Great news! Romney leads Obama in Florida by 14%

[Marzupialis]

This is GREAT NEWS because this is the same pollster showing a Romney lead of 4% in Michigan.

Now that we know that this pollster is nothing but a BIG JOKE, since nobody in the world believes Romney holds a 14% lead in Florida, we can safely assume that the Michigan poll is another joke. Be aware that there is no error in these figures. The poll actually has Romney ahead by 14% in Florida!

The pollser is Foster McCollum White Baydum and Douglas Fulmer and Associates.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103331632/FMWB-Fulmer-Associates-Aggregate-Polling-Study-Report-for-Florida-General-Election?secret_password=1zk6r9l2b6szas5ioh5

[mim89]

1. .

these polls are so off

[Marzupialis]

2. I have to add two things

1) Pollster.com irresponsibly lists this pollster as a Democratic pollster. In the methodology page, we are told that "notcommissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization."

We are also told it is a "likely voter" sample, but it is not. The sample is something new and untested called "most likely" voters, which is a joke. See link I provided.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/fl-2012-president-554-rom_n_1818052.html

[FBaggins]

4. It isn't irresponsible to list them as a Democratic pollster.

You won't usually see a public release of a poll that is commissioned on behalf of a candidate/party (or if you do, it will be released by that candidate).

For instance, PPP is one of the better-known Democratic polling firms, but they release lots of polls that are not commissioned.

I can't speak to how they got their "most likely" screen, but perhaps the larger error is that african americans made up only 6.3% of the sample (a bit less than a third of the actual FL demographic makeup).

[cindyperry2010]

3. here is a a list

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-florida-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/florida.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

all of these except the nonsense of rmoney being ahead by 14 in florida show it to be close currently

[BelieveMe3]

5. internal polling

Remember that the campaigns due internal polling. They know better than anyone what the race looks like. McCain's people knew he was going to lose and thus Palin. I believe Romney's people were not confident and felt like they had to change their conversation even if it was rolling out Ryan on a Saturday morning during the Olympics! Obama has led consistently nationally and in swing states that matter. It goes up and down, but Romney hasn't overtaken him overall. Despite everything they throw at him. Watch the campaigns to see how they are acting to detect what they might know. I don't sense a confident Romney camp.

[WI_DEM]

6. I don't think we should even post any more of this pollsters polls since it really appears

they don't know what they are doing.

[davidpdx]

7. Never heard of them, what is their reputation before this year?

Maybe they are a KKKarl Rove operation?

Did a quick check online I couldn't find a thing other than the news stories.

[firenewt]

8. My take on this: the poll is based on best case results of voter suppression.

The GOP (Greed Over People) are faced with the daunting task of boosting poll numbers. I assume they are working on the fact people like get behind a winner. Showing Romney with a big lead will cause people who hate him to not vote and stay home.

[thevoiceofreason]

9. Please dig into crosstabs before worrying

2% under 30? Seriously?