2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTwo new polls give HRC huge leads in Iowa
A new Monmouth University Poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton with a huge lead over Bernie Sanders, 65% to 24%, with Martin OMalley at 5% and Lawrence Lessig at 4%.
Key findings: Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. She also has an edge across the ideological spectrum, leading among voters who are very liberal (57% to 34%), somewhat liberal (68% to 22%), and moderate (69% to 19%).
A new Loras College poll finds Clinton leading Sanders, 65% to 24%, with OMalley at 3%.
http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/27/clinton-holds-massive-lead-in-iowa/
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)fbc
(1,668 posts)Other polls taken within days of these polls show Hillary Clinton with a single digit lead.
riversedge
(70,186 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)fbc
(1,668 posts)Granted, it's not the first poll ever from the auspicious "Loras College", but it certainly seems more in line with most of the polling going on.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/
George II
(67,782 posts)Who better to gauge the climate in Iowa?
Inasmuch as their result is very close to the Monmouth poll earlier today, I'd say both are very accurate.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)A new Loras College poll finds Clinton leading Sanders, 65% to 24%
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Anybody have a link to the unscrewing of Loras?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Not only do they make stuff up about Hillary now they make stuff up about polls.
It is hard when you live in a make believe world. Reality comes and bites you in the ass sometimes.
Beausoir
(7,540 posts)terrable news.
I guess i will be staying home on election day In 2016.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)So you're going to boycott the whole general election and not vote for anybody just because your candidate might not be the nominee?
Beausoir
(7,540 posts)MrWendel
(1,881 posts)pout and stay home. Your an inspiration to many!
Robbins
(5,066 posts)suporting TPP
Cutting social safety net
Increased defebse spending
More war In middle east
Me voting for democrats from 1992 to 2014 has been useless so what is the point of voting
After Ferguson here In Missouri i saw how useless dems really are.
brooklynite
(94,502 posts)Walk away
(9,494 posts)Fascinating!
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I'll go Green.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Totally expected as a matter of fact.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Response to Fawke Em (Reply #20)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I'm tired of the candidates in both parties being that way.
That is my choice.
Response to Fawke Em (Reply #30)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)Walk away
(9,494 posts)Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)MineralMan
(146,286 posts)In fact, all the players brought their balls with them, so the game will go on, even if you take yours and go home. Sorry.
hack89
(39,171 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The GOP frontrunner in the latest Iowa poll would replace Medicare and Medicaid with savings accounts.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ben-carson-medicare-medicaid-215055
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)saturnsring
(1,832 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Cheers to Hillary!
ismnotwasm
(41,976 posts)Go team Hillary!
msrizzo
(796 posts)I was expecting a Benghazi hearing bump, but this is crazy.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)YEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)The democrats are rallying around a great progressive to march into the general.
Martin Eden
(12,863 posts)Who would that be?
(ain't HRC)
riversedge
(70,186 posts)Martin Eden
(12,863 posts)Even if the polls are a good predictor of the outcome of the caucus vote (no certain thing), you are assuming Iowa voters answered the poll based on an evaluation that HRC is a "great progressive" and that's what they want in a candidate and it's the primary factor in their answer.
Whether or not Hillary Clinton is a "great progressive" is a matter of her record.
HRC does not fit that term, especially compared to Sanders.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Is a matter of YOUR interpretation of her record, measured against YOUR interpretation of "Progressive."
Gore1FL
(21,127 posts)I take her at her word.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)In the GE after they all pledge to destroy social security and medicaid to fund Forever War!
F***, ***king Republicans!
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!!
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)after all the abuse Hillary fans have endured here for months.
These polls today exceeded my wildest dreams though.
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
BootinUp
(47,141 posts)Response to BootinUp (Reply #105)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)His plan is backfiring.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)oh jesus
scscholar
(2,902 posts)It was posted here several times recently about what he is doing.
frylock
(34,825 posts)scscholar
(2,902 posts)Care to backup that insult? Maybe if you hate us so much you shouldn't spend so much time here.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Maedhros
(10,007 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)saturnsring
(1,832 posts)Let the cons take it if their candidate loses the primary that's irrational in any book
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)/ignore.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)I'm defending this site. There is so much hate from him. So much hate.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)I am unconcerned ...
riversedge
(70,186 posts)this morning. She just could not believe it. NOW another one with almost the same results!! Go Hillary
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)you and your fellow centrists and corporists and pro-war people are cheering
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)these few days of celebration for Hillary Clinton supporters without attacking us?
