Poll: Clinton lead continues to shrink as Sanders surges !

[ram2008]

"Hillary Clinton is still leading the Democratic field for 2016, but her lead has shrunk in recent months, according to a new Monmouth University poll out Wednesday, as independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to make steady gains despite trailing by a wide margin.

Among Democrats and those leaning toward the Democratic Party, Clinton picked up the support of 51 percent, down from 57 percent in June and 60 percent in April.

Sanders came in second with 17 percent, followed by former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb with 1 percent each. Lincoln Chafee, the former governor and senator from Rhode Island, registered no support.

If Vice President Joe Biden were to run, however, the results suggest that he would take some votes away from Clinton. He has not announced his intentions, but registered voters in the sample backed him with 13 percent, just behind Sanders."


Article: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-hillary-clinton-lead-shrinking-democrats-120140.html#ixzz3fyDvlsoi

Full poll: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/947b4d56-8c7b-4dd4-a2e3-d36b1c78d231.pdf

Not the best poll as we can't see the internals and for some reason the organizations still seem to be including Biden who is not even running. I would like to see a head to head of Sanders v Clinton instead. Regardless, compared to the last poll Bernie went up 5 points and Clinton lost 6 points. In addition Clinton's net favorability dropped 11 points while Bernie's went up 13 points. If the trend holds for one more month, we will be close to where Obama was at that point in time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Is this what you are looking for?

I would like to see a head to head of Sanders v Clinton instead.

[shenmue]

2. Poll: Clinton is still in the lead

[ram2008]

4. Just as she was in 08

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

65. hahaha! Good one ram...as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. Hard to believe, with the hundreds of consultants she has advising her, she's still a lame campaigner.

Last edited Wed Jul 15, 2015, 01:52 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary would do better in the polls if she stayed out of the media and said absolutely nuthin. The more triangulated non-position positions she takes, the worse she looks. Yet, she touts herself as a leader who wants to be a "champion" for the people.
Everyone knows Bernie is the True Champion, the Real Deal, Mr. Authentic...need I go on?
Go Bernie Go!!!

[Exultant Democracy]

83. She hires cronies too often for important jobs. Her 2008 field team is the worst in history

Every model they built predicted Clinton winning 100% of all the caucus state delegates, which is just about the dumbest thing I have every heard of.

If anyone in Clinton's leadership had done any due diligence they would have caught that error, it isn't like that hadn't run a national election before. However they didn't notice the error and by the time they did it was too late to play catch up. Clinton had the resources to win in a walk, if they hadn't been so grossly mismanaged. I don't understand why anyone would want to give her the keys to the white house after that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

88. I don't understand it either. Won't matter though, as it looks like history is gonna repeat itself.

[Buns_of_Fire]

92. A good part of the problem may well BE her consultants and advisers.

I'm a lot more interested in what SHE thinks than I am in what John Podesta thinks.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

106. Unfortunately, we'll never know; Hillary's personal views are apparently a carefully guarded secret. Ask Bernie ANYTHING, he'll give you a straight and honest answer.

[peacebird]

127. ^^^^THIS!^^^^

[George II]

84. She was never up by > 40% in 2008, and she was overcome by a fellow Democrat.

[cascadiance]

105. But Bernie is more like traditional Democrats than either Clinton or Obama have been...

... in him more working for the middle class than they are.

[George II]

122. Everybody talks about "traditional Democrats" - what exactly in your mind is...

...a "traditional Democrat"?

[cascadiance]

125. Traditional Democrats like this one spoke against fascists instead of embracing them...

[Cha]

120. She was overcome by then Senator Obama.. who went on to Win 2 terms.. and the Dem Nom will

be wanting him to campaign with them and for them.

Here's to it being Hillary!

[cascadiance]

126. It will be interesting to see how you feel when Transcanada sues us over Keystone Oil veto...

after being enabled to do so by TPP that Obama has fought so much more to get passed than any other bill of his administration.

How will you feel then if we let them take billions out of our government, or if it forces us to go ahead and put Keystone in place to avoid that bill? All brought to you by Mr. Obama!

