Hillary's poll numbers have not dropped at all

[bigdarryl]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/08/26/1415688/-Hillary-Clinton-s-poll-numbers-haven-t-dropped-at-all-and-this-one-chart-proves-it

[Sancho]

1. Nice analysis..

[jeff47]

2. Uh...people saying they have dropped are talking about the primary.

Even though people are very interested in just skipping past that formality.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[morningfog]

3. In general election polling.

We have these pesky primaries, by state, in which she has been falling.

The primary you remember, precedes the general.

[riversedge]

4. Good -- Karen Finney is tweeting this story

Karen Finney ?@finneyk 2m2 minutes ago

Hillary Clinton's poll numbers haven't dropped at all—and this one chart proves it http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/08/26/1415688/-Hillary-Clinton-s-poll-numbers-haven-t-dropped-at-all-and-this-one-chart-proves-it …

[leftofcool]

5. Karen is right on the mark.

Found a new word in the comments section........eghaziwaterwhitegate.

[Historic NY]

6. Even the primary numbers aren't that far off...

*of course people keep pining for Biden but Chaffee & Webb are barely blips.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. The trend is clear.

Keep posting those charts. Lets see where they are a month from now. If something doesn't change, you will see Hillary behind Bernie by the time the debates start.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Denial. That chart is cherry picking.

They have dropped horribly when you are talking about the primary fight.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary



Less so against the GOP because there are still 17 of them running and Trump is the front runner.

One on one match ups against people like Rubio are lower.

Her numbers are lower and continuing to drop. Deny it and cherry pick information all you want. Reality still exists.

[Garrett78]

10. I wouldn't call it cherry picking.

It's just that we're talking about 2 completely different things. Clinton vs. Sanders primary numbers as opposed to hypothetical Clinton vs. GOP numbers.

People are free to discuss either of those things, but it's absurd to try and refute one with the other. They aren't related. You don't compare baseball statistics and football statistics to argue that baseball player X is better than football player X. This isn't rocket science, folks. It's Speech and Debate 101.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. If you look at her one on one match ups against possible GOP

nominees, they are also lower than they were.

Picking out one set of data that is skewed, because there are still 17 people running, is not fair or accurate in any way.

[Garrett78]

25. As I said below...

I think these hypothetical match-ups are pretty meaningless. Right now, the candidates are focused on winning their respective primary. Once that's been settled (let's say Clinton vs. Bush), the focus will shift to the general election opponent. That completely alters the picture. The ad campaigns, "favorable" and "unfavorable" ratings, how polarizing the candidates are, debates and all sorts of other factors will influence the actual match-up.

[SonderWoman]

11. Lets check state polling:

Green is Hillary, blue is Bernie.

Eta: gray indicates no polling within 3 months.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. You need to compare them to what they were

to know if they are falling or not.

The OP is creating a comparison between the numbers that exist now and the ones that existed in the past.

Her numbers are down. That is simply the facts.


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary



Even more to the point, they started falling right about the time people here started saying they were falling. Of course the Clinton supporters attacked anyone who stated reality. They are down, the trend is clear. If something does not happen to change that fairly soon she will be behind Bernie when the first debate happens.

[SonderWoman]

16. They are down from astronomical to damn good.

And if you look at the primary schedule you would know she is in great position.

[Motown_Johnny]

19. Only if that trend does not continue.

She had huge name recognition numbers. Most of that support does not really exist. People just answered the pollster with a name they thought sounded good.

At this point there is no way to know how much is solid support and how much isn't. I really don't think we will know how this race shapes up until after the second debate.

It is just to early at this point, which is why people touting these early polls bother me. They really don't mean anything. Not this far out.

[Garrett78]

24. Name recognition and ignorance

Let's face it, most people in the US (including people all across the political spectrum) don't follow politics closely and are largely ignorant about the details. This is how you get people who support the Affordable Care Act but are against Obamacare.

The Cult of Personality is the prime driver of who people support. Politics is theater, and the US is celebrity-obsessed.

[moobu2]

18. OMG it looks like Hillary's in trouble.

[BlueCaliDem]

27. Heh.

[HereSince1628]

9. LOL!!! That was well done. Unfortunately it is obviously not about the primary and moreover

it reflects a general rejection of GOP candidates by democratic voters.

If that's the sort of analysis Camp Clinton is producing, that camp is lying to itself

[Garrett78]

13. Sanders vs. GOP Field

Some may find this of interest: http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/latest-national-poll-shows-bernie-sanders-beating-scott-walker-donald-trump-jeb-bush

Personally, though, I think these hypothetical match-ups are pretty meaningless. Right now, the candidates are focused on winning their respective primary. Once that's been settled (say Clinton vs. Bush), the focus will shift to the general election opponent. That completely alters the picture. The ad campaigns, "favorable" and "unfavorable" ratings, how polarizing the candidates are, debates and all sorts of other factors will influence the actual match-up.

[moobu2]

17. But the press hasn't started digging into Bernie Sanders past yet.

So far he's been getting fluffy press about his large crowds and that's about all. Afte rthey start in on him his numbers wont hold up.

[Stallion]

15. Start from Premise: Nobody in Washington is Popular

there are 3 large segments of Americans

Democrats
Republicans who still admit it
Independents/Tea Party

No politician that is well known has a favorable rating above 50% because none of the 3 groups have more than 40% reliable support. Favorability among well know candidates is really generally more closely tracking the favorability of one of the 3 groups. But elections require harder choices requiring voters to choose a better of two evils

[Garrett78]

20. However...

one's "unfavorable rating" indicates how polarizing a figure is, and that I'm guessing is what the party establishment worries about the most with regard to Clinton. Her "unfavorable rating" is much higher than her "favorable rating" the last I looked, whereas every other Dem candidate (or potential candidate in the case of Biden) had a higher favorable than unfavorable rating.

And please don't take that as bashing Hillary. I think the right wing critique of her is irrational and insane (and largely driven by misogyny), but it's also very potent. She'll definitely get the base out to vote, but which base?

[Stallion]

22. More Facts to Evaluate

oh I hear what you are saying

But consider this evidence that ties into my theory that in 2015 Favorability is tracking or is limited by one of the 3 segments-Democrats, admitted Republicans and Tea Party/Independents

Out of all the announced candidates for President-or at least the ones tracked by Pollster- only 1 candidate has a Favorability rating ABOVE the favorability of their party-Hilliary at 42%/Democrats at 40%

Further, only 2 out of 12 have a positive favorability-Sanders and Carson (who has never run for office)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#favorability-ratings

[frylock]

21. Preparing for the Super Bowl when you're not even out of the preseason is always a winning strategy.

[ram2008]

23. What is planet Hillary smoking?

Cause that sure is some fuzzy math.

[Gothmog]

26. Clinton's polling numbers are still very strong