She did well last week. She's having a moment of victory, and her supporters are happy about that. Who knows? Maybe next week Sanders will come back hard and then you can celebrate, and I assure you, I won't try to rain on your parade. Promise.
this isn't a game.Clinton and her centrist corporist pro-war followers are the enemy for true liberals and progressives as last night's
budget deal is latest example.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)Huh. You'd think that would have gotten more coverage.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)The corporate loving clintons are totally onboard with obama with screwing the disabled and seniors for more defense spending.
If she were to become president more deals like this will happen.
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)You wrote "if", that should have been "when".
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)who has the best chance of beating any Republican they can come up with. She's shown that at the Benghazi witch-hunt "hearing".
By the way? She has NOTHING to do with the budget deal - which is a really good one for us, by the way. There's a reason that conservatives are up in a rage about it. That's a sure sign it's a good deal.
I'm sorry that you won't give us a few days of celebration for our candidate. I was trying to appeal to your better angels. I'm sorry that failed.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Conservatives would cry about any deal even though it's great for them.they got cuts to SSI and medicare and more defense spending.
Doesn't matter who wins if it's between a corporate dem or republican.
But then again I know you support TPP,cutting SSI and Medicare,more increased defense spending,and more war since you support clinton.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)LuvLoogie
(6,992 posts)It's half their grass-roots campaign strategy. Plan B is Hillary being indicted for something.
But while she campaigns, The Revolution complains.
I love Bernie, but he went from Brooklyn to Vermont eschewing party membership, while needing/leveraging the political infrastructure of the Vermont Democrats in order to get elected. He declined the Democratic nomination after winning the primary. And chose instead to run as an Independent in the general.
He's a great guy, but he needed to come out of his shell during his first Senate term. And I don't mean on a radio show preaching to the choir.
Edit to add:
Hillary's carreer, OTOH, has always been one that increased her network, that expanded her boundaries to include the entire planet, that pushed policy, that challenged and was challenged by strong and often vicious opposition. She grew her network, face to face in physical space, and grew in her role/s as public servant.
The irony is that The Revolution wants a coronation for Bernie.
Hillary has done the work and is close to having readied the tipping point which will launch her to the apex of her carreer.
BootinUp
(47,141 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)108vcd
(91 posts)i still to date have read NOTHING on DU from any of HC supporters as to why she is better for this country than Bernie Sanders, other than potential electibility
will vote Green Party like I did in 12, when Obama (who I do admire) proved to be a corporatist also
if Repubicans win, so be it....at least the D Party might come to the realization that they should stop being R light
NYCButterfinger
(755 posts)You want President Trump? President Rubio? President Bush III? Bernie will have to prove that he can win independent voters, and right now, that is not all clear.
LuvLoogie
(6,992 posts)to others beside Hillary's Partisans. It may be affecting Bernie's long-term traction with traditional Democrats.
CheshireDog
(63 posts)Because she's incredibly intelligent and likes to get stuff done. In every position she has ever held, from first lady to senator to SOS, she goes above and beyond her duties.
She's a workaholic and she will get stuff done. For the first time in a long time, we will have a president who spends a lot more time governing than vacationing or having empty press conferences.
Finally, I trust her. She won't do anything to turn back the clock for women, minorities, or LGBT people in this country. At the same time, she's not so far left that she will tax and spend endlessly and sink us into further debt with higher taxes. Example: I support free college, but how is it fair to us recent graduates? We are already saddled with debt but now we are to pay higher taxes so the people a few classes behind us can go for free? We have to pay for our degree and theirs too? No thanks.
BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)And so true!
Welcome to DU!
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)108vcd
(91 posts)she's intelligent, and while that's better than the R candidates, it doesn't mean all that much
workaholic? sorry I don't know where you are getting that from...do you know her personally?...president's should go on vacation from time to time as it's a stressful job...just not basically live in another state like GWB did
you trust her also not to reverse any social issues, but that's not stating much....social issues at this point is really the only major thing that separates the 2 parties....I do not trust her to enact any real economic change, which is at the heart of many of the issues facing this country...I do not trust her not to cave in on cuts to social programs...i do not trust her not to go to war unless it's absolutely a necessity...I do not trust her to crack down on Wall Street as many of her large donors are big banks....i do not trust her to push for campaign finance reform
she's basically the establishment candidate, and it's fine that you're ok with that, I just am not playing that game anymore
"free college tuition" isn't free, it's paid via a tax on WS speculation
"universal health care" is cheaper than what we have going on now
Robbins
(5,066 posts)she can't be trusted to do squat.her flipfloping for primary are proof enough.
if your a neocon or corporist yeha she does great job with getting things done.