[truebrit71]

129. LOL!!!

I like it!

[MoonRiver]

6. Yes, by 35 points.

But I guess it's time to push the panic button.

[frylock]

28. that train has sailed

[FlatBaroque]

33. Stay the course, PLEASE!

Do not change a thing. Do not hit the panic button. Do exactly as you are.

[onehandle]

3. That's one poll and the average poll 8 years ago next month had Obama and Hillary separated by 12 points.

Not a chance that much of a change happening that fast.

Maybe if we extend the primary to 2018.

[ram2008]

7. Simple math, if the trend holds it will be October

If the trend holds and she loses 5 points a month and Bernie gains 6 per month then:

August: 46% - 23% Bernie

September: 41% - 29% Bernie

October: 36% - 34% Bernie

So by October you'd have a national tie, with Bernie probably ahead in Iowa and NH. This is ignoring the fact that Biden may jump in which will definitely throw a monkey wrench into the whole process.

[onehandle]

9. LOL! There is no Obama. Even he didn't see a trend like that.

Also, if Biden jumped in, the race would be between him and Hillary.

You better hope he doesn't jump in.

[ram2008]

12. Can't really compare two races

Social media is much larger than it was in 08 (the iPhone had only been out for 1 year in 08)...Sanders is pulling in crowds by the thousands, and his message is spreading like wildfire.

Clinton is much less palpable to the general electorate and to primary voters than she was in 08, especially with income inequality as the central theme of the campaign.

I don't mind if Biden jumps in, I can see myself supporting him, but we will see. Regardless, I don't see how anyone spins these numbers for Clinton as a good thing. It shows us that we do indeed have a competitive primary and Clinton is no longer the inevitable nominee.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. "Clinton is much less palpable to the general electorate."

"Clinton is much less palpable to the general electorate."

I believe the word, palatable, is what you are looking for. In any case she looks palatable to a plurality or majority of voters, ergo:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[hootinholler]

46. IDK seems like her supporters think can't touch her

Hammer Time!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. MC Hammer was to rap what the Monkees were to rock.

eom

[Sheepshank]

50. *zing*

That was pretty clever

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. M C Hammer is dope said no urban youth ever

BTW, do you think that's why some people have no idea what folks who are different than themselves think about anything.

[1monster]

97. The Monkees were terrific. They were funny, clean, cute, and sang well together.

No, they were not acid, psychedelic, metal, or innovators, but their songs were catchy, well arranged and pleasing. The television show as good comedic entertainment

I generally find those who sneer at one set of musicians as opposed to another are not musicians themselves... (And Mike Nesmith was a serious musician BEFORE the advent of the Monkees and the other three became musicians as a result of their involvement with that group.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

98. Same as MC Hammer

but their songs were catchy, well arranged and pleasing.

Same as MC Hammer


Yes, this is all subjective but I don't think MC Hammer has or had much street cred despite his songs being " catchy,well arranged and pleasing" and I suspect The Monkees had the same burden. I wouldn't put the former in the same category as NWA, Public Enemy, and Kanye West and I wouldn't put the latter in the same category as the Beatles, the Stones, and the Who.

[1monster]

107. Well, to be honest, I don't put rap in the same category as music... chanting, performing, reciting

... even art, but not music.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

108. It's the beat of the inner city and those in the suburbs who want to live their lives vicariously.

eom

[1monster]

109. I didn't say I don't like some rap... I do. But I don't consider most of it music.

This one is between and betwixt the two...

but I'm more into Reggae

[DemocratSinceBirth]

111. I love all genres except classical, it's the plebeian in me...

eom

[1monster]

112. Well, there's classical and then there's classical.

Just like all genre's of music, there is wide variation in classical. Some is incredibly beautiful and sublime; some just doesn't do it for me.

But I believe that the way it is presented to us make a big difference in whether or not we like it...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Also, if Biden jumped in, the race would be between him and Hillary.

Also, if Biden jumped in, the race would be between him and Hillary.

