Palmetto State Poll HRC 78% SBS 8% JB 6% SEW 6% M O 1% JW 1%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-democratic-primary


The accuracy of Gravis has been called into question so i would take those results with a grain of salt. They are a robocaller, landline phone only pollster. But Huff Po and RCP use them in their averages.

[Scootaloo]

1. I still find it odd that someone who isn't a candidate keeps getting included.

[Thinkingabout]

2. Interesting numbers, this may just be one state and it takes 49 states voting and then a winner is

declared the nominee.

[frazzled]

3. But it's an early state, just like Iowa and New Hampshire

And it's the first diverse state, in terms of racial composition.

So if this is just one state, then we should be treating Iowa and NH polls as just one state as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The last six presidents have won the South Carolina primary.

The last six presidents have won the South Carolina primary. The last three presidents have lost the New Hampshire primary. Partially an artifact and partially a fact...The reason it has more predictive value is because it's a much better proxy for the broader constituencies of the Democratic and Republican parties than New Hampshire.

[Thinkingabout]

24. I agree, the primary isn't decided by the first early states, itis a process, it will not be

determined by one debate either, I am in for the long haul. I appreciate your point, the last three presidents have lost NH but won in SC.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, Bush ll, Obama all won the SC primary.

Clinton, Bush ll, Obama, all lost the NH primary.

[Thinkingabout]

32. Thanks, will be looking forward to the SC primary.

[ismnotwasm]

4. Holy shit

Now that's impressive

[canuck eh]

7. Gravis Marketing - F- in polling.

Just as bad as Unskewed Polls.

This poll is fully rejected. Includes unnecessary data that really doesn't mesh.

[Adrahil]

16. Are you quoting from something?

538 rates them a "C" with slightly better than average predictive value.

[erronis]

29. Slightly better than throwing darts while blindfolded? Why do we care so much at this point?

[Adrahil]

38. I'm not sure I agree with your assessment...

... but if that's the way you feel, just ignore the poll threads until you think they matter.

I'm an engineer, and a data junkie. I read Nate Silver pretty religiously. I get some kind of weird entertainment out of it. If you don't... fair winds and following seas, my friend!

[erronis]

41. Yup - good riposte from a religious data junkie!

I'm a data scientist and a BSEE. So f'n what?

What makes you so defensive about doubting polls? Is Nate Silver some type of god? I seriously doubt that he wants to be worshiped. (And yes, I admire his work but know that horse races are just that.)

I do read polls and watch them skew in whatever direction their helmsmen want them to. Since you and much of this country wants to believe in their infallibility, all I'm suggesting is that we have a nice little post-poll analysis as to how well they did.

[Adrahil]

44. I'm not defensive....

Feel free to doubt away.

Silver is not a god, but I think he is VERY smart when it comes to building credible predictive models. And like I said, this is mostly for my entertainment, and the entertainment of others who enjoy that kind of thing. This polls have good correlation with results, but I wouldn't EXACTLY call them super predictive. When combined with other measures, you get a better picture, but of course, in the end, only the result counts. One thing I find interesting is trying to pick the "good" polls from the "bad" ones. I rely pretty heavily on Silver's analysis of the pollsters for that (which is pretty comprehensive), but I am starting to learn to pick out the indicators of a dud poll.

I'll be happy to talk about the poll performance after the nomination. Love that kind of stuff.

[MyNameGoesHere]

18. You're probably right

good thing other pollster show a 46 to 60% lead over the next candidate. So let's throw in a 55% margin of error. HRC still leads. Swish.

[freshwest]

8. DSB, is it a poll of Democratic registered voters, not the whole population?

Does show that our die-hard Democrats in a depressingly red region are firming up their support behind HRC. And the addition of PPP numbers makes it more impressive.

I wonder if the GOP voters in the state are for Trump, as he appears to be the leader of the pack now?

TIA for clarification, DSB. Oh, and great post as usual.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Trump is doing well in the Palmetto State too

...

[George II]

9. Amazing numbers....even with a margin of error and all the other extraneous factors....

....that get considered in poll results, this is stunning.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. South Carolina was where the 2000 McCain candidacy went to die though he soldiered on in vain.

eom

[shenmue]

12. Kaboom

[William769]

13. Kick & highly recommended!

[okasha]

14. Hillary's the Secretariat in this race.

Over the finish line before the others even turn into the stretch.

[BainsBane]

15. #feeltheBernOut

[lunamagica]

45. #feeltheBernOut

[Cheese Sandwich]

17. South Carolina is done. Hillary by a landslide. Nobody can make a dent. It's not in play at all.

Hillary has had it totally locked up from day 1.

No other campaign can afford to put money there because she has such a huge lead. It would be a waste of money. Everyone will make a respectful, symbolic effort, but that's all it can be.

