USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly backing Obama

[Eugene]

Source: USA Today

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly backing Obama

By Susan Page, USA TODAY Updated 26m ago

WASHINGTON – President Obama has built an overwhelming lead among Latino voters, a nationwide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Hispanics finds, as Republican challenger Mitt Romney faces a difficult path ahead to make inroads among what has been the nation's fastest-growing ethnic group for a generation.

The president leads Romney 66%-25% among more than 1,000 Latino registered voters surveyed April 16 to May 31, matching his muscular showing in the 2008 election among Hispanics. Romney is in the weakest position among Latinos of any presidential contender since 1996 — and in those intervening 16 years their percentage of the electorate has doubled.

Since the poll was taken, Obama has fortified Hispanic enthusiasm by announcing he would block the deportation of an estimated 800,000 undocumented young Latinos who were brought to the United States as children. In a subsequent USA TODAY/Gallup survey, taken Wednesday-Saturday, more than eight in 10 Latinos approved of the president's action, most of them strongly.

[font size=1]-snip-[/font]

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-24/Hispanic-voters-Obama-Romney-election/55796866/1

[Rosanna Lopez]

1. A good start

We obviously know that most Latino voters will vote Democratic - that has been the case stretching back decades. The question is by how much. Karl Rove's strategy is to skim just enough off the top among different demographic groups to win in certain key states. It's important that it be a large majority of Latinos who vote for Obama - not just a small majority.

It will likely be a large majority again this year as in 2008, but there have been different polls showing differing sizes of majority for Obama. We'll have to examine their range in the months to come.

[Happydayz]

11. Latinos have not always voted for democrats

At least not in key important swing states, like Florida, Va, Az, Nv and NM. GWB, won Latinos in FL in 2004. Latinos, are a more powerful demographic than they were a decade or two ago. So Obama leading big among Latinos in swing states is very important.

[freshwest]

2. Any good news is great; but I think this is as Obama has said, more about ideals.

I don't think the election will be primarily about the categories that the media gives us to use, ethnicity, gender, race or sexual orientantion.

I think it will be about Americans deciding what is more important to them:

Their religion, economic status or traditions;

Or their belief in national unity, good governance and respect for individual rights.

Only those who believe in equality no matter who it advantages, doing the right thing being more important than the first three, will vote for the last three.

The GOP is the party running on the first three; Obama is running on the last three.

The reason I divide it that way instead of by the categories the media uses, is there are people in all of those who different on the the choices that I listed. I think this is the only way that Obama can win the election is to focus there.

[Rosanna Lopez]

3. Taken before last week's announcement

One thing I just noticed about this poll is that it was taken BEFORE Obama's immigration announcement last week. So perhaps his numbers will go even higher among Latinos once a poll is taken in the time period after that announcement.

Time well tell.

[Rosanna Lopez]

4. Latino Decisions state-by-state numbers

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/22/new-poll-obama-leads-romney-among-latinos-in-key-2012-battleground-states/

I found some state-by-state polling numbers:

Latino Decisions poll - June 22

ARIZONA

Obama - 74%

Romney - 18%

.

COLORADO

Obama - 70%

Romney - 22%

.

FLORIDA

Obama - 53%

Romney - 37%

.

NEVADA

Obama - 69%

Romney - 20%

.

VIRGINIA

Obama - 59%

Romney - 28%

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. Those numbers must keep the Rmoney team up at night. Thanks for posting.

[CobaltBlue]

9. 2008 vs. 2012

ELECTION 2008
Popular Vote: o John McCain 45.66% ✓ Barack Obama 52.92% (D+7.26; Pickup!)

