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Sat Aug 11, 2012, 04:53 PM

538.com predicts 301 vs 236 Electoral for Obama. So why MSM polls keep telling us so close?

I really don't trust anyone else like I trust Nate Silver, and he shows Ohio going Big Time for President Obama, despite the other polls that have it undecided. Ask KKKarl Rove. If you lose Ohio, you've basically lost the election.

So we know the MSM wants to keep this a close contest for their ratings, their profit margins, and because they're corporate owned, but my spidey sense tells me this: If the media keeps pushing the meme of this election being a close race, then when these statewide voter suppression laws get passed, the voting machines flip the votes from D to R, and large D communities encounter difficulties like not enough polling places or workers refusing their ballots, the media can pretend was always a tossup and not just a manipulated meme.

We gotta get out there and MAKE SURE 538.com's predictions become reality! Here's the link to Nate Silver in the Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

31 replies, 10013 views

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Reply 538.com predicts 301 vs 236 Electoral for Obama. So why MSM polls keep telling us so close? (Original post)
pink-o Aug 2012 OP
GreenPartyVoter Aug 2012 #1
hollysmom Aug 2012 #2
pink-o Aug 2012 #3
cheezmaka Aug 2012 #13
grantcart Aug 2012 #4
elleng Aug 2012 #5
themaguffin Aug 2012 #6
2pooped2pop Aug 2012 #7
pink-o Aug 2012 #9
Jester Messiah Sep 2012 #31
thecentristword Aug 2012 #8
Rosa Luxemburg Aug 2012 #10
riverbendviewgal Aug 2012 #11
crimson77 Aug 2012 #12
davidpdx Aug 2012 #14
spooky3 Aug 2012 #20
crimson77 Aug 2012 #23
Ebadlun Aug 2012 #22
Motown_Johnny Aug 2012 #15
ailsagirl Aug 2012 #16
JoePhilly Aug 2012 #17
dsteve01 Aug 2012 #18
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #19
mythology Aug 2012 #21
Proud Liberal Dem Aug 2012 #24
Doctor Jack Aug 2012 #25
SheilaT Aug 2012 #26
regnaD kciN Aug 2012 #27
Comrade Funk Aug 2012 #28
UCmeNdc Aug 2012 #29
pink-o Aug 2012 #30

Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:12 PM

1. Thanks for the link. I usually don't check out Nate's predictions until much closer to

the election, but I am curious to read up on his thoughts about Ryan.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:19 PM

2. I think it is the money

When Romney goes into his big spending, how many fools are going to believe that garbage?

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Response to hollysmom (Reply #2)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:30 PM

3. Yup. Too many.

FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR....yawn.

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Response to hollysmom (Reply #2)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 06:34 PM

13. Good question!

As the saying goes, "there's a FOOL born every minute..."

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:42 PM

4. if you read his articles he exlains why

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:48 PM

5. The REAL story is

repugs have never won a presidential race without having won Ohio; Dems could do it without OH. (I'm not predicting or advocating, just setting the record straight.)

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:49 PM

6. Because some states will be close and that could dramatically impact those #'s

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:52 PM

7. to give credibility to theft

 

If it's a landslide, no one would believe it when they switch the vote count. But if the msm tells us over and over again that it's neck n neck we will think it is possible that Rmoney won.

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Response to 2pooped2pop (Reply #7)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 06:18 PM

9. That is x-actly what I'm sayin'. N/T

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Response to 2pooped2pop (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:43 PM

31. That's one possibility. I think they're just trying to keep themselves relevant.

 

If everyone thinks the election's in the bag, traffic to news sites slumps, ad revenue dips, and there are frowny faces in the boardroom.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 05:56 PM

8. the PRESS wants a close election

means more viewers and more money

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 06:18 PM

10. because they want to steal the election

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 06:22 PM

11. It is all about money...it's the ratings!!!

and the commercials....Keeps the people tuned in. for those nice money making commercials...

