A calm,cool,rational,detailed look at the near impossibility of a Trump win (even w/ mass damage
from idiot weak voters over Comey's email stunt)
I have been working on this for days. I can set the range right now for the entire Election. the LOWEST possible EV total for Clinton is 268 (2 scenarios) and 269 (4 scenarios), Trump has ONE scenario to 270, and then 2 at 269, 1 at 264, and 2 at 263 EV's. In all 5 non 270's, it goes to the Repub House who would have to vote him POTUS.
There is EXACTLY ONE way, yes ONE path for Trump to 270 and outright win. There are only 5 other ways for Hillary to NOT hit 270 and thus toss the POTUS choice to the House (probably Trump wins, but chaos could ensue, and THAT is beyond the scope of this post)
All 6 scenarios involve just 4 things
A Utah (will be either Trump or McMullin, and ONLY MATTER in ONE scenario (the 270 outright Trump win, it is MEANINGLESS in ALL other scenarios because it will have zero effect on HILLARY's EV's)
B Nebraska 2nd district (Obama won it, thus gaining one vote in 2008, and Hillary has a shot at it again)
C Maine 2nd District (Trump has lead thruout for its one split EV)
D New Hampshire... the simplest one, IF TRUMP loses NH, there is NO path, if my 4 Blue Wall states below hold.
I start out by laying out the 4 "Blue Wall states" that Sec Clinton is up in so high there is basically no way she can lose them, even if there is a bad blowback from the combined onslaught of the Foundation leaks plus the new Comey bullshit partisan October surprise (he is a fucking traitor)
These 4 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia (the newest entry to the Blue Wall, yay) and then the shakiest, but still in the bag one, Pennsylvania. In all 4 she has a 85% (91% in VA) or higher shot at winning and other than PA, is probably near a double digit lead.
So now we move to ALL the other states Trump HAS to SWEEP in order for my pathways to even be considered, he WILL NOT, NOT NOT sweep all these, but again, I am giving them ALL to Trump to show you how hard it is for him to win EVEN with all these.
Trump MUST SWEEP:
NEVADA
ARIZONA
TEXAS
IOWA
MISSOURI
INDIANA
OHIO
FLORIDA
GEORGIA
NORTH CAROLINA
ALASKA
he loses ANY, any one
its impossible for Clinton to not hit 270 and thus win. No way will he sweep those, but lets just say he does
now here the only 6 scenarios left, literally
and
ALL these include NEW HAMPSHIRE going to Trump (by far the state out of all those he is doing the worst in) He loses NH, he is also toast.
If Hillary takes Nebraska 2nd district and Trump loses Maine 2nd, he is toast too
The only 270 Trump scenario
Clinton 268 Trump 270 Utah Trump ME only split Only Way Trump wins outright
now the "House elects Trump" ones
Clinton 269 Trump 269 Utah Trump NE ME Both split
Clinton 269 Trump 269 Utah Trump NE ME no split
Clinton 268 Trump 264 Utah McMullin only ME split
Clinton 269 Trump 263 Utah McMullin NE ME both split
Clinton 269 Trump 263 Utah McMullin NE ME no splits
There you have it, EVERY even remotely possible way Trump could win,
He literally needs to sweep every state listed except Utah, PLUS win New Hampshire, PLUS win ME 2nd district IF Hillary wins NE 2nd district.
THERE is less than a 1% chance ALL this goes his way.
My prediction
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