All the available evidence suggests the lion's share of JB's support is coming out of HRC's hide:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls


HRC's lead increases substantially when JB isn't included

And from the Monmouth Poll



Vice President Joe Biden has not announced his intentions for 2016, but recent media reports
suggest he is leaning towards a run. He currently earns 13% support in the poll, similar to prior results.
However, the Monmouth poll finds his support should grow if he chooses to enter the fray. An additional
12% of Democratic voters say they would be very likely to support Biden if he gets into the race and
another 31% say they would be somewhat likely. Taken together with the support he currently holds in
the vote choice question, about 1-in-4 voters say they would be very likely to get behind Biden, and more
than half would be at least somewhat likely.
Most of this new support would come at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Among those who say
they would be likely to vote for Biden if he runs, 68% are currently Clinton backers, 18% are currently
supporting another candidate and 14% are undecided.

(The Money Shot)

“Most people seem to be focusing on a Sanders surge among the liberal wing of the party. But
the bigger threat to Clinton may come from a Biden candidacy, where the two would be fighting for the
same voters,”



http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/947b4d56-8c7b-4dd4-a2e3-d36b1c78d231.pdf

[Scootaloo]

59. Funny, 'cause in 2008, clinton supporters insisted obama was a nobody too

Among other, much nastier insinuations against him.

[rock]

35. So at that rate

When will Bernie have 100% of the votes?

[ram2008]

36. Probably around the same time Clinton conceded to Obama in 08 nt

[rock]

38. Well, that's then I'll vote for Bernie!

[onehandle]

62. 2018. nt

[rock]

87. Well then, THAT'S when I'll vote for Bernie!

Thanks.

[Recursion]

72. Yeah...

[ram2008]

73. Well the trend has been holding

Until it stops, I'm free to extrapolate .

[samsingh]

75. and another 9 months after that, Bernie will be at 110 and Hillary will be -20

simple extrapolation.

Hillary should be worried.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. There is such a thing is reversion to the mean or water rising to its level...

The problem is we have no firm mean in which to compare but that's not license to extrapolate into infinity.

[George II]

85. Don't count on it - these things are never linear.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. On this very date in 07 BHO was down by a mere 9%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls


At the end of the 08 primary BHO and HRC had garnered nearly the same amount of primary votes. Since we are playing with math...If BS makes the same progress as BHO did he will still end the 016 primary season twenty five points behind.

[ram2008]

16. And down by 30 two months before the Iowa Caucus (November 07)

Overall, 48% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationwide support Senator Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Her closest primary opponent is Senator Barack Obama who receives 17% followed by John Edwards with 10%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Marist071106.pdf

Wow that looks familiar.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. How did we get from July to November?

On July 15, 2007 the results were


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls


HRC-34%
BHO-25%

[ram2008]

24. Because you are trying to imply the gap is insurmountable

Yet Obama had the very same gap just two months before the caucus and ended up winning by almost 10 points.. And the demographics in Iowa are actually more favorable to Bernie than they were to Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. What did Obama win by ten points?

Actually he lost the primary pop vote but won the nomination because he did better in the caucuses.

And at this point in O8 primary cycle HRC was actually trailing in the IA caucus, ergo:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls


while she is ahead by 34 points in this cycle:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls

[ram2008]

34. Iowa and the Delegate count

And he won the popular vote, unless you're counting Michigan where he wasn't even on the ballot. Popular vote doesn't count for anything in the primaries anyway, it's the delegate count.

Iowa results were: 37.6% Obama, 29.5% Clinton

Delegate results were: 2229 Obama, 1896 Clinton, or translated to percentages roughly 54-45%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Precisely

Obama won "Iowa and the Delegate count,"

HRC was trailing Obama and Edwards at this time in the 08 cycle in Iowa:




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls


while she is ahead by 34 points in this cycle:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls


She was the underdog in Iowa and lost. Now she is the prohibitive favorite.

[ram2008]

43. She was ahead of Obama at this time in Iowa. Look at the RCP graph

25%Edwards, 24% Clinton, 17% Obama. I'm not sure why you keep trying to compare the two races though. Every race has different dynamics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. You are the one who is using Obama as a proxy

And even in your example

She was ahead of Obama at this time in Iowa. 25%Edwards, 24% Clinton, 17% Obama. I'm not sure why you keep trying to compare the two races though. Every race has different dynamic

She was in second place and seven points ahead of Obama. She's now ahead by thirty four ? points.

