The Purple Poll: OH swings back to Obama; Romney leads in FL; CO & VA tight

[DCBob]

<snip>

Ohio has moved from one side to the other and back in our recent polling. In April, we showed President Obama with a 5-point lead. Last month, Mitt Romney held a 3-point lead. And today, we show President Obama taking a 3-point lead in this critical state (48% to 45%). This edge is fueled by independents, among whom he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%), as well as women (52% to 40%).

Mitt Romney maintains a small but steady advantage in Florida, currently holding a 3-point lead over President Obama. He leads by a substantial margin among independents (51% to 41%). In all four Purple States we have singled out, a gender gap exists, showing up most strongly in Ohio. Not surprisingly, Obama comes out on top in Ohio and Virginia where his margin among women is higher than his deficit among men (it is even in Colorado), and Romney enjoys a robust advantage among male voters in Florida for the time being (54% to 37%).

Virginia – considered critical to both the Romney and Obama campaign – tilts slightly toward Obama at this stage (46% to 44%). Obama also has the slightest edge in Colorado (45% to 44%). Importantly, independent voters in both states lean toward Romney by 6 points. Clearly, these Purple Predictor States remain up for grabs.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/7.2012-Purple-Poll.pdf

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My comments:

These numbers are not bad. Florida no doubt is going to be a challenge as usual but Obama doesnt need FL to win. Romney does. A win in Ohio probably guarantees an Obama win. He would only need to win the other Kerry states to come out on top. Also, these polls are pre Baingate.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Not bad numbers especially when you consider Purple Strategies is a right-leaning pollster...

My guess is that Obama does lead in Florida by a slim margin and Colorado by a healthy margin. So, if the election were today, I think Obama would win in an electoral landslide, with maybe only Indiana being the state from '08 he doesn't carry.

[DCBob]

2. I didnt know that about Purple Strategies..

Surely they are not as bad as Rasmussen.

BTW, I agree with your assesment on the landslide.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I don't know if they are as bad...

But their polls seem to poll Obama at a less overall number than the average on the whole.

Here's this from June:

Ohio's big shift is due to two polls—one from Rasmussen, and the other from Purple Strategies (a consulting group run by right-wingers and Lieberdems)—showing Romney slightly ahead. On the other hand, a recent NBC/Marist poll had Obama up 48-42. Wisconsin has dropped that far because of a single Ras poll.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/14/1099409/-Romney-gains-Obama-s-Electoral-College-lead-narrows

[DCBob]

5. Interesting.. they do sound almost as bad as Raz.

thanks for the clarification.

[mvd]

4. I'm predicting a landslide

I think he might lose IN, but could make that up with MO or AZ. Polls have shown better leads in VA and CO. I really think Rmoney is a joke of a candidate. Has no charisma and may be more stupid than Bush. Attacks can only go so far. The only reason it is close is the economy. President Obama should pull way ahead barring a total economic collapse, which I don't expect.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. And North Carolina. I don't see how he will win NC again, sadly.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I do.

He's polling better there than he was four years ago and he won. My guess is he wins by about a point.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. From your words to God's ear.

[Marzupialis]

9. How right-leaning is Purple Strategies?

Last edited Tue Jul 17, 2012, 05:10 AM - Edit history (1)

?

[bigdarryl]

10. How the FUCK can Romney be leading among woman