2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs there a recent poll showing Sanders trailing Hillary by only 39-43? I thought
I saw a thread on it a few days ago, failed to bookmark it and now cannot find it.
Any assistance would be appreciated. Arguing with someone who claims Hillary has a 40-point lead.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)'Ipsos now has Biden doing better than Sanders among likely primary voters:
Hillary 63%
Biden 14%
Sanders 13%'
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110714794
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)I saw a thread here that had Sanders only trailing by 4, within the MoE (IIRC). Can't remember for the life of me whether it was a NH outlier or some other poll.
Oy, that will teach me to bookmark shit the first time I see it
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)5 points behind Hillary. Same poll showed him 8 points behind her a couple of weeks ago.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)National polls are simply about name recognition. We vote state by state.
But, in any case, the NH poll the OP asked about is not an outlier. It's an aggregate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And the poll the OP referenced isn't the aggregate but the Gravis NH poll found on the page you referenced.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)National polls before even the first debate don't tell you much about anything except who people know the most.
Part of the reason it's different this year is because the DNC, in their infinite "wisdom," have so kneecapped anyone but HRC in limiting the debates to only six. By this time in 2008, we'd already had several debates. We haven't had a one, yet.
On edit: But thanks for pointing out the Gravis poll. I thought the OP might have seen the aggregate and not the one poll.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And you can see that as the national race has tightened slightly, state races have also tightened slightly. At this stage, national polling is about as useful as counting up votes from each individual state that has polled to figure out the race.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)he has worked to gain more recognition, NH up 3 points from their last poll. So clearly once people KNOW him, his poll numbers go up drastically. Which is why it will take a while since he had virtually 0 name recognition just months ago.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)My point is that national polling is as valid as trying to act each state's individual results to figure out where things stand. And nationally Sanders had gone up; the question is can he break beyond his very liberal homogeneous base.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)the political spectrum. Eg, he is even getting Republicans to sign up, Libertarians, Independents who are now the largest voting bloc in the country as people flee both parties and are not likely to come back to vote for what they fled from.
And he is going after non-voters who have given up on the status quo completely. I, eg, have already signed up one non voter without even trying. Just asking why don't you vote, then telling her about Bernie and she is so excited she plans to sign up as a Dem for the first time in years.
the polls are not reflecting all these demographics because in open primary states, many are not even registered yet, or are registered as Independents still.
So I believe Bernie will attract far more cross over voters than any of the Status Quo candidates. Bernie eg, is already beating the top three Repubs by several points even without the name recognition he will need to win the nomination.
And then there's the other factor. Few of his supporters, he is attracting young voters in very large numbers, own landlines and these polls are still polling mostly people with landlines.
hedda_foil
(16,372 posts)Gravis is one of the three.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Based on the numbers he referenced. The aggregate is a wider spread.
hedda_foil
(16,372 posts)So what I'm seeing is your picking out one poll that is closest to the numbers remembered by the OP and trying to discredit that single data point while ignoring the other 2 polls in the RCP average, as well as the fact that the aggregate is very close to the numbers the OP mentioned.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)That's it.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Some of the state polls have shown things closer.
There was a post of a poll among readers of TPM that had a number similar to that...but when I went to TPM I couldn't find it.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)to bookmark it and am now regretting my earlier lassitude.
Ah well, lesson learned.
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)You can see it in the link Fawke supplied.
hedda_foil
(16,372 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Gravis fits the spread the OP asked for.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The July 25-27 survey by Portland-based DHM Research shows Clinton, the former secretary of state, leading the Democratic primary in Oregon with 44 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Sanders, a Vermont senator.
http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2015/08/oregon_presidential_poll_hilla.html
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)So utterly unscientific and with massive sampling issues that aggregating sites didn't even bother to include it. Really hope the OP was thinking of the NH poll instead.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)are mostly polling people with landlines. Who has a landline anymore? I know a few of them are adding some cell phone polls, but mostly still polling on landlines.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Sample of 200 people, MoE of+/-7, internet poll with respondents only invited from previous polling.
Seriously, there is a reason the Oregon poll wasn't picked up nationally or included in aggregates. It was a faux report designed to drum up publicity for the marketing firm and paper that commissioned it.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It shows Bernie higher than other recent polls, but it's not so high as to be unrealistic.