[ram2008]

48. What is your point nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. My point is she ahead nationally and in Iowa

My point is she ahead nationally and in Iowa, much further ahead nationally and in Iowa than she was at this point in the 08 cycle, and if you disbelieve that there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[ram2008]

61. I'm saying that it doesn't matter

She was 20-25 points (avg) ahead in the national polling b/w July and Jan and still lost to Obama.

This time around her campaign is being run even worse than last time, her press is negative, and there is an even bigger desire for change than last time.

We will have to see what the next round of polling says in Iowa and NH. Even if Bernie doesn't end up winning, all he needs to do is shatter her inevitability (which he pretty much has) and show that he's coming close or has the potential of beating her. He will probably win NH, if he wins Iowa before that, that WILL make lots of people nervous and you could see someone like Warren enter the race as a unity candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. "She was 20-25 points (avg) ahead in the national polling b/w July and Jan and still lost to Obama"

"She was 20-25 points (avg) ahead in the national polling b/w July and Jan and still lost to Obama"

No, she wasn't:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls


I will let the readers decide whom to believe; you or their lying eyes

Even if Bernie doesn't end up winning, all he needs to do is shatter her inevitability (which he pretty much has)

That's your opinion which isn't shared by any dispassionate observers. Please cite them if they exist.

[ram2008]

68. Yes, she was

Do you need pictures? I suppose 15-25 would be more accurate.

The biggest hint of her not being inevitable, is Biden still not being able to decide whether he wants to enter the race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. "Do you need pictures? I suppose 15-25 would be more accurate."

"Do you need pictures? I suppose 15-25 would be more accurate."

I'm not Descartes but 15% is 40% less than 25% and you said we shouldn't compare the 08 and 016 primaries:

Can't really compare two races

Social media is much larger than it was in 08 (the iPhone had only been out for 1 year in 08)...Sanders is pulling in crowds by the thousands, and his message is spreading like wildfire.

Clinton is much less palpable to the general electorate and to primary voters than she was in 08, especially with income inequality as the central theme of the campaign.

I don't mind if Biden jumps in, I can see myself supporting him, but we will see. Regardless, I don't see how anyone spins these numbers for Clinton as a good thing. It shows us that we do indeed have a competitive primary and Clinton is no longer the inevitable nominee.

-ram2008

[ram2008]

71. We shouldn't

I was simply pointing out that yes, Obama was 15-25 points nationally behind against Clinton in 07, when you said it was untrue. As the picture illustrated, I wasn't lying as you implied.



Your idea of "much farther" ahead nationally now compared to 08, is a difference of about 10 percentage points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. Can we split the difference at 20 points.

She's 38 points ahead according to Huffington Post's poll of polls now:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


But, again, you said we can't compare the two primary seasons

[ram2008]

76. Sure why not

Give it about a month and I'm sure it will be a 20 point race. 48 Clinton-28 Sanders sounds about right by mid August. (Assuming Biden doesn't jump in).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

79. You're too pessimistic.

eom

[brooklynite]

124. Here's the problem with the 2008 Chart...

...Hillary's ceiling was 40%, allowing Obama to take a lead.

Today, she's higher than that (high 50s):

[George II]

86. But back then there were eight potential nominees with measurable support...

...this year there are only two, maybe three depending upon O'Malley's support.

[corkhead]

57. there had been a couple of debates by then

that was when she lost a lot of ground

[kenfrequed]

55. True

But by this point President Obama had a few debates with Hillary that allowed his name to get out more on a national level. This time around the debates are starting a bit later than in 2008. Also there are going to be fewer of them.

[JaneyVee]

5. Wait, Bernie had 24% in the last poll, now he has 17%?

[ram2008]

8. He had 12% in Monmouths last poll last month, 17% now n/t

[JaneyVee]

10. Most polls show Bernie in the 20s, this seems low.

[Adrahil]

14. No they don't.

The YouGov poll is the only national poll showing Bernie in the 20's. The rest have him in the teens. Some early state polls have him in the 20's or 30's.

