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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 09:50 AM Jun 2012

NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney getting hammered in the Swing States

While the national numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll show a stable presidential race, First Read notes Mitt Romney had a "rough month" in the swing states.

"Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama's lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney's favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney's fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states."

"What's more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney's business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they've seen and heard about Romney's business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it's more NEGATIVE. That's compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states -- like here and here and here -- are having an impact."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/27/romney_getting_hammered_in_the_swing_states.html

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NBC/WSJ Poll: Romney getting hammered in the Swing States (Original Post) WI_DEM Jun 2012 OP
I am worried. We haven't heard to much from Mitten's and his friends. Remember southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #1
I'm sure they are waiting, but... WI_DEM Jun 2012 #3
Not waiting here in NC unc70 Jun 2012 #9
Obama will be hit with a one-two punch tomorrow. First, the "contempt" vote in the House. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #10
The more I thought about it the more mad I got. I called both Senator and Congressman in southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #14
How did they respond to your last question? Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #16
None. Just what I figured. I had the senator's aide tongue tied. He didn't know what to southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #19
I live in Cleveland, the largest media market in the state..... WCGreen Jun 2012 #26
Same in Iowa CoffeeCat Jun 2012 #33
hope your right. but they may hold their nose and still vote for mittens. southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #34
The more they see of Romney the less they like... WCGreen Jun 2012 #37
Yet the MSNBC website has this: NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney remain in dead heat sinkingfeeling Jun 2012 #2
If this polling is accurate, then that is disingenuous. RDANGELO Jun 2012 #4
Yep! That's the issue. Whereas Obama may be winning in a lot of BLUE states, it's not Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #11
Why? If Obama wins the blue states, he wins because it's the electorial votes sinkingfeeling Jun 2012 #13
Yes, I know. I was just surmising what I think it's happening with respect to the national polls Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #17
National polls are screwy in relation to presidential elections. LiberalFighter Jun 2012 #18
Hence, why we shouldn't lose sleep over it. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #20
Don't we have to win some red states? They've got a lot of votes. freshwest Jun 2012 #23
Will someone who knows answer freshwest's post/questions? siligut Jun 2012 #42
I always look at this map to get an idea of what is going on: Blasphemer Jun 2012 #43
Thanks! Too bad about TX. CA is undergoing changes too, but not disenfranchising. freshwest Jun 2012 #44
Two words: The South... Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #12
That's Not A Bad Guess DallasNE Jun 2012 #22
South is not THAT pro-Romney Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #24
Of course it depends on certain states... Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #25
Utah Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #27
Certainly those states drive down the numbers... Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #28
Florida is full of yankee transplants pstokely Jun 2012 #29
Of course he is, which is why Obama leads overall... Drunken Irishman Jun 2012 #30
South is more Anti-Obama than Pro-Romney pstokely Jun 2012 #32
This Poll Frequently Has Issues With Demographics DallasNE Jun 2012 #21
They are using registered voters for their poll. Polls using likely voters show a much SlimJimmy Jun 2012 #39
Maybe the swing states are sick of Republican chicanery? Baitball Blogger Jun 2012 #5
Chicanery.... woolldog Jun 2012 #6
Guess that swing state, "Obama is out of Touch," tour was a roaring success... Kahuna Jun 2012 #7
Every time I see that Romney ad about "out of touch Obama"... polichick Jun 2012 #8
This is looking good. DCBob Jun 2012 #15
"pummeling Romney" BootinUp Jun 2012 #31
"Romney's favorability numbers have dropped." Botany Jun 2012 #35
OK, time for a good RMoney Photoshop on the bus groundloop Jun 2012 #36
After his comments about getting rid of firefighters last week.... Gumboot Jun 2012 #38
Bad signs for Romney in Colorado Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #45
I have not doubt why - it is obvious BAIN - BAIN - BAIN they must keep this message going 24/7 - Douglas Carpenter Jun 2012 #40
Every poll I have seen BBGC Jun 2012 #41
 

southernyankeebelle

(11,304 posts)
1. I am worried. We haven't heard to much from Mitten's and his friends. Remember
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:05 AM
Jun 2012

when Newt was getting positive press right before SC (a state Newtie won) the Mittens team just hammered him with negative ads. I am afraid that they are holding back on Obama and waiting til right before the Nov. then hit him like they hit Newtie. Obama doesn't have that kind of money. Negative works. They are holding back and waiting.

unc70

(6,095 posts)
9. Not waiting here in NC
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:11 PM
Jun 2012

Both sides are running lots of ads here in NC. Nothing quiet about it at all. I have been polled multiple times, including two RW push polls, and this is still just June.

