Terrible news for Obamacare haters: The law is not going to collapse

[DonViejo]

Conservatives spin Obamacare numbers — but they’ve already lost. The sabotage campaign is now wholly gratuitous

BRIAN BEUTLER

After 2013 came to an end, and Obamacare enrollees became Obamacare beneficiaries, Republicans began pegging all of their hopes on the possibility that Obamacare’s botched rollout would ultimately prove unrecoverable. Repeal had just become synonymous with rescinding insurance benefits, so that option was at last really, truly out. Replace isn’t happening in today’s policy-phobic GOP. So the right’s last best hope is that the law will collapse on its own, or perhaps with the help of an ongoing campaign to discourage enrollment. Obamacare is designed to absorb certain shocks, but maybe the October and November blows will prove in hindsight to have been too devastating for the system to withstand.

New data from the Department of Health and Human Services, industry testimonials, and other recent developments suggest that wish, too, is dead, and that all of the right’s efforts to undermine the law are now wholly gratuitous. The Affordable Care Act isn’t going to collapse no matter what conservatives do.

You wouldn’t know that from listening to Republicans this week.

After establishing a new convention of Obamacare enrollment unskewing at the beginning of the year, and then retreating from Obamacare spin for a few days, Affordable Care Act opponents have returned with a vengeance to argue that new data from the Department of Health and Human Services is a harbinger of doom for the law.

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http://www.salon.com/2014/01/15/terrible_news_for_obamacare_haters_the_law_is_not_going_to_collapse/

[BlueStreak]

1. "the pools are probably already diverse enough"

FINALLY, somebody who actually understands the issue. I was getting pretty sick of all these media dimwits just blabbing away that the system will collapse if we don't get lots of 27-year-olds. That is complete rubbish.

The thing that would make the system collapse is if the only enrollees were people in dire, immediate need of very expensive medical care. And with 2.3M enrollees in new private plans, that is clearly not the case.

IT HAS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE AGE OF ENROLLEES. It has to do with the [font size="6"]HEALTH[/font] of enrollees. It is true that younger people tend to be healthier, but the insurance is already rated to take that factor into account. That is why a 28-year-old may pay 1/3 what a 60-year-old pays in premiums.

[COLGATE4]

2. You are absolutely right. Ed had Wendell

Potter (former Insurance Exec) on yesterday to explain that the apparent lower percentage of younger enrollees was already 'baked into' the numbers when planning ACA. It's no mystery to anyone why younger people with generally excellent health would be slower to enroll than those who already have some type of medical condition. Just more Republican throwing shit at the fan.

[BlueStreak]

3. Not just that. There are other reasons as well.

Older people are usually more mature. They have a better perspective on the importance of health care.

Older people understand mortality better. They understand they won't live forever, and they are more interested in doing things to extend their life.

Older people tend to have more financial means than your average 28-year-old and aren't as interested in spending all their income running around at bars, etc.

Older people tend to be in more stable circumstances, moving less often. Many young people are darting from one opportunity to another, and it is harder to focus on a vague concept like health care.

Bottom line, we need everyone to be covered eventually. That is the only way, short of single payer, to get control over this H.C. industry monster. But we really don't have to get all the younger ones this year. The law is designed to essentially give a lot of the younger generation a free pass the first year. If they aren't making a lot of money, their penalty is about $100 in 2014. But that goes up starting in 2015. And by 2016, almost all of them will be financially better off buying the insurance than paying the penalty, even if they never use a nickel's worth of the benefits.

Basically this problem takes care of itself. It just happens over a 5-year time scale.