2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumState of EV in Nevada: HCR builds insurmountable lead
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/794616228103028736NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP).
==========================================
Consider this 2012 elections total votes casted were 1.1 out of those two counties amounted following totals:
Clark: 691,190 or 68.10% of total, Obama won by 100k votes
Washoe: 187,855 or 18.51% of total Obama won by 8k votes
Final: (Obama)531,373 (Romey)463,567 ... Difference is 67k votes
Total active voter registrations: 1,464,819 since Nov 04, 2016
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518
2012 turnout was 56% based elect project.org but we can probably get to 75% turnout this year which will amount to 1098614 votes, remaining votes are 398614 and Dem Lead is 42000
Trump need to win by 10.5% in pending votes on Election day to carry this election, this is exactly like what Jon Ralston pointed out:
Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 2h2 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Sam Stein
Not sure about that, but: Trump is not going to win NV by 10 points on Election Day. Not even a Jim Carrey in "Dumb and Dumber" chance.
I further have a hunch the Republicans are cannibalizing election day votes. which makes above task even more impossible.
DemKittyNC
(743 posts)tRump has to win Nevada to have any chance at winning, right? So basically he is just screwed? lol
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)votes left to cover the current lead.
DemKittyNC
(743 posts)way more happy to hear this! Going back to help people vote here in NC. I really do not see how we will not being going blue with all the huge amount of Dems voting early I have seen at many of the early voting places. =)
Persondem
(1,936 posts)MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)budkin
(6,682 posts)sunonmars
(8,656 posts)MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)sunonmars
(8,656 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)PA - Dem need to win Philly by 400k+ votes, in both 2008 and 2012 Obama won Philly by 460k votes.
MI - Dem need to win Wayne by 340k+ votes, in 2008 Obama won by 440k and 2012 by 380k votes
Rest state do matter but if you can out perform in above two counties, it will cushion weakness in any other area. There are enough votes in these counties to precisely do this.
former9thward
(31,683 posts)There is no "lead".
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)Plus 6% lead in EV came from Jon Ralston... I just extrapolated on that number and what is available on Nevada Elections website.
Dem2
(8,166 posts)But if Democrats don't get out strong on Nov 8th, we could be wondering what happened.
BlueProgressive
(229 posts)in Nevada!
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)ffr
(22,636 posts)You may be referencing Clark County only, which is shown as 1,018,301
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518
Might wish to correct that or adjust to reflect county reference.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)I will correct the post