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jzodda

(2,124 posts)
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:16 PM Mar 2012

Will a 5-4 decision striking down the mandate help or hurt us for 2012?

What do you think? Will it demoralize the left or will it galvanize our side to come out in force in November?

Should Obama campaign against the 5 repukers on the Supreme Court if they strike down the mandate?

If we want to reform this law and possibly get a public option we need to also take back the House.

My gut is that if this should be struck down, after a period of shock and adjustment, it will actually help our side to get people interested in 2012.

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Will a 5-4 decision striking down the mandate help or hurt us for 2012? (Original Post) jzodda Mar 2012 OP
Probably little impact outside of an ego boost to conservatives for the GE DJ13 Mar 2012 #1
Perhaps it will force serious discussion of single payer/public option solutions... villager Mar 2012 #2
Why would it? Dems will run from health care for a long long time. JoePhilly Mar 2012 #18
hopefully Dokkie Mar 2012 #21
GOP would never remove the life time CAPs, nor would they require insurers to JoePhilly Mar 2012 #22
Life time caps can be taken care off with Dokkie Mar 2012 #23
It's an easy argument for POTUS to make: If well people aren't in the insurance pool, insurance... GodlessBiker Mar 2012 #3
Those are good arguments DJ13 Mar 2012 #4
arguing merits is a loser, an emotional buzz phrase is needed for this.... msongs Mar 2012 #11
hurt ... see my comment ... zbdent Mar 2012 #5
Will the rest of the law fall if the mandate is ruled unconstitutional? Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2012 #6
Thats the biggest question. quakerboy Mar 2012 #10
No severability clause is in ACA! Joe Bacon Mar 2012 #17
I think it will hurt. Don't see it helping... Drunken Irishman Mar 2012 #7
I guess it will come down to leftynyc Mar 2012 #8
Actually, it might come down to how many such people can afford to get that which is Bluenorthwest Mar 2012 #9
It hurts and it is not even close Cosmocat Mar 2012 #19
Striking it down will help quaker bill Mar 2012 #12
If only the mandate is struck down I think it will help Motown_Johnny Mar 2012 #13
The Republicans will not stick their necks out and repeal Healthcare reform or the mandate fightforfreedom123 Mar 2012 #14
Will hypothetical, irresponsible, "crystal ball" speculation help or hurt us in 2012? ClassWarrior Mar 2012 #15
Only correct answer: We have no clue. Mr.Turnip Mar 2012 #16
A Long Way To November... KharmaTrain Mar 2012 #20
James Carville: Court loss ‘best thing’ for Democrats jzodda Mar 2012 #24
I don't think it will matter much treestar Mar 2012 #25
Depends on our willingness to go for single payer - and also on messenging... polichick Mar 2012 #26
The Nilo The Angry Latino Show !!! NiloTheAngryLatino Mar 2012 #27
Hard to say. Forget about "just the mandate" though alwysdrunk Mar 2012 #28
I think we will still win just because of the stuff Romney says every day marlakay Mar 2012 #29
If it's 5-4 (and it will be, if the law is struck down) Arkana Mar 2012 #30
It will hurt BAD Cosmocat Mar 2012 #31

DJ13

(23,671 posts)
1. Probably little impact outside of an ego boost to conservatives for the GE
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:23 PM
Mar 2012

Thats my story, and I'm sticking to it.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
18. Why would it? Dems will run from health care for a long long time.
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 08:08 AM
Mar 2012

They will be terrified to go near it because of the potential for political fall out.

Meanwhile, the GOP will be claiming that if you can't mandate health insurance coverage, then the government should not be able to have a Medicare tax or a Social Security tax, using the overturn of ACA as the precedent.

 

Dokkie

(1,688 posts)
21. hopefully
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 08:48 AM
Mar 2012

It will cause them to run from every passing another mandate requiring us to buy anything from big corporations. As for the other parts of ACA, we all know that the other reforms all have very high favorability rating even amongst conservative.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
22. GOP would never remove the life time CAPs, nor would they require insurers to
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 09:11 AM
Mar 2012

cover those with pre-existing conditions, nor would they push for meaningful exchanges, and you will never see them support single payer or anything close to it.