YouGov is a mediocre pollster, and Monmouth is typically pretty good. It looks like the YouGov poll is an outlier for now, but i would not be surpirsed at this point if Bernie's suppor pops up into the the 20's over the next month or so. I think he tops out around 30% nationally, unless Clinton blows it by being too reserved, or giving a bad debate performance.

[JaneyVee]

20. Thanks for the info. Yes, I was confusing some caucus polls with...

National polls.

[Adrahil]

21. Cheers! nt

[artislife]

11. What will be interesting to watch

Is not the trade of likely voters but the surge in voters who have fallen away and are now coming back. I don't think they even get into the polls. This should be an interesting election.



Which has me engaged. I wasn't before on the national level. Just locally

[Le Taz Hot]

15. This poll will be one of several upcoming polls

to reflect Sanders' rise and Clinton's decline. Sanders has nowhere to go but up and Clinton has nowhere to go but down. This has been an absolute incredible primary season so far and it's just beginning. I'm hangin' on for the ride and enjoying every minute of it!

[Adrahil]

19. How would this thread go if the title was instead...

Clinton still choice of Democrats by a three to one margin, despite Sanders "surge"

Rhetoric is a very interesting thing!

[Metric System]

23. I know, right?

[cherokeeprogressive]

25. Depends on whether or not the word "trending" is included.

[Adrahil]

30. The term "surge"implies a trend, I think...

But my point was more about the titles of these threads are full of spin. Sanders's surge doesn't sound so impressive when you realize Clinton still has a 3 to 1 lead.

I'm not saying the Bernie surge isn't real.... It is. It's just that nationally, he's still WAY behind. He is, however, Clinton's only real rival atm. Biden hasn't declared, and the others who have are barely registering.

[Surya Gayatri]

27. ...

[MoonRiver]

29. Probably get locked, lol!

"disruptive meta"

[Scootaloo]

81. No it wouldn't.

And cut it out with this "poor oppressed hillary supporters" meme. You're not exactly righteous victims facing persecution and tyranny. Especially silly, when your candidate is in the lead. You can't act like you're the downtrodden masses when you're at the top. C'mon.

[Le Taz Hot]

45. Throw all the spin on it you want.

This is a tidal wave that the corporatists are still denying even exists. Coming to a town or city near you.

[Adrahil]

53. Perhaps, but that wasn't really my point.

It is TRUE that the numbers are trending in Bernie's favor. It is also TRUE, that Clinton still has a 3 to 1 lead..... A daunting prospect no matter how you slice it. My point was that the same information can be spun different ways. This thread title spun it one way... The way most favorable to Sanders.

It remains to be seen in Sanders is a "tidal wave" or not. I don't think so, but we'll know better in 4-5 months.

[HassleCat]

32. This is why we have primaries and caucuses

"The gap is insurmountable!" "No, it's not!"

This is why we have primaries, to see if a dark horse, or a hometown favorite, or an unknown, or... anybody, really, can rise up and challenge the front runner. It's rare that such a thing happens, but it does happen. When the polling gap narrows, it indicates... um... something. I hope it shows Sanders can hang in there and mount a real challenge to Clinton. I want it to be time for American voters to figure out progressives will do more for them than liberals. Maybe that time is now.

[artislife]

101. i can't wait to caucus, there is where H lost. nt

[DanTex]

37. Surges! From 24% in the most recent poll all the way up to 17% in this one!

[ram2008]

41. 12% in the last one, to 17%

When comparing polls directly you go by organization, when looking at them as a whole you go by the trend.

Bernie has went up 5% each time this organization released a poll, Clinton down each time.

[Adrahil]

54. The 24% was most likely an outlier.

I think 17% is probably more accurate. I've rpedicted that Bernie's national,support will top out between 20-30%. We'll see.

[kenfrequed]

58. As was already mentioned

These are different polling outfits with different questioning systems, criteria, and weighting.

But yeah, thanks for playing.