If I, a very obvious liberal, am getting RW push polls, think was conservatives are getting. And somehow I am now on the Teaparty email list. Really interesting seeing what wild things they are pushing each and every day.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
10. Obama will be hit with a one-two punch tomorrow. First, the "contempt" vote in the House.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:16 PM
Jun 2012

Then, the Supreme Court ruling. Then we'll see a barage of negative ads.

Mitt Romney had better be careful though. If the SCOTUS strikes down the individual mandate as unconstitutional, shouldn't that invalidate MA's law?

 

southernyankeebelle

(11,304 posts)
14. The more I thought about it the more mad I got. I called both Senator and Congressman in
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:15 PM
Jun 2012

my districts. I asked both since republicans and their friends at Fox are dancing in the streets hoping that the supreme court repeals the health care what are you going to do to help this people. Neither office had a response. They both said they will wait for the release. I said well you should have an idea since to have that back door to the supreme court and you have known for a long time. I would think you should have some ideas. None for either one of them. I asked what were they going to do about this Corporations are people. I told them they should all being wearing logos since they work for corporations and not the american people. I also asked what have they done since the mid elections except take womens rights away.

 

southernyankeebelle

(11,304 posts)
19. None. Just what I figured. I had the senator's aide tongue tied. He didn't know what to
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:04 PM
Jun 2012

say. I told him to make sure he told the senator everything I said.

WCGreen

(45,558 posts)
26. I live in Cleveland, the largest media market in the state.....
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:07 AM
Jun 2012

Romney has been hammering president Obama relentlessly since the middle of May.

They just don't like Romney.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
33. Same in Iowa
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 06:32 AM
Jun 2012

We've been bombarded with negative Obama ads for many weeks now. The ad I see repeatedly is the one where Obama repeatedly says, "The private sector is doing fine."

Seriously? If this is what Romney has, then I feel sorry for him. Romney has a tough battle in Iowa. Sanatorium won the Iowa Republican caucus by a very slim margin. The Republican base here in Iowa is not too thrilled with Romney. Obama is very well liked here.

RDANGELO

(3,430 posts)
4. If this polling is accurate, then that is disingenuous.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:47 AM
Jun 2012

The President is looking at a comfortable win in the electoral college. Romney must be winning by some huge margins in red states.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
11. Yep! That's the issue. Whereas Obama may be winning in a lot of BLUE states, it's not
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:19 PM
Jun 2012

by that much, compared to the lopsided beating Mittens is giving him in the RED states. So that is the problem, hence the purging of the voters in RED states. If the Republicans can keep a lot of Democrats from voting in traditionally RED states, that helps Mittens with his national polling percentage.

That's what's going on here. The national polls don't matter as much as the state polls do.

And even then, it's still only June. If the polls look like this after the two conventions, then I'll start to worry. But polls mean very little right now.

sinkingfeeling

(51,278 posts)
13. Why? If Obama wins the blue states, he wins because it's the electorial votes
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:50 PM
Jun 2012

that count. Popular vote could well go to Rmoney, but Obama would still win.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
17. Yes, I know. I was just surmising what I think it's happening with respect to the national polls
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 05:05 PM
Jun 2012

vs. the state by state polls and why there is this discrepancy.

LiberalFighter

(50,504 posts)
18. National polls are screwy in relation to presidential elections.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 05:46 PM
Jun 2012

Too much weight is applied to smaller states when dumped into the mix.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
20. Hence, why we shouldn't lose sleep over it.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:43 PM
Jun 2012

People always seem to lose it over these national polls when it's really the state polls in SWING states that really matter.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
23. Don't we have to win some red states? They've got a lot of votes.
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:29 AM
Jun 2012

Gore got over half a million more votes than Bush population-wise and lost because of the way states send in their electors. All or nothing, I think. So we should get some red states and I don't know if we will. Some of the now red states that voted for Obama now have GOP governor instead of Democrats and they've changed things up. PA looks to be more problematic because they have disenfranchised over half a million voters and they are doing the same elsewhere.
I don't think we really have a reliable electoral count, someone tell me.

siligut

(12,272 posts)
42. Will someone who knows answer freshwest's post/questions?
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:12 PM
Jun 2012

It seems we often agree freshwest, my concerns are similar.

Blasphemer

(3,261 posts)
43. I always look at this map to get an idea of what is going on:
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 07:40 PM
Jun 2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

It seems to me that Romney has to win Florida and Ohio while Obama has a clear avenue to victory even without those big states.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
44. Thanks! Too bad about TX. CA is undergoing changes too, but not disenfranchising.
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 07:59 PM
Jun 2012

I hate to think what the October surprise will be this year. It seems like the GOP always have one. They wanted the ACA struck down, and failed. I think they expected a one-two punch to shoot at Obama today.

Holder's being held in contempt isn't that big a deal unless he can be arrested. They want to smear Obama. I think the American people may see through this, but have the luxury of living in a 'leans Obama' area.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
12. Two words: The South...
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:24 PM
Jun 2012

My guess is that Obama holds sizable leads over Romney in the NE & West, a respectable lead in the Midwest and is absolutely getting crushed in the South - driving up Romney's overall support.

