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hedgehog

(36,286 posts)
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:02 PM Aug 2014

Oopsie - a little stumble on the way to the coronation:

"Even with Hillary Clinton in the race, 2016 is basically a toss-up

A new poll from McClatchy and Marist College documents that decline pretty well. In hypothetical matchups with potential 2016 Republican candidates, Clinton has seen her lead decline from 20-plus points in February to the mid-single digits today. She leads Chris Christie by six points after leading him by 21 points six months ago. She leads Jeb Bush 48-41 after leading him by 20 in February. She leads Rand Paul 48-42 after leading him by the same margin early this year."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/14/even-with-hillary-clinton-in-the-race-2016-is-basically-a-toss-up/?wpisrc=nl_pmpol&wpmm=1

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Oopsie - a little stumble on the way to the coronation: (Original Post) hedgehog Aug 2014 OP
She should stab Obama in the back some more. That should help people like her. TwilightGardener Aug 2014 #1
6 or 7 percentage points = many millions of votes lead onehandle Aug 2014 #2
Bad poll data -- it is very bad interpretation of all poll data tgards79 Aug 2014 #3
Warren, Biden, O'Malley, Jerry Brown please god somebody help MattP Aug 2014 #4
It was bound to happen Iamthetruth Aug 2014 #5
Not bad at all for someone who is not yet running rock Aug 2014 #6
No, I expect her to hold to past trendlines... Chan790 Aug 2014 #7
We shall see rock Aug 2014 #9
Clinton fatigue. blkmusclmachine Aug 2014 #8

TwilightGardener

(46,416 posts)
1. She should stab Obama in the back some more. That should help people like her.
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:08 PM
Aug 2014

Mostly Repubs who aren't going to vote for her, but whatevs.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
2. 6 or 7 percentage points = many millions of votes lead
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:15 PM
Aug 2014

Not pushing Hillary, but just sayin'.

Also, not a chance in Hell that Christie will be nominated.

Paul won't be accepted by fundies or the GOP establishment.

Jeb won't run.

Iamthetruth

(487 posts)
5. It was bound to happen
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:55 PM
Aug 2014

The closer we get the less lead she was going to have. She has been in public life for a long time, she has a history that will work for and against her.

rock

(13,218 posts)
6. Not bad at all for someone who is not yet running
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 04:29 PM
Aug 2014

Do you suppose when she starts campaigning she'll pick up some votes? (yes, rhetorical)

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
7. No, I expect her to hold to past trendlines...
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 05:58 PM
Aug 2014

as the consensus front-runner and lose somewhere in the vicinity of 3-5% as soon as she declares and another 2-3% before the first primary. Races narrow after declarations and before the primaries. She's almost certainly not going to pick up votes but lose them between now and New Hampshire.

So it may have been a rhetorical question...but it shouldn't have been because it's anything but the rhetorical answer.

rock

(13,218 posts)
9. We shall see
Thu Aug 14, 2014, 06:48 PM
Aug 2014

My prediction (and that's why the question was rhetorical as far as I was concerned) is a pick-up of 10-20% on the first poll after she declares (perhaps even greater). Of course, I have been wrong before. Whichever is right can revisit this point and give the other one a raspberry. OK?

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