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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 03:46 PM

NJ Senate Projection: Booker 62.0%, Lonegan 36.4%

This projection is based on public polling. Only voters who have declared a preference for Booker, Lonegan, or 'Other' have been included in the calculation; undecided voters have been excluded. Polling in recent NJ Senate races (2006, 2008, and 2012) has suggested a tendency for the leading candidate to over-perform on Election Day; adjustments have been made based on this tendency.

Given that recent polling has shown a distinct tightening of the margin between Booker and Lonegan, the size of Booker's projected victory may seem unreasonably large. However, it is important to remember that Booker's polling remains strong, with his share of the three-way (Dem+Rep+Other) vote never falling below 55%. His 'ceiling' is an overwhelming 68% and his average is over 60%. Given his sizable money advantage over Lonegan and the unusual nature of this special election, 62% of the vote is not an unreasonable outcome.



The projection for this county map is based on election returns from three senatorial races (2006, 2008, and 2012), two gubernatorial races (2005 and 2009), and two presidential races (2008 and 2012). Lonegan is projected to win five counties while Booker is projected to win sixteen.

Swing Counties

If the outcome is more favorable to Lonegan, the following counties would be most likely to swing in his direction (current projection in parentheses):

Cape May (Booker 50.5% - Lonegan 47.9%)
Monmouth (Booker 50.5% - Lonegan 47.5%)
Somerset (Booker 52.8% - Lonegan 45.5%)

Thus, in Lonegan's best case scenario, he would win eight counties.

If the outcome is more favorable to Booker, the following counties would be most likely to swing in his direction (current projection in parentheses):

Morris (Lonegan 50.4% - Booker 48.8%)
Ocean (Lonegan 51.0% - Booker 47.2%)
Warren (Lonegan 52.7% - Booker 45.2%)
Sussex (Lonegan 52.8% - Booker 43.6%)
Hunterdon (Lonegan 55.3% - Booker 42.0%)

In Booker's best case scenario, he would win every county in the state.

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Reply NJ Senate Projection: Booker 62.0%, Lonegan 36.4% (Original post)
nyquil_man Oct 2013 OP
tabbycat31 Oct 2013 #1
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #2
tabbycat31 Oct 2013 #3
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #6
mgcgulfcoast Oct 2013 #4
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #5
davidpdx Oct 2013 #7
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #8
Dawson Leery Oct 2013 #9
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #10
Dawson Leery Oct 2013 #11
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #12
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Oct 2013 #13
tabbycat31 Oct 2013 #14

Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 04:53 PM

1. please let this be true

Steve Lonegan scares the living shit out of me and I would hate to have him as my senator (I mailed my ballot for Booker on Tuesday).

But I honestly don't see Booker winning Monmouth.

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:04 PM

2. Lonegan has about as much chance of winning that election as I do.

Monmouth is a different matter. If he breaks 40% he'll almost certainly win Monmouth.

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Response to nyquil_man (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:09 PM

3. I'm naturally a pessimist

Too many years as a campaign staffer will do that to you. And I'll admit I've barely followed the race (I'm in NC until January) but I knew who I was voting for in the primary and general before I left (primary, Pallone general whoever won the primary).

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:54 PM

6. Perhaps this will encourage you.

Booker's average share of the Dem+Rep+Other vote is 60.3%.

Menendez's average was 57.9% in 2012 and 51.2% in 2006. Lautenberg's (in 2008) was 56.3%.

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Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:14 PM

4. i said +25 long ago.

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:26 PM

5. I hope you were right.

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Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:19 AM

7. I don't think it will be that high

Definitely by double digits. I think Lonegan will draw at least 40%. I'll go Booker 58% Lonegan 40%, other 2%.

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:44 PM

8. That's not unreasonable, but I think 57% is Booker's floor.

Anything lower than that would surprise me.

Lonegan's polling is stronger now, sure, but does he have the operation to capitalize on it?

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Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:44 PM

9. 58-40. Christie, being the sob he is, put the election on a Wednesday, instead of the regular day.

Can Booker really get over 40% in Hunterdon County? It's white, wealthy, rural, and right wing. This is an off year election too.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:55 PM

10. That's why it's a county to watch.

If he's over 60% statewide, I think he would cross 40% in Hunterdon.

It's hard to tell, though, because there hasn't been a Senate candidate in Jersey who's crossed 60% in the last decade. Menendez, who received a little under 59% statewide, won 39% in Hunterdon, and Obama received over 40% there twice.

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Response to nyquil_man (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 02:00 PM

11. We'll watch it. Still, the teakooks are out in full force.

Hunterdon is full of them.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 02:54 PM

12. I went back and checked my figures.

In my worst case scenario, Booker would lose Hunterdon 60.5%-36.9%. That's with him getting 56.2% statewide.

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Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2013, 10:14 PM

13. But Lonegan says he's going to win.

After that Obama and Harry Reid are going to cave to the Republican's demands.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 14, 2013, 10:53 AM

14. he also had to turn to a quitter from Alaska for help

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