DallasNE

(7,392 posts)
22. That's Not A Bad Guess
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:56 PM
Jun 2012

Though it is hard to understand how that is possible in Texas with their large Hispanic population. Indeed, could they be under polling the Hispanic vote? Without lifting the sheets on who they polled and whether those numbers fit the overall demographics for the State.

Even places like Realclearpolitics have some issues because they overweight Republican leaning polls like Rassmussen.

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
24. South is not THAT pro-Romney
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 01:39 AM
Jun 2012

But Romney's support doesn't seem any better in the South compared to other Republican nominees, and in fact, it appears to be worse in certain places. So I'm not sure if Obama is doing that badly in the South.

And it depends what parts of the South we are talking about. Florida is a Southern state and Obama is doing well there, as he is in Virginia. He's also still got a shot at North Carolina. And then there are places like Texas where Romney only has about a 10-point lead.

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
27. Utah
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:12 AM
Jun 2012

Well, there was a poll this week that gave Romney a 42-point lead in Utah, so perhaps that's helping him. (one could argue that lead should be larger though!)

I think there was also a poll in Oklahoma last month showing Obama behind by about 35 points, so those seem to be two of the worst states.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
28. Certainly those states drive down the numbers...
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:19 AM
Jun 2012

McCain won Utah by 28 points, so, Romney is doing better there. Obama's numbers are on the level of Kerry's, who lost Utah by 45 points in '04.

pstokely

(10,510 posts)
29. Florida is full of yankee transplants
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:30 AM
Jun 2012

It's only "Southern" North of Orlando, Romney is under performing in a lot of solid red states

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
30. Of course he is, which is why Obama leads overall...
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 02:42 AM
Jun 2012

But he's still getting trounced in a great deal of these states. Sure, compared to Gore & Kerry, he's doing better, most likely, in these red states and Romney is under performing compared to Bush. But that doesn't mean these states, and the interior west (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho) aren't driving down Obama's numbers overall, though. Obama better be outperforming Kerry in almost every state because Kerry didn't win the popular vote - and in this poll, he is, as Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.4%. That is a swing of 5.4% if these numbers are to be believed. Just marginally improving across the board from '04's results, though, would equal a victory.

DallasNE

(7,392 posts)
21. This Poll Frequently Has Issues With Demographics
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:48 PM
Jun 2012

In other words, they often over poll Republicans so you have to lift the sheets and take a peek before accepting the results. Note, I haven't done that so I am just saying be skeptical not that they are wrong this time. And that is a constant problem with polls -- who are they talking to.

SlimJimmy

(3,171 posts)
39. They are using registered voters for their poll. Polls using likely voters show a much
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 12:03 PM
Jun 2012

closer race.

The margin of error for 1,000 interviews among adults is ±3.1%
The margin of error for 819 interviews among registered voters is ±3.4%

polichick

(37,152 posts)
8. Every time I see that Romney ad about "out of touch Obama"...
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:17 PM
Jun 2012

I say, "Give me a freakin' break" - and I'll bet millions of viewers say the same thing.

The ad just reminds voters that Romney is out of touch.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
15. This is looking good.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:20 PM
Jun 2012

I didnt particularly like that ad but it seems to be working. I guess they know what they are doing.

well done!

Botany

(70,291 posts)
35. "Romney's favorability numbers have dropped."
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 09:09 AM
Jun 2012

aka The more people get to know Romney the less they like him.



Notice the throngs of people and that nobody is smiling too.

Gumboot

(531 posts)
38. After his comments about getting rid of firefighters last week....
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 11:13 AM
Jun 2012

Romney can kiss goodbye to his chances in the western states.

I'm in Colorado Springs, and I've noticed a lot of Romney signs and bumper stickers have vanished over these last few days.

President Obama is visiting here tomorrow - I doubt Mittens will be showing his sorry face any time soon.

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
45. Bad signs for Romney in Colorado
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 08:03 PM
Jun 2012

1. In what was a bad year for the Democrats in 2010, they managed to win the Governorship, and the Senate seat.

2. Obama won in Colorado in 2008 by 9 points.

3. Obama is ahead of Romney in the Colorado polls. In fact, I don't see one Colorado poll this year showing a Romney lead. The best he does is a TIE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

4. Romney lost Colorado to Rick Santorum by 5 points in the primary.

5. Obama has 70% of the Latino vote in Colorado according to last week's Latino Decisions poll:

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012-battleground-states/

BBGC

(61 posts)
41. Every poll I have seen
Thu Jun 28, 2012, 12:32 PM
Jun 2012

Suggests that this will be a close election, but the president has been ahead of romney overall. It is looking very very good.

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