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Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:14 PM

From a high of 87% last week to 75% just now HRC to win on 538......

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast Still ahead..... but gotta GOTV.

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Reply From a high of 87% last week to 75% just now HRC to win on 538...... (Original post)
a kennedy Oct 2016 OP
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #1
Lefthacker Oct 2016 #2
SaschaHM Oct 2016 #6
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #23
SaschaHM Oct 2016 #24
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #7
pnwmom Oct 2016 #17
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #22
Godhumor Oct 2016 #15
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #4
geek tragedy Oct 2016 #5
Foggyhill Oct 2016 #11
William769 Oct 2016 #16
geek tragedy Oct 2016 #18
William769 Oct 2016 #19
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #8
a kennedy Oct 2016 #9
Foggyhill Oct 2016 #10
Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #12
Joe941 Oct 2016 #13
misterhighwasted Oct 2016 #14
triron Oct 2016 #20
budkin Oct 2016 #21

Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:18 PM

1. counting FL ? I wouldn't even bother with 538 - false sense

of positive outcome. Light and dark blue she's got 272 (on cnn map) and based on polls. But, that's pretty tenative now too. CO only 1 point now.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:22 PM

2. Colorado

Is +5.

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Response to Lefthacker (Reply #2)


Response to SaschaHM (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:22 PM

23. Why wouldn't you look at a trend and the last poll if it's downward? Unless, of

course you are making a dig at people for being concerned - which I guess you are.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #23)


Response to Lefthacker (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:25 PM

7. real clear - last poll 1% - RCP Average 4% - But glad you found a better one

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:03 PM

17. The aggregates by the NYTimes, Huff Post, and 538 are all higher than RCP.

Makes me wonder what RCP does differently.

This was from last night:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512562988

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 04:20 PM

22. I was just talking Colorado

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:01 PM

15. You might want to ignore the Remington/Axiom polls completely

They're a Republican firm (Not leaning, as in actually a Republican firm) that robo-calls landlines only and has a history of push polling.

I rarely jump on pollsters as being awful considering what I do, but this is a form who polls to drive a narrative not to assess where things actually stand.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:23 PM

4. We could sure use that Rick Wilson "surprise" soon

Any more information or leaks on this? or is just a bunch of hype?

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:23 PM

5. Most likely scenario is Clinton winning with ~278 EV--more likely greater than less than that #

 

Not satisfying, but we're in "saving the future of the country" mode here so a win is a win.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:32 PM

11. Most like is hés full of crap and throwing darts

What he does is mostly informed opinion

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:02 PM

16. I'm still keeping Hillary at 341 EV.

I have not seen anything since Friday to change my mind.

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Response to William769 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:07 PM

18. I hope you are right and that I am embarrassingly wrong!

 

We'll see how early voting goes this week.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:12 PM

19. I have been registering voters & when that stopped, we went door to door

Day in & day out.

I truly believe Hillary is going to take this by a larger margin than most people are expecting. Could I be wrong? Of course! But I believe at the end of the day when the voting stops on November the 8th, we re going to be celebrating big time with a mandate!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:26 PM

8. Ha - just actually went up to 76.1

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:26 PM

9. and here's the Senate numbers.......

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:31 PM

10. Natr included shit polls and collects them all

In a non scientific way and they puts a god damn veneer of stat on top
Hes a bit full of himself

No voting model should vary as much as his

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:38 PM

12. 98% on PEC

Sam Wang has just as good of a record as Silver.

Still 90% on Upshot which takes both these sites and several others into consideration.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:48 PM

13. 538's methods are bit questionable. Just GOTV its the only poll that matters.

 

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 01:56 PM

14. Benckmark shows HRC at 86%-post Comey

Hillary HQ retweeted
Benchmark Politics
4h4 hours ago
Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol
Race is naturally tightening but first round of post-Comey polling shows no measurable impact on Clinton's chances. 86% likely Clinton wins.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:17 PM

20. OTOH Sam Wang still has HRC win at 99% bayesian

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 02:17 PM

21. It's because of Ohio and Florida shifting back to Trump, no big deal

She's still got it in the bag.

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