PPP: Obama leading 49-46 among voters in North Carolina

[WI_DEM]

PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find an extremely close race for President in the state, with Barack Obama at 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney. PPP started monthly polling of this contest in November of 2010 and Obama and Romney have now been within 3 points of each 21 of the last 22 months.

North Carolina voters aren't thrilled with the job Obama's doing- 48% approve and 49% disapprove. But they continue to have pretty tepid feelings toward Romney with only 42% of voters rating him favorably to 50% who have a negative opinion of him.

This new poll really shows how in migration has changed the landscape for Presidential campaigns in North Carolina. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% among voters who were born in North Carolina. But among those who've moved into the state from somewhere else Obama has a 51/45 advantage.

The divide is even more stark when you look at how long folks have lived in North Carolina. Romney dominates among long time residents of the state, leading 54-41 with those who have been here for more than 30 years. But Obama's even stronger among North Carolina's newest residents, leading 58-37 with those who have been here less than 30 years and 66-27 with folks who have been here less than ten years. These sorts of numbers are why North Carolina's swing state status isn't likely to fade any time soon. The long term trends speak to continued Democratic competitiveness.

There's an enormous gender gap in North Carolina with Obama leading 57-38 among women, but trailing 56-40 with men. Romney has a 48-44 lead with independents but Democrats can lose by that margin with independents and still win overall in North Carolina as long as they keep their party base in check and for now Obama's doing that, taking 82% of the Democratic vote. Obama's up 91-7 with African American voters- any thought that his position on gay marriage would hurt him on that front can be cast aside. And he's only down 58-38 with white voters- if he can stay in that mid to upper 30s range with white voters it will probably be enough to put him over the top.

None of Romney's potential Vice Presidential choices would make too big an impact in North Carolina. The strongest, as we've found elsewhere, would be Condoleezza Rice who has a 61/25 favorability rating. In the unlikely event that she was on the ticket Romney would gain 3 points to pull into a tie at 47 in the state. Home state Senator Richard Burr, although relatively unknown in the state with 35% of voters having no opinion about him, would tighten Obama's lead to 49/47.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-slightly-ahead-in-nc.html#tp

[Robbins]

1. well

NC Isn't a lost cause.You can see despite other polls why Obama Is spending money here.

So far NC has been only swing state to have a lead by Romney.This changes that.

Romney with 4 point lead with Independents Isn't great with Obama keeping 82 percent of democrats Including 91 percent of black
vote and winning 38 percent of white vote.

[grantcart]

2. If Obama can take NC a second time his political operation will go down as one of the smartest

in the nation's history.

And putting the national convention in NC is brilliant. Romney will have to live there taking time away from other swing states.

BTW here is the Republican's biggest problem;

Among recent arrivals Obama leads 66 to 27.

Among those that arrived between10 and 30 years the President leads 58 to 37.

Obama only trails in people living there over 31 years.

Two points; the people who lived there more than 31 years is a demographic that is shrinking.

As more people move there it, like NV, AZ and Florida will become more and more Blue.

Red states grow at their own risk.

[WI_DEM]

3. it won't hurt having the convention there, either.

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Can't wait until Nate Silver factors this in

Along with the CO and VA polls, and along with the highest job openings number in 4 years, looks like the doommongers are having a tougher go of it. Not saying everything is peachy - but now we can get the troops energized.

[mgcgulfcoast]

5. this is why polling makes no sense

if im right the president won by about 8% nationally in 2008. this same PPP poll shows Obama ahead by 2 now nationally. NC was basically even last time so if he has lost 6% nationally there is no way he has gained 3% in NC. one of these PPP polls is wrong.