She like obama want to make disabled and seniors suffer to pay for more war.
tax and spend line? Seriously using republican attack here
CheshireDog
(63 posts)You say I'm using a Republican attack line...I'm pretty sure 90% of the anti Hillary stuff on this forum is straight from Republicans. So pot, meet kettle.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)BootinUp
(47,141 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)and congress kill off your social security and medicaid.
And then appoint 3 teahaddists to SCOTUS to fuck over the 99% for the next 30 years or so.
Some people just want to see the world burn I guess.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)NYCButterfinger
(755 posts)His views, Sanders, are popular with some Americans. Free college, yes that is a good idea. But how are you going to pay for it. I am still undecided in this 2016 presidential election, but Hillary will win Iowa on February 1. That is a likely fact. Sanders needs to appeal to centrist voters as well. This election will come down to centrists. Period.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)I will be staying home on election day then.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)This was the first Monmouth Iowa poll, so there are no trends to highlight.
The Loras poll shows Clinton with a +7% net bump over Sanders from the last Loras Iowa poll in late August. Only 17% of the Democrats surveyed were contacted via cell phone in this poll.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)the better she does! With backing like this so early we will easily take the Senate back and make serious inroads into Congress!
I'm proud to be a life long Democrat! Thanks Hillary!
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)are scared shitless today! They were counting on Bernie to muddy up the water and dilute her strength.
Not gonna happen teahaddists!
Hillary is the one they fear....and she is on the way to kick theirs asses in 2016!
Walk away
(9,494 posts)I'm sure she isn't worried about mud. It's better to fight these battles with someone as weak as Bernie. I think that's why she is "poking the bear" a little. She needs him to fight back. It's good to hone your skills on someone before you go into battle.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)will harden up us democrats for the koch bros billion dollar bullshit campaign in the GE.
A test by fire that Bernie would never in a million years come close to winning.
Hillary will slay in the GE!
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)Countdown to when Bernie supporters call Iowa liberals Third Way, corporatist, neo-libs or oligarchists!!!
5 . 4 . 3 . 2 . 1!
LuvLoogie
(6,992 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)Latest NC PPP poll has Clinton up 61-24. Clinton gained 10; Bernie SURGES up 1!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1441030/-NC-poll-PPP-Clinton-61-24
mahina
(17,644 posts)Onward.
Geronimoe
(1,539 posts)all their family farms are foreclosed on by the NY banksters and bought by big-Ag.
I don't understand why all my democratic friends are saying they will not vote for Hillary, yet we get these polls.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Geronimoe
(1,539 posts)one would think at least a few might be for Hillary. Perhaps my friends are the ones with caller ID, that refuse to answer the phone when number is unknown?
onenote
(42,694 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)"I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don't know."
Recursion
(56,582 posts)BlueCheese
(2,522 posts)If it's confirmed by subsequent polls, I might be more convinced.
When you see big changes, you feel like there ought to be reasons. Could the Benghazi testimony have had that big of an impact? I somehow doubt it would turn a 10-point lead into a 30-point lead.
c-ville rook
(45 posts)Look I worked for the Mondale campaign back in high school -- that is how long and at times thanklessly I have been toting the big "D". So let me say first, is Clinton a Democrat -- sure. Is she progressive -- maybe compared to the Republican field and that isn't saying much. So, if you want a government that supports what allegedly this site advocates I would not be thrilled with this news. However, if you wish to be realistic she is very likely to happen and we we need to get on board.
This is not a vote for the lesser of two evils. This is a vote to save a nation -- this nation. After the primary -- and it is about decided (and I way prefer Bernie to Hillary) -- it the words of the movie "Full Metal Jacket", "Then how about getting with the program? Why don't you jump on the team and come on in for the big win?"
We just cannot afford a House, Senate, and White House sweep.
But more to point whoever went -- and they did -- with the shot "tax and spend liberal" should be chased from this site by the villagers.
Cha
(297,140 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)The 3 other post debate polls had 3, 7, and 11 point leads for Hillary. The 7 is Selzer, which is rated an A+ by 538. Hillary leads by somewhere around 7 points.
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)As it only is polling people that were registered in previous elections as Democrats.
It will ignore:
1) Those that maybe have recently been independents registering as democrats now to vote for Bernie
2) Those who are voting in open primary states...
3) Those that are young people that are a target demographic of Sanders' campaign who hadn't registered to vote yet in those previous elections.
4) Don't have land line phones as many millenials and younger voters don't have.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128066651
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251733979
But... It is slanted JUST the way the corporate media wants to have it slanted so that their choice of candidate gets nominated.