2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum'I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow' - so says SCOTUSblog.
Pretty strong claim from a reputable source.
In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it. I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.
But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow. (I dont have any inside information, nor does anyone else.) My prediction includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the Court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.
My level of confidence isnt overwhelming, but its good enough to give a concrete prediction. Well see.
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,525 posts)I so hope he's right.
*fingers crossed*
Swede Atlanta
(3,596 posts)I expect the majority of the rest of the law to be upheld HOWEVER
I think the Supremes (cowards) are going to leave it to the Appellate Court to decide if striking down the mandate makes the rest of the law untenable.
Those are my predictions. I hope I am wrong in a favorable direction but that is my prediction.
I'm not a gambling man but let's see.
HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)But this guy knows what he's talking about. Not to say you don't. But I'm assuming you're not as knowledgeable as he is on this (and I ain't either, so, don't take that as an attack). Ultimately, I hope he's right and you're wrong.
SDjack
(1,448 posts)insurance companies seem to accept the mandate. Brings in lots of new money. So, I think "the fix" is in, and the Court will validate.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Overturning it is at 74% probability...(which Nate Silver says is "overconfident". It would be easy
for someone working in the court to tell someone to buy on intrade.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It was somewhere in the 80s and now it's down to 73.8%, so, it's dropping. Very marginally, of course, but who knows.
I do trust this guy's opinion. He may not be right, but I think he's as good of a source on this as anyone else they've trotted out to speculate the court will overturn the mandate.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)decided if Obama is better off having it overturned or not. Of course, totally from a
political point of view. The detrimental effect on millions will be felt if it is.
Of course, we have no PR machine on our side, but I could see if we did, and it
got overturned, you could really play it up to the max...millions to suffer, they took
away your insurance ! (18-25 year olds), pre-existing conditions..See ya.
although I did read that one insurance company was going to keep that provision
regardless of what happens tomorrow.
Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #8)
Drunken Irishman This message was self-deleted by its author.
CTyankee
(63,892 posts)a chance to think of the consequences of overturning ("OMG, I'm gonna lose my health care insurance!" , that hadn't sunk in back when it was being written...
all this theorizing...I have to laugh at myself for even doing a bit of it...kinda funny, since I really have no control over what's gonna happen...
longship
(40,416 posts)But, tomorrow if the source is correct, it will be able to claim awesome insight based solely on confirmation bias
Damn! I am glad I bought all that microwave popcorn the other day. Better get another bag popping.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Unless he's one of the 9 Justices voting, of course he doesn't know their overall ruling. He's making a prediction, that is all.
longship
(40,416 posts)Since nobody here or anywhere outside SCOTUS knows what the ruling will be.
But those who, by virtue of being correct in a universe of limited outcomes, will claim prescience. But as I wrote in my post above, it's all confirmation bias.
I am done here.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Any prediction on anything, from what the weather will be like tomorrow to what sports team will win this weekend, is meaningless. It doesn't mean, however, people shouldn't make 'em or we shouldn't have a discussion of them. This guy's making a prediction. That's all. You getting so upset over it is unusual, to say the least.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Problem with posting things that are fluid. haha
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)take my debit card. No idea why, maybe my bank has some kind
of protection deal...don't let her do anything crazy...haha.
By the way, it says "if you think it won't happen" sell (shares you don't have).
This sounds so counter-intuitive..but too tired to think it through
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)some people turned on by team sports, competition, guessing on the unknown and others
so completely uninterested. Like the difference between the people who wanted to
know what their Christmas present was before it was time and someone who has no interest
in knowing until the time comes.
CTyankee
(63,892 posts)The librarians frown upon people going into political rants there...
Stuart G
(38,414 posts)THAT THE PRINCIPAL OPINION WRITTEN BY ROBERTS....shift down to small letters now..