 

Dokkie

(1,688 posts)
23. Life time caps can be taken care off with
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 09:31 AM
Mar 2012

reduction in healthcare cost but I dunno if it would be a good idea to charge people with pre existing condition same with healthy patients unless you have a mandate program where everyone has to sign up and again we run into the problem of mandates if we do that.

What we need is a more diversified insurance market where people can buy catastrophic healthcare plans. This way a person already treating his cancer can still buy insurance for say maybe a heart attack or stroke while he/she deals with their cancer. I know this is right wing talk but what is there to insure when the patient is already sick and the insurance covers everything like the insurance we have today?

GodlessBiker

(6,314 posts)
3. It's an easy argument for POTUS to make: If well people aren't in the insurance pool, insurance...
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:28 PM
Mar 2012

will only cover the sick and be expensive. In addition, the coverage for pre-exisitng conditions will have to be dropped, as well people will only seek coverage once they become sick; and those without insurance will cost us all a lot of money when they seek treatment they can't afford at emergency rooms.

Obama should push it.

DJ13

(23,671 posts)
4. Those are good arguments
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:41 PM
Mar 2012

Arguments that Obama should have made in trying to fund his HCR through a tax structure instead of the forced mandates.

If he had gone for a tax it probably couldnt be challenged in the USSC.

msongs

(67,199 posts)
11. arguing merits is a loser, an emotional buzz phrase is needed for this....
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 03:12 PM
Mar 2012

wordy discussions do little to promote anything except zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. repubs are great at soundbite catch phrases appealing to emotion, dems oughta try that strategy sometime

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,355 posts)
6. Will the rest of the law fall if the mandate is ruled unconstitutional?
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:50 PM
Mar 2012

If the whole law falls, that would be a pretty big body-blow to President Obama but then I imagine a lot of people are going to be asking, "what' now?" Once parents realize that their 18-26 year old son or daughter is dropped off of their insurance again, they (and their young adult children) probably won't be happy about that. When people realize that their preventative care and/or birth control is not going to be covered, they're not going to happy about that. This could end up being a bigger headache for Republicans then they might like to think IMHO. They won't have "Obamacare" to kick around anymore, so they'll lose one of their more potent issues against Democrats and President Obama and have no good ideas on how to make health care affordable, all the more ironic since "Obamacare" originally started out as "Republicancare".
if OTOH the mandate is invalidated but the rest of the law stands, then it shouldn't be too bad, particularly since it is the most despised part of the law. All of the other components of ACA will be fine. Fixing ACA will just be a matter of finding a legislative remedy for it, which shouldn't be rocket science. The big hurdle will be getting something through Congress by 2014, which will, of course, depend entirely on the makeup in Congress after this upcoming election.

quakerboy

(13,901 posts)
10. Thats the biggest question.
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 02:34 PM
Mar 2012

I am inclined to believe that the corporatists would prefer to keep the mandate and drop the rest of the law. But that seems most unlikely to be legally justifiable. So do they get their SCOTUS toadies to nuke the whole thing or do they let it stand.

If all we do is drop the mandate, but keep the rest of the law, that's the best outcome at this point. We still get all the benefits of Obama-care, without the major detriment. A few years of having their services regulated, their profit limited, and their denials denied, without the forced influx of new insurance purchasers to buoy the coffers, and the insurance companies might just be weak enough to pass a real care for all type legislation over their heads.

If they nuke the whole thing, its anyone's game. The media and the R's will do their collective best to lay the blame on Obama for passing something "unconstitutional", and will spend uncountable hours hammering that home with anyone still watching TV. And perception matters. But People are hurting in the current economy, and a newly unrestricted Insurance industry is not likely to sit back and let the chance to further gouge pass them by. Which is going to fly in the face of what the "news" is telling them. So what comes of that, I don't think its easily predictable.