[Metric System]

20. You forgot the sarcasm tag.

[Cheese Sandwich]

25. Not sarcasm. Hillary will win the SC primary by a landslide. There's no question or doubt.

It's a lock. She has overwhelming organization and strength there. By now the Clinton campaign probably has every primary voter mapped and identified, they have contacts and connections everywhere.

It's a case of just total overwhelming dominance. Nobody could even put a dent or compete. It's like the US invading a small island nation or something like that. She controls every square inch. And they haven't even started the air war yet. She can carpet bomb every TV station with commercials.

There is no hope, for any other candidate in the SC primary. It's a total lock.

The picture could change a little if Biden gets in. And Webb could pick up a little bit. But they would mostly just vacuum up the undecided voters, and increase Hillary's net strength.

(opinion)

[Metric System]

27. Sorry, I assumed it was snark.

[NYCButterfinger]

21. Jim Webb can make SC relevant

He's a Southerner, he can do well, but won't win the state. I can see Webb winning Kentucky and West Virginia, with his crazy confederate sympathizer nonsense.

[Historic NY]

37. LOL not going to happen....

he is barely a tick on a mules back at this point.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/12/jim-webb-confronts-leftists-not-my-democratic-part/

Besides he seems to agree with Sen Mitch McConnell too much

[erronis]

42. Wow - first time I've seen someone quoting Rev. Moon's rag.

[Historic NY]

49. You haven't been here long enough....its the same thing the other rags have.

Note they picked up his FOX news interview......it for those who use FOX as a source too. Of course its no different that what the other media outlets sourced either is it.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/01/jim_webb_wants_to_be_a_white_man_s_democrat_the_former_virginia_senator.html

http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/12/jim-webb-dems-have-moved-way-far-to-the-left-thats-not-my-democratic-party/

[Amimnoch]

19. whoo hoo. K&R.

[YodaJedi215]

22. Hillary can't afford to debate Bernie

Hillary is polling on name recognition.
Soon as Hillary opens her mouth and says she is for TPP
She is for more war.
Hillary knows she can not stand on a debate stage with Bernie.

[Metric System]

28. Welcome to DU! I'm sure you'll fit right in.

[nc4bo]

30. I don't think so either. One or two will taste fresh and home grown. The others

Like frozen tv dinners or a can of green beans.

[SoapBox]

36. Bernie will eat her lunch in the debates!

Period!

[Thinkingabout]

31. You obliviously do not know much about Hillary. The TPP issue will be decided before Hillary is

president, so it is a mute issue in this race. As for being for war, it seems Bernie must be for war also since he voted for the AUMF and without the funding there would not have been a war. Let's get serious here. If anyone is going to be afraid on the debate it will be other than Hillary.

[SoapBox]

33. LOLOLOL

The Hill and TPP...

She can just shrug her shoulders after it's said and done (since that's what she has done now), while the American people get TOTALLY screwed!

What a great candidate...not.

She needs to take a stance against it NOW...because if she doesn't, it means that she supports it!

And...it is NOT completed as various countries are pulling back or...trying to get more.

[Thinkingabout]

51. What part of accepting or rejecting TPP does Hillary have?

[NYC Liberal]

39. Hillary will eat Sanders alive in a debate.

Sanders doesn't stand a chance — either in the debates, or in the primaries.

[GP6971]

40. Enjoy your stay n/t

[Gamecock Lefty]

23. Where are the headlines that say . . .

Bernie SURGES to 8%???

RAISE HILL 2016!

[zeemike]

34. Where is the headline that says Robocall land line poll says?

It is as credible as the poll that showed Saddam with a 98% approval rating.
But it's value is in giving the appearance of inviability, which is the most important thing for supporters.

[Adrahil]

46. Show me the data....

Nate Silver rates them slightly worse than average. They are not the strongest pollster, but they are far from the weakest.

I wouldn't hang my hat on their poll, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Al Gore beat Bill Bradley in SC 92% -8%

eom

[erronis]

35. Sad commentary from HRC supporters. Why not welcome some dynamics?

If she is already anointed then there is no excitement within the party. Coronation is scheduled for 1PM.

At least the party of the stupids know how to grab eyeballs. And what your friendly MBAs will tell you, just get the name out there, over and over. No matter how annoying or imbecilic - just get that in front of the viewers. Viola: Christie, Trumpster, etc.

I don't want to disagree with the Demographic Party (looking for triangulation), but sometimes there are real reasons with taking a new tack instead of relying on the same old party (paid) hacks.

[lunamagica]

47. WOW!!!

HUGE K&R!!!

[DCBob]

50. Bernie has little appeal below the Mason-Dixon.

And not that much above it.