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Mon Oct 6, 2014, 03:10 AM

Fingers Crossed for Amanda ...

Can This 35-Year-Old Math Teacher Become the Youngest Member of the Senate?
...
If Curtis wins her election, she's already destined to stand out from the rest of the senators on the Hill and not just because she would be the first one sporting a nose ring. Curtis would be the youngest senator, having only turned 35 in September. And in a Senate that is 80 percent male, has an average age of 62, and is predominately filled by millionaires, Curtis would bring a vastly different set of experiences to the Capitol.

According to Curtis, that's exactly what makes her the right candidate for the job. "We all need to remember that Washington, D.C. is full of folks that have done incredibly well for themselves and when you send folks to Washington, D.C. who have done incredibly well for themselves, they take votes that tilt the playing field to the wealthy and against us regular working folk," she told the Montana Standard shortly after her nomination.

It's these same traits youth, a more mainstream economic background, and an ability to identify with working-class voters that make her a formidable challenger, even with just two-and-a-half months to campaign. (Daines will have spent a full year running for the office.)

It would be difficult to find two candidates more different than Curtis and Daines. She teaches math and has $23,500 in a retirement account as her sole financial asset. He's a former businessman whose tech startup was sold to Oracle and who has a net worth of between $8.9 million and $32.7 million. She supports abortion rights. He believes abortion should always be illegal, even if the pregnancy was a result of a sexual assault, and he cosponsored the "Life at Conception Act," which defines life as beginning at fertilization and will not only end abortion but many believe could make most forms of birth control illegal.
...

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/news/a31728/amanda-curtis-montana-senate/

Of course, I'm not only crossing my fingers. I've contributed to her campaign, written to Montana family/friends to urge their support and will participate in telephone calls. The only thing that I can't do is vote in MT because my voting residence is in another state.

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Fingers Crossed for Amanda ... (Original post)
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 OP
brooklynite Oct 2014 #1
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 #4
GGJohn Oct 2014 #2
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 #3
GGJohn Oct 2014 #5
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 #6
GGJohn Oct 2014 #7
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 #8
BlueMTexpat Oct 2014 #9
MBS Oct 2014 #10
GGJohn Oct 2014 #11

Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 06:46 AM

1. not a prayer...

I'm sure she's well meaning, but she got in too late in a race that was already at risk when Walsh dropped out.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 09:39 AM

4. Walsh was the "safe" establishment choice

that turned out not to be.

Montanans can do some surprising things and there are some interesting coalitions, especially considering that Daines favors selling off Montana wilderness resources, among his many other faults.

It just might happen that the conventional "wisdom" isn't. I personally am not giving up hope.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 08:54 AM

2. Latest polls have Daine up by 20 points, not much chance of her winning this one.

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Response to GGJohn (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 09:33 AM

3. Actually, her internal polling is showing

a 13-point difference recently and gaining momentum. But yes, it's still a long shot.

It may be quixotic of me, but I am still going to do everything I can to try to make a difference.

Daines is frankly terrible - a TP'er through and through.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 10:18 AM

5. Internal polling means nothing.

It's basically used to uplift the campaign employees.
Agree on Daines, but this is MT.
I wish you all the luck on getting Amanda elected, she would make a great Senator.

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Response to GGJohn (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 02:15 PM

6. Internal polling from a Dem candidate is every bit as credible

as anything from Fox News - which was one of the polls cited as proof of a 20-point spread.

Why are people on DU so dismissive about MT when it is likely many have never even been there - or have been there only on a pass-through basis? It is not the Deep South, by any means, nor are there nearly as many religious nutcases as live around me in MD (a "blue" state!) when I'm there. Yes, it has a tendency to vote GOP, but that is because Montanans remember formerly decent Republicans.

In my experience, people in my home state really don't focus on the candidates until the last couple weeks before an election. Many are focused on getting harvests in, seeding winter wheat and other crops, getting forage ready for the winter months, etc. They are very hard-working. Somewhat surprisingly, many know more about the world outside the US than some of the more parochial communities on the East Coast, in part because their immigrant roots are often more recent and also because they know/are related to a lot of us who travel a lot and share our experiences with family and friends. Just sayin' ...

Cowardly Daines pulled out of an Oct 4 debate and then "rescheduled" for 20 October. If he actually shows up, the debate could be a real game-changer for Amanda because all Daines has are GOPer talking points. Amanda can actually speak without a script. And she is as spunky as all get-out, which tends to impress all Montanans, male and female.

If Daines doesn't show up, that could also be a game-changer. In the meantime, Amanda - who wasn't previously known at all statewide - is getting acquainted with people all around the state and is being well-received.

There will be enough time to rain on my parade if she does lose. Why are people so negative now?

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 6, 2014, 02:53 PM

7. That poll you dismiss?

It's an ABC/FoxMT poll and I also post a link for the RCP poll, which is just about a mirror image of the other poll.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade, I'm being a realist, with less than a month to go, she has little to no chance of winning this race.

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Response to GGJohn (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 02:55 AM

8. While you may be correct about

the ultimate outcome, the full story is not out there yet.

I also see growing momentum based on what Montanans I know very well are saying and doing. Whether it will be enough is hard to say.

The only poll analyst that I believe in at all anymore is Sam Wang at the Princeton Education Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/) While he doesn't have much to go on yet in the MT Senate race because the polls you cite are the only external ones that are available, he sees beyond mere numbers and has a better track record of predictions than Nate Silver does. I will be very interested to see what Sam has to say after the 20 October Senate debate in MT.

We'll see on 5 November. Let's also both hope than I am right because if I am, it will be a win-win situation for us both.

If I'm not, it will be sad for us all and a real tragedy for Montanans.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 03:06 AM

9. Had to follow this up.

I had a typo in Sam's site name. It's Princeton Election Forum.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 05:41 AM

10. Thanks for this info and also your attitude

"the full story is not out there yet" . . "We'll see on 5 November" should be mottoes for this entire upcoming election.
I really hope that you turn out to be right.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 08:57 AM

11. If MT elects her as their Senator, that would be HUGE

and I'm pulling for it.

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