2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs Karl Rove (and the Bush Establishment) cutting Mitt Romney loose?
You may have seen Karl Rove's latest electoral map. It is non partisan (and maybe even a little generous with South Carolina as a toss up) and pretty accurate.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/karl-roves-electoral-map-shows-obama-with-a-solid-lead-over-romney/
Obama starts with 220 solid (double digit or much much more) and Romney with 92. Leaning Obama 64 and Romney 79.
Basically Romney has to run the table with his leans and toss ups and has to turn atleast one Obama lean..
Obama takes his solids and leans and wins. if he wins AZ, FL or VA there is virtually no way for Romney to get close with all of the rest of the leans without turning a couple of leans from Obama to Romeny.
So what is the twice divorced college drop out Machievellian political hackmeister up to?
Some at DU have speculated that he is trying to scare Republicans to start donating real money.
If that was his agenda then he wouldn't have used this map, this one makes it look like a lost cause. This is the map you use if your trying to convince people not to waste good money after bad on Romney and spend the money on Senate and Congressional states/districts.
So here is an alternate theory. The Bush/Republican establishment are leaving Romney to his own devices. Team Romney isn't hiring a bunch of traditional Republican campaign staffers but his own gang. In the meantime Rove and the rest of them use their PAC funds to help Republicans run Congressional candidates in key Republican districts and States where the President is thought to have a possible impact.
Romney goes down to a historic landslide and cannot run again in 2016.
In the meantime the Bush machine has quietly been working hard to get people elected.
Over the next 4 years Obama is saddled with fixing the deficit, fixing the entitlement funding problems and getting the economy back on track. In 2016 the Jeb Bush comes back to reunite the Republican Party and they run on a whole list of social agenda items and cutting back the size of the government and reducing taxes.
With a whole fistful of IOUs in his pocket Jeb is able to lock up Iowa, NH and S. Carolina and a grateful party is reunited behind Jeb Bush and the Bushes finally get to run the 'smart son' who makes the Republicans giddy at the possibility that Jeb's Mexican born wife will be able to undo the damage of the Republican anti-Hispanic campaign.
So is Karl Rove trying to undermine support to Romney?
Don't know but this map sure isn't going to help Romney raise money?
Marie Marie
(9,999 posts)Doesn't matter whether he supports Romney or not. He will be throwing the millions he has raised against Obama.
DocMac
(1,628 posts)murielm99
(30,712 posts)They will throw all that money against Obama and suppress the vote wherever possible. This is no time for complacency. A Rmoney win is unthinkable!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)big a lead in the Senate as possible.
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Well spoken, brightly scrubbed smiling young people going door to door with bicycles... Instead of a white shirt, black tie, and name badge; they be dressed in business casual and a Romney button.
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Kablooie
(18,605 posts)But the real issue is the Congress.
If the GOOPS sweep the Congress we will have 4 more years of crap government and will probably lock in a Repubican president and possibly Congres for next time. They will certainly keep obstructing every thing they can.
I sure hope the Dems fight hard. When Obama had them last time he didn't know how to use them but I'm sure he learned his lesson and wouldn't make that mistake again.
K8-EEE
(15,667 posts)In other words, make it a little more pessemistic to cook up some future "poll shocker!" in R-money's favor...
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)remember the U.S. attorney scandal in 06?.. false flag to justify the all these new voter ID laws.. look at the outlier issues being pushed by the republicans for the next plank of their platform..lately the lapdogs have been exposed, (alec et el) but a lot of damage has been done since the election of 10.. it will take years to clean up the mess...
having said that it seems to me that Willard will shoot himself in the foot.. in fact is unelectable barring a Major attack or something of that nature..even with unlimited money for Willard, President Obama is a class act that the Republicans can't match..
I'm look for battles in both houses... if the republicans have both houses.. the post office ends up privatized... the supreme court ends up being 6-3 instead of 4-5.. Dod-Frank ends up being toothless..
if there is any good news for us it's that changing demographics favor us.. but this election is in fact ours to loose.. we need to elect good people all up and down the slate.. that includes dog catchers,d and school boards.
these guys play the long game.. after all they have been at it since Nixon's southern strategy.. 4 years mean nothing to them now.. especially when they are so close..