ELECTION 2012
Popular Vote: ? Mitt Romney ??.??% Barack Obama ??.??%

ELECTION 2008
Hispanic (9): McCain 31% Obama 67% (D+36)

ELECTION 2012 (poll, not official)
Hispanic (?): Romney 25% Obama 66% (D+41 — a shift of D+5)


ARIZONA 2008
Popular Vote: ✓ John McCain 53.39% o Barack Obama 44.91% (R+8.48)
Hispanic (16): McCain 41% Obama 58% (D+17)

ARIZONA 2012 (poll, not official)
Popular Vote: ?
Hispanic (?): Romney 18% Obama 74% (D+56 — a shift of D+39)

COLORADO 2008
Popular Vote: o John McCain 44.71% ✓ Barack Obama 53.66% (D+8.95; Pickup!)
Hispanic (13): McCain 38% Obama 61% (D+23)

COLORADO 2012 (poll, not official)
Popular Vote: ?
Hispanic (?): Romney 22% Obama 70% (D+48 — a shift of D+25)

FLORIDA 2008
Popular Vote: o John McCain 48.10% ✓ Barack Obama 50.91% (D+2.81; Pickup!)
Hispanic (14): McCain 42% Obama 57% (D+15)

FLORIDA 2012 (poll, not official)
Popular Vote: ?
Hispanic (?): Romney 37% Obama 53% (D+16 — a statistical status quo)

NEVADA 2008
Popular Vote: o John McCain 42.65% ✓ Barack Obama 55.15% (D+12.50; Pickup!)
Hispanic (15): McCain 22% Obama 76% (D+54)

NEVADA 2012 (poll, not official)
Popular Vote: ?
Hispanic (?): Romney 20% Obama 69% (D+49 — a shift of R+5)

VIRGINIA 2008
Popular Vote: o John McCain 46.33% ✓ Barack Obama 52.63% (D+6.30; Pickup!)
Hispanic (5): McCain 34% Obama 65% (D+31)

VIRGINIA 2012 (poll, not official)
Popular Vote: ?
Hispanic (?): Romney 28% Obama 59% (D+31 — a statistical status quo)


Obama is pretty much status quo with Hispanics in Florida and Virginia. The margin in Nevada doesn't tell enough, versus 2008, when Romney's percentage underperforms McCain's. (What if it's 20% for Romney vs 79% for Obama in Nevada? That would be D+59, a shift of D+5.) Colorado is solidified. And the Republicans have pissed on themselves with Hispanics in Arizona. If these were to be the numbers on Nov. 6, I'd say that Arizona flips from red to blue; Colorado, which I suspect is a new bellwether state, carries (as I believe it will be voting with the winner for a while); Florida, Nevada, and Virginia should carry. (Va. is in the same boat as Colo. for presidential elections; their spreads, for margins, have been close.)

[mikekohr]

5. Si Se Puede!

and yes we will.

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. Let's hope Hispanics haven't been intimidated into not participating. I love these numbers.

[Iliyah]

8. 37% in Florida

does that include the Cubans? Or are they a separate Latino(a) entity?

[Rosanna Lopez]

10. Cubans in Florida

I would assume that the Latino number for Florida includes the Cubans. That probably explains why Florida is Romney's highest number compared to the Latino number in the other states above. Many Cubans in Florida are Republican, and that's why Obama doesn't have the lead there that he does in other states.

I'm not really that acquainted with the Cuban community in Florida since I'm a Latino Californian. I know more about the Latino communities in California, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, New York etc. than I do about Florida. The Republican obsession with Fidel Castro is one of the reasons their support among Cubans has remained so high, but I did recently read an article that the younger generation of Cubans are becoming less fixated on Castro, the Bay of Pigs, all the problems going back to the 60's etc. and are becoming more Independent and less Republican, so perhaps there will be changes in the years ahead post-Castro.

[calimary]

12. Welcome to DU, Rosanna!

Glad you're here! This Anglo Californian thanks you for that perspective.

I'm just glad they understand who's got their back and who doesn't. At least I HOPE they do!

But I remain worried about how effectively all those negative ads can sway people. Especially people who aren't paying much attention and don't think it makes any difference. "Oh they're ALL ALIKE..."

But I'm glad to see this. It will be a cause for many sleepless nights among the bad guys, I hope.

[Arkana]

13. That generally happens when one party treats Hispanics like scum.