Joe Bacon

(5,163 posts)
17. No severability clause is in ACA!
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 12:30 AM
Mar 2012

Which is why I expect the court to vote 5-4 to strike the law down stating that the mandate is unconstitutional, and since there is no severability clause, that will give them the excuse to strike the whole law down.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kennedy write in the majority opinion that people do not have a right to health care. That would erect a constitutional barrier to any health care reform and require a Constitutional amendment, which will never pass.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
7. I think it will hurt. Don't see it helping...
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 01:51 PM
Mar 2012

If it's struck down, it'll galvanize the right just as much the left because it will give them a victory and momentum to overcome their weak candidate. They'll be recharged and ready to battle the whole bill and, even though Romneycare was the blueprint for Obamacare, the fact he's now talking total repeal will help.

Liberals should be galvanized too, but that'll be a draw.

So, it comes down to the independents and that's where it hurts. If the SC rules against it, which it looks like they will do, Obama will be seen as an overreach president and that will hurt him with independent voters. It will be a blow to his campaign, his crowning achievement and suggest his polices aren't well thought out.

Would it cost him the election? I don't know. But it's not going to make his chances any better.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
8. I guess it will come down to
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 02:11 PM
Mar 2012

how may of those indepedents and their 18-26 yr old kids will find themselves without insurance again along with any idependents who have pre-existing conditions.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
9. Actually, it might come down to how many such people can afford to get that which is
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 02:32 PM
Mar 2012

'now there for them'.
As the President said of mandates as candidate,""If things were that easy, I could mandate everybody to buy a house and that would solve the problem of homelessness."

Cosmocat

(14,543 posts)
19. It hurts and it is not even close
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 08:31 AM
Mar 2012

end of the day the Rs ALWAYS drive the message.

They will scream that this proves that President Obama is a power hungry and engaging in unconstitutional acts.

It will give them cause to call him WEAKENED.

The media will GLADLY take these frames and run with it.

Ds in the House and Senate who are up for re-election will get as far from it as possible, because if they don't make clear statements against HCR reform, they will be SWAMPED with ads screaming "BACKED PRESIDENT OBAMAS POWER HUNGRY UNCONSTITUTIONAL POWER GRAB!"

It will be a "game changer" and people who think otherwise miss what they did to Clinton in the 90s, missed the way they drove the country into Iraq and politicized 9-11, missed the bizarre tea party nonsense and how they framed HCR as so horrible that it drove their big wins in 2010 ...

quaker bill

(8,223 posts)
12. Striking it down will help
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 05:29 PM
Mar 2012

which is probably why they will let it stand in deferrence to the "political process".

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
13. If only the mandate is struck down I think it will help
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 08:31 PM
Mar 2012

If you think back to 2008, Sen. Obama ran on doing health care reform without an individual mandate. I think he has political cover here.

The fact that the rest of the law is upheld will drive the teabaggers crazy. They just won't be able to understand it. Add to that the fact that the insurance companies will still lose the ability to deny coverage do to preexisting conditions and the big insurance companies are going to be pretty worried about their profit margins.

If Pres. Obama can work out some type of public option that covers those who don't want to buy insurance from a private company then he can run on it this cycle.


I honestly think the only thing that hurts us is if they decide to not render a decision until 2015. That just keeps the fight going and ending it is the best thing for us. Unless they try to strike down the entire law, then the backlash is going to be something the likes of which this country has not seen in decades.

 
14. The Republicans will not stick their necks out and repeal Healthcare reform or the mandate
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 11:19 PM
Mar 2012

Nope. Even the teabaggers and Paul supporters know this.

ClassWarrior

(26,316 posts)
15. Will hypothetical, irresponsible, "crystal ball" speculation help or hurt us in 2012?
Tue Mar 27, 2012, 11:48 PM
Mar 2012

Just sayin...

NGU.

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)
16. Only correct answer: We have no clue.
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 12:27 AM
Mar 2012

It might hurt us it might help us who the hell knows, we can't predict the future nor how people will react to things like this.

KharmaTrain

(31,706 posts)
20. A Long Way To November...
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 08:39 AM
Mar 2012

Firstly...this isn't an all or nothing deal. The court could strike down some of the AHCA but leave other parts. We won't know until Fat Tony and his cabal of activist judges get done with it.

