The Democratic Race That Isn’t
Here’s the little secret nobody’s telling you:
Barring an unexpected, serious health crisis, or the emergence of a scandal far bigger and more substantive than the laughable “Emailgate” controversy, Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States in 2016.
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After Iowa and New Hampshire, two states whose Democratic caucus/primary electorates can be expected to be relatively friendly to Mr. Sanders—indeed, Mr. Sanders leads in New Hampshire, which borders his home state of Vermont—the contest moves to Nevada and South Carolina, where his prospects are dim at the moment. While polling has been scant in Nevada, the most recent CNN/ORC poll there, taken October 3-10, shows Ms. Clinton with a substantial 50-34 lead over Mr. Sanders, and that is with 12 percent going to Mr. Biden. As most polls have shown the bulk of Mr. Biden’s support moving toward Ms. Clinton with the vice president not in the race, it would be safe to say her lead in Nevada is somewhere in the ballpark of 20 points.
In South Carolina, there has been significantly more polling, and all of it has been catastrophically bad for Mr. Sanders. Per Real Clear Politics, no poll taken in the Palmetto State shows him closer than 23 points, and on average, he trails Ms. Clinton by 37 points. Keep in mind that most polling in South Carolina included Mr. Biden, who averaged 21.5 percent, and that most of his support appears likely to go to Ms. Clinton.
The current state of play in Nevada and South Carolina demonstrates that the murmurs about Mr. Sanders’ failure to gain ground among Latinos and African-Americans still ring true, and while a recent online poll by NBC News showed him within seven points among Latinos—far closer than other, more traditional polls indicate—he is still getting crushed by Ms. Clinton among African-Americans. If Mr. Sanders’ apparent struggles among voters of color persist, then he is in for significant defeats in those two states and a calamitous day on March 1, when 11 states (mostly in the South) hold their nominating contests. This so called “Southeastern Conference Primary” includes numerous states with significant African-American and/or Latino voting populations, and it is followed over the next few weeks by several key states that also have large non-white segments among their Democratic voters, including Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina. It is difficult to see how Mr. Sanders gets out of March alive, politically speaking. The calendar could hardly be unkinder to him.
http://observer.com/2015/10/the-democratic-race-that-isnt/
= new reply since forum marked as read
Someone is quoting what someone else wrote about the primary elections. That's what people do in GD
. Turnout will be what it is, based on what people learn and think about.
Nothing anyone posts on DU will alter the turnout for caucuses and primary elections.
It is simple DU being what DU is. People post items from many sources here and write their own opinions, as well. There's no shortage of it from either camp.