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 06:30 PM

12. I think Romney has made his path to the White House clear..

 

He ceased caring about Ohio. Romney's path is now Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Also I would use caution when saying it is going to be an Obama blowout. All the state polls are relatively close. I see Obama's window at about 300-310 and Romney's at 290-300. Wild card states that could raise Romney's totals New Hampshire,Nevada, Minnesota and Michigan(where the polls have been all over the place).

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Response to crimson77 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 07:33 PM

14. Which is an insanely hard path

Assuming he was to win Indian, Florida, NC, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado that would put Romney at 230. That means he's going to have to flip more than 7 states all of which were blue last time. I think Florida will be close.

I agree about using caution though.

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Response to crimson77 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 10:22 PM

20. There are only 535 total electors.

You might want to recalibrate predictions, or maybe I am not understanding what you mean by each "window."

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #20)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 11:57 PM

23. My bad,

 

I meant best case for either candidate.

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Response to crimson77 (Reply #12)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 10:34 PM

22. Well he's just said fuck you to Florida

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 07:56 PM

15. They use national numbers to obscure our Electoral advantage

 

They need to report on something.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 09:20 PM

16. I think the polls are spurious-- even those that have Obama ahead

I keep an eye on them but don't put too much stock in them.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 09:22 PM

17. If the race isn't close, you don't need 100s of TV pundits 24/7 ...

and those are the only jobs the TV pundits care about ... their own.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 09:35 PM

18. Drinking Game!

Come November, I'll setup a drinking game with a couple other like-minded individuals.
For every red state that Obama wins over, we'll take a shot.

I'm sure, by the end of the night, We. Will. Be. Hammered.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 09:36 PM

19. Actually four recent polls have it 7-10 points in favor of Obama and it was Nate who was...

pooh-poohing those polls.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sat Aug 11, 2012, 10:29 PM

21. Because most people don't really get the Electoral College

 

It's far easier to say that the race is X% to Y% nationally. It's pretty rare that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote are too dissimilar. And going over 50 states, or even the 10 to 15 that are reasonably up for grabs would take too much time to discuss in a news segment.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 12:22 AM

24. When Romney/Ryan

start drawing somewhere close to the kind of crowds- not just filled with teabaggers- that President Obama drew in 2008 (and typically draws whenever he's out on the trail), I'll maybe kind of start to believe that they may have a chance to win. Romney may have gobs and gobs of money at his disposal but President Obama has a better ground game. Romney can blanket the airwaves with thousands of negative ads attacking President Obama but what can he say about President Obama that hasn't already been screamed at the top of teabagger/Fox News lungs since 2009? They've thrown everything AND the kitchen sink at President Obama and most people still like him even if they are slightly worried about the economy and jobs (which President Obama has little control over, particularly with the Republicans obstructing anything that might help). The only thing that I think that we need to really worry about is getting people to the polls (which Romney's made a little easier with Ryan on the ticket) and making sure our voters can vote. If we can minimize voter suppression/disenfranchisement, I think that we'll do o.k.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 12:29 AM

25. Because if we think the election is going to be close, we will follow the daily coverage

And then Wolf Blitzer gets a fat paycheck and a new boat.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 02:01 AM

26. I believe that most of the polling simply looks at the raw numbers

 

of who prefers which candidate, as if the president were elected by popular vote (keeping in mind, of coursed, that no one bothers to count the unpopular votes).

While it will never be a good idea to think the election is in the bag, I honestly think in the end it won't even be close in the popular vote.

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 02:09 AM

27. Even Nate is saying...

...that the popular vote is going to be very, very close (and he distrusts the latest polls showing Obama's lead increasing).

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 02:33 AM

28. RATINGZZZ

The want rating

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Response to pink-o (Original post)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 03:17 AM

29. Voter Suppression is why!

This is why the MSM keeps saying it is a close election. The GOP plans to suppress the Democratic voters.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9466

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Response to UCmeNdc (Reply #29)

Sun Aug 12, 2012, 12:48 PM

30. It's both ratings and voter suppression...

One hardly matters. But the other we simply have to stop!

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