[AgingAmerican]

40. Hillary supporters are moving to Sanders camp

But not visa versa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. According to the poll the original poster cited

Vice President Joe Biden has not announced his intentions for 2016, but recent media reports
suggest he is leaning towards a run. He currently earns 13% support in the poll, similar to prior results.
However, the Monmouth poll finds his support should grow if he chooses to enter the fray. An additional
12% of Democratic voters say they would be very likely to support Biden if he gets into the race and
another 31% say they would be somewhat likely. Taken together with the support he currently holds in
the vote choice question, about 1-in-4 voters say they would be very likely to get behind Biden, and more
than half would be at least somewhat likely.
Most of this new support would come at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Among those who say
they would be likely to vote for Biden if he runs, 68% are currently Clinton backers, 18% are currently
supporting another candidate and 14% are undecided.

(The Money Shot)*

“Most people seem to be focusing on a Sanders surge among the liberal wing of the party. But
the bigger threat to Clinton may come from a Biden candidacy, where the two would be fighting for the
same voters,”



http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/947b4d56-8c7b-4dd4-a2e3-d36b1c78d231.pdf


*My terminology

[AgingAmerican]

60. We see many Hillary supporters now in Bernies camp

But not visa versa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. Who is we, Aging American?

eom

[AgingAmerican]

89. Americans

Lemme guess: It depends what the meaning of 'we' is? Right? lol

[DemocratSinceBirth]

91. I am just a plebeian and not a member of the "royal" we, hence the reason for my confusion./nt

[AgingAmerican]

94. We = human race

Hope that clears it up for ya!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

95. You speak for the human race, that seems royal to this plebeian.

eom

[AgingAmerican]

100. Then refute what I said

...rather than trying to get mired down in what the meaning of 'we' is.

I will repeat: Many Hillary supporters are switching to Bernie, but not visa-versa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

102. She is leading Sanders 3-1 in the Monmouth Poll 51-17

I see nothing in that poll or other polls that indicate HRC supporters are going to BS.

Perhaps you can point me to to them.

[AgingAmerican]

103. ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

104. ...

[Adrahil]

56. Pretty much expected, I'd think...

Based on recognition alone. People pretty know what Clinton supports, and Bernie's populist message will appeal to many. But will it be enough? I know my wife (and I for that matter) love his policies (for me, mostly.... He's a bit too much of an Israel supporter for my tastes), but our head tells us he's less likely to win the generals.

[kenfrequed]

52. It is good news

I think that might be an overly optimistic read on the poll but I think there is cause for enthusiasm and for Sanders supporters to redouble their efforts at getting the word out.

[jalan48]

63. What's Clinton's strategy for getting the Progressive vote once she gets the nomination?

[Maedhros]

90. Frighten them into voting for her with the spectre of how horrible the Republicans are.

Make some vague gestures leftward, then backtrack completely after inauguration.

[jalan48]

99. I think we Progressives are being played by the system yet again.

Obama's marketing scheme made us think he was one of us so we got real excited to support him. He managed to keep us at arms length the first couple of years in office when he had a majority in both houses, by telling us he was all about 'consensus' with the Republicans. Like dutiful children we hung in there with him through the second term, and for most of us it really wasn't until the TPP issue that we realized he wasn't one of us. Now Hillary can't play the same game because we are on to the 'Corporate' Democrats'. You are right, we will be told she may not be perfect but the other side is terrible-oh the horrors!-and if we don't support her it will be the end. The reality is that many Progressives won't vote for her and that is something the Hillary crowd doesn't get. They just assume we will because the other side is so bad. It's sad but that may be what it takes to shake the corporate folks up. Then again, they may not care all that much, they win regardless of who the victorious candidate is. George Carlin had it right a long time ago.

[Exilednight]

118. And that's the one method that will force me to sit out the GE if she is nominated.

I'm sorry, but I'm a Democrat and I don't scare that easy. As FDR said, the only thing to fear is fear itself; and I will not have my vote held hostage to fear.

[Maedhros]

128. That tactic is a bit played out.

I'm almost convinced that the DNC has operatives on all the left-leaning forums that work very hard to keep us all quaking in our boots at the thought of Republican victories, in service of coercing our votes for lackluster right-leaning Democrats.

