographic illustrates the depth and breadth of her support.

eom.

[Scootaloo]

6. When you take Biden out, Clinton's numbers increase by that amount.

Hasn't everyone been pointing this out since the dude first started ghosting into polls?

[Gothmog]

9. These are great numbers for HRC

[mcar]

10. K&R

[Fred Sanders]

11. In one poll, as consolation, Sanders had a solid lead among "angry Democratic voters":

"But Bernie Sanders inspires younger voters and those that are angry with Washington — a key demographic in an election year where voters are embracing candidates who are considered outsiders. Among all Democratic leaned voters, less than 1 in 4 are satisfied (23%) or enthusiastic (1%) about how the federal government is working. A full 50% are dissatisfied and another 25% express anger. Among these angry voters, Sanders bests Clinton, 43% to 38%".

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/30/poll-hillary-clinton-hits-50-percent-support.html

[Martin Eden]

19. If you're not angry with Wasnigton DC, you haven't been paying attention.

Just sayin

[pinebox]

12. Republican Poll Shows Bernie Tied for First Place with Trump and Carson

Your poll is "among Democrats"

Now let's examine crossover appeal because THAT is a biggie & this is how Bernie paves the road to the White House. A coalition of Dems, Indies and Republicans. Yes, some will say that it's in his home state BUT it's beginning to show up nationally, slowly. This is the example many of us have been pointing to.

Republican Poll Shows Bernie Tied for First Place with Trump and Carson in This State--No one predicted this.
http://usuncut.com/politics/republican-poll-shows-bernie-tied-for-first-place-with-trump-and-carson-in-this-state/

In Sanders’ home state, Vermont, even the Republicans are feeling the Bern.

According to a poll conducted by Castleton Polling Institute of Vermont among residents who identify as Republican or leaning Republican, Sanders is tied for the top spot next to Donald Trump and Ben Carson — with each candidate claiming 12 percent support.

“He’s the native son, so you expect a lot of support,” said institute director Rich Clark, who conducted the poll, to Seven Days Vermont. “But I didn’t expect it to be as high among Republicans.”

As could be expected, the Vermont senator is also surging among the state’s Democrats, with support of 65 percent of those who identify as Democratic or lean Democratic.

Sanders is also the favorite among Vermont independents. 39 percent support Sanders, while nearly 20 percent support Trump.

However, the GOP’s love for Sanders does not appear to be limited to Vermont. A Facebook page called Republicans for Bernie https://www.facebook.com/republicansforbernie has been steadily growing throughout the primary season, and has nearly 8,500 likes as of this writing.

In a post pinned to the top of the page, an admin wrote on why and how he can be a self-proclaimed republican who supports Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist:

“There are some issues on which I am to his ‘right,’ and at least one issue on which I am to his ‘left.’ But then hey, Bernie Sanders may be deemed to be to the right of Hillary Clinton on a couple matters as well. It sort of seems like only a narcissist would demand a politician who agrees with him/her on every point. Good politics are about honesty and compromise, and there may be no politician alive who understands this better than Bernie.”

FYI since this article was written, that facebook page has now doubled its followers.

[RandySF]

14. This is in Vermont

And Bernie is running in the DEMOCRATIC primary.

[pinebox]

21. Read what I said again

please because I said that
Also, I am talking about the general.

[thesquanderer]

20. There are some indications that BS would be stronger than HRC in the general...

...but it's moot if he doesn't get the nomination, which is going to be a tough hill to climb.

The one (somewhat) positive thing I can see in this poll for Sanders is that the poll shows that 7% of the people weren't sure how they felt about Hillary, but 22% still weren't sure what they felt about Bernie, so he has more upside potemtial among people who aren't that familiar with him yet.

But there are still months to go before the first primary, who knows what can happen...

[Rilgin]

13. I have asked this before.

YouGov works by people joining up. Their base population polled are self-selected voluteers who "who share their opinions in return for points and rewards. ". People sign up for YouGov to be part of their Internet Opt-In Panel.

When they want to poll or survey, they email people who have joined YouGov to get answers. The results are interpreted after applying demographic adjustments.

These adjustments may be accurate and/or done in good faith. Presumably, they are really trying to get the results they generate from answers from their Opt-In Internet Panel to mirror the electorate or any other population they are polling. A lot of establishment organizations and media companies seem to be using YouGov.

My questions on their methodology just starts at the top. What kind of people sign up for YouGov. Do any left wing democrats sign up or more establishment democrats which would have to skew the results regardless of what demographic or identification filters you use. This is easy to see if you take an absurd example. If you went to a Bernie rally and asked who do you support then adjusted only for registered democrats and demographics, you would still find a result that grossly favored Bernie. Similar to Hillary. The key to how reliable YouGov is depends on a mixture of the validity of their filtering and adjustment and the make up of their Opt-In Panel.

Does anyone know anything about the Opt-In Panel make up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. They try their best to approximate a random sample...

Landline/cell phone polls are still the gold standard but they are becoming more and more expensive to perform because of dwindling participation rates and consequently more rare...

I have a theory that these online polls despite the controls and the weighting miss a lot of working class voters as I don't think some people after a hard day of waiting tables, mowing lawns, or cleaning homes is going to mess around on the internet answering fifty question surveys.

[Rilgin]

17. Has any one (even YouGov) tried to analyze their own panel?

I can believe they are earnest. Their pollsters may actually try to adjust how their panel differs from a random sample of the electorate. However, as you allude, the fact that YouGov is a voluteer sign up Internet site gives me some pause.

You mention the working class might not sign up. I also think it is possible that more establishment types sign up for a site like this. It is not demographics but self-selecting biases within a demographic. I do not know how you could possibly adjust for that through demographic questions. You can see that amongst discussion sites. Sites where people will self identify as democrats, liberals, progressives (whatever one cares to address) have their own general bias. DU, itself, tends to draw more Bernie supporters and probably has a high percentage of registered individuals. However, no Bernie supporter would take a poll here as representative of the general population since there is an internal bias to people who come to this site. Trying to adjust this out would be impossible.

I am curious about YouGov's demographics. Where does YouGov advertise and how do they connect with people to sign up? Does anyone here know?

[riversedge]

15. Love that gif in your OP.

[L0oniX]

18. ...also growing among the oligarchy.

[Cha]

22. Hillary for Prez!