The deal here is few see the advantages of the act and this administration has done a terrible job in selling it. People who are benefiting from it (young people) have no clue it is and those of us with policies have seen our premiums go up as the insurance companies gouge where and while they can. The right wing propaganda machine got out in front of this and have sold millions into how bad this bill was...assisted by those on this side of the sandbox who wanted a single payer system or no payer at all (yep...I ran into those who wanted healthcare to be FREE). Overall, few support this bill and that's driving the SCOTUS to play politics with it.

That said, the only way this matter endures to November is if there's a discussion about how electing a rushpublican will add more conservatives to the court that will result in the turning back of over a century of social legislation.

The economy has and will be front and center in November...if things are perceived to be bad Obama loses. AHCA will have little impact on that...

jzodda

(2,124 posts)
24. James Carville: Court loss ‘best thing’ for Democrats
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 04:41 PM
Mar 2012

Here's an interesting quote from the article

“Just as a professional Democrat, there’s nothing better to me than overturning this thing 5-4 and then the Republican Party will own the health care system for the foreseeable future. And I really believe that. That is not spin,” Carville said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74577.html#ixzz1qRj5fZiI

I don't know if I agree with him but he makes some good arguments.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
25. I don't think it will matter much
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 05:45 PM
Mar 2012

Nobody seems to be passionately for this law - and those passionately against likely aren't great in number. If they are passionately against it from left or right, their votes are not going to change. They'll just gloat.

polichick

(37,152 posts)
26. Depends on our willingness to go for single payer - and also on messenging...
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 05:49 PM
Mar 2012

Dems haven't been so great on either so far.

alwysdrunk

(915 posts)
28. Hard to say. Forget about "just the mandate" though
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 06:44 PM
Mar 2012

The mandate is what brings in the money from healthy people who can afford to pay. That money is what will pay for all of the new coverage and entitlements. If the mandate goes and everything else stays as it is, the insurance companies would be bankrupt in a couple of years. With nothing to replace it with, we'd all be screwed.

Single payer may happen one day, but it won't happen soon enough to make this work with no mandate.

marlakay

(11,370 posts)
29. I think we will still win just because of the stuff Romney says every day
Wed Mar 28, 2012, 06:48 PM
Mar 2012

like today making a joke about his dad closing a factory!

But the ruling will affect so many people healthwise and is very sad day for america since single payer will never pass with our politicians accepting money from the medical corps.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
30. If it's 5-4 (and it will be, if the law is struck down)
Thu Mar 29, 2012, 09:29 AM
Mar 2012

it galvanizes both sides. The right gets to jump and cheer that they REPEALED OBUMMERCARE, but then they'll get blindsided by people who are pissed that all the good parts of the bill are gone as well.

The left (at least some of it) will be dispirited for a while, but something like this creates a tribalistic feeling. What little of Obama's base that isn't behind him will come home.

Cosmocat

(14,543 posts)
31. It will hurt BAD
Thu Mar 29, 2012, 09:43 AM
Mar 2012

I think people are losing sight of how the "liberal" media channels right wing messaging because the media has been let out of its box during the primary.

Because Romney is a the establishment candidate for the Rs, but is so untrusted/disliked by the "base" the full weight of the party has been behind him. This has allowed the media to break the first cardinal rule - to never deride republicans and always find a way to mitigate their negatives.

But, by the time this is ruled, Romney will be the full presumptive candidate.

AND, the Rs will be the Rs - looking for an anchor to pound away on their messaging.

If this gets repealed, they WILL scream "THIS PROVES OBAMA IS POWER HUNGRY AND TRAMPLING ON THE CONSTITUTION."

That will be what the media channels, along with the meme "OBAMA IS WEAKENED."

Not only will the media be cow towed by the Rs in full like it always is, this will serve the purpose making the presidential a true horse race.

Things have stabilized now to where Obama is on track for a solid, not landslide by any means, but comfortable win.

A repeal of HCR changes the whole tone of the race.

They WILL run on him being power hungry, unconstitutional and weak.

The media will GLADLY get behind that.

The oblivious general mass of voters will get moved along with that.

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