Hey DNC: don't peddle fear! Give me candidates that inspire me to vote for them, and I will.

[Gamecock Lefty]

66. She Doesn't Need a Strategy!

Hillary is a Progressive. She may not be as liberal as BS, but she's still a liberal.

[DCBob]

67. surges?? Hillary's numbers are 3X Bernie's.

Bernie has moved up a bit but its a blowout.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

116. She started with a home run; in only a couple of months, she's walked back to third base.

Give her two to three more months and they'll both have doubles.

[Adrahil]

123. Possible, of course, but I don't think a deep dive supports that.

The fact is, she has a 3 to 1 advantage over Bernie. That is simply a HUGE advantage to overcome. Not impossible, but huge. Most of the first choice/second choice data seems to favor Clinton. The debates, could perhaps make a diffeence.

[daybranch]

77. We will do better than the Obama campaign.

Obama gave us hope. Bernie gives us realistic direction in tune with the Progressive nature of our electorate. Obama was an inexperienced but well meaning individual who expressed many ideas we agreed with. But he was not bold. Bernie is and has been. His authenticity is evidenced by his performance. He unites us more solidly than Obama who became a symbol of possibility of change and was embraced as such. Bernie unites us through commitment to common views that Obama never felt comfortable fully supporting. In the old days, when people had more control of their government, Obama would have been called a Rockefeller Republican. Bernie is a Franklin Roosevelt republican, much more willing to take on the greed of billionaires, corporatists, and big banks who have stranglehold on government. Hillary gives no indication that she has stomach for that fight and no amount of claiming to be a Progressive will deflect the gaze of the people from her donors. We got Obama as the lessor evil and now we are ready for a candidate who expresses and supports the will and welfare of the people. Bernie is that candidate.

[Lisa D]

93. Obama was not the "lesser evil"

And those running for the nomination will need the Obama coalition to win it.

[DCBob]

80. Bernie unfav/fav ratio is quite a bit higher than Hillary's.

Bernie Sanders -- 36% (fav) 12% (unfav)   12/36 = .33 unfav/fav ratio
Hillary Clinton  -- 74% (fav) 17% (unfav)   17/74 = .22 unfav/fav ratio

This suggests that once people get to know Bernie, a large percent don't like him. Does not portend well for Bernie down the road.

[BrotherIvan]

119. So you missed the part where 48% don't have an opinion yet?

[AzDar]

82. The country is just BEGINNING to Feel The Bern!

Bernie!!:

[LWolf]

96. We'll be working to

make sure this trend continues.

[LWolf]

110. K & R

[LWolf]

113. K & R

[wyldwolf]

114. thread title could be: Sanders drops back below 20%

[LWolf]

115. K & R

[WillyT]

117. K & R !!!

[riversedge]

121. 4 polls -A Good Polling Day For Hillary (With More on the Way?)

The Monmouth poll is the one in the OP.
X_posted




Tweet:
A Good Polling Day For Hillary (With More on the Way?) http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/07/15/1402624/-A-Good-Polling-Day-For-Hillary-With-More-on-the-Way … @HillaryClinton #p2 #uniteblue


Wed Jul 15, 2015 at 03:47 PM PDT


A Good Polling Day For Hillary (With More on the Way?)



Four different polls have arrived today and all of them have good news for Hillary Clinton.

First, there's the new ABC News/Washington Post poll which shows Hillary clearly rebounding in public opinion. In fact, she's the only one in positive territory among these four candidates:



..................

PPP's new poll of Nevada has more bad news for the Republicans...she's beating them all in that crucial state by 5-12 points..................


PPP is also hinting at some excellent Virginia numbers for Hillary in a poll that's due tomorrow (Thrus, July 16).

Finally, a couple of national Democratic primary numbers from Monmouth and Suffolk:



Hillary does a little worse in one of these polls while still leading very comfortably in both. So obviously, guess which one Politico took special note of with the clickbait headline of "Poll: Hillary Clinton's lead shrinks among Democrats"?..............