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Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:18 AM

Sorry Luntz, but it's not Il Douche Herr Gropenfuror that's the problem

Frank Luntz is still pushing the idea that this was a 'slam dunk' year for the Republicans
Yes, folks! A slam dunk. And it seemed so much a slam dunk too.
A slam dunk in the same sense that this 52-year old 5'8" person could slam dunk over LeBron James.
Slim... None... Slim Left Town

Trump is just the climax of this 30+ year show the Republicans have been running and this year wouldn't have been a slam dunk even if everyone left the court and gave the fictional Republican candidate a ladder to climb to drop the ball in the basket

Here's why. The numbers do not add up
For the most part, the Republicans have won about 22 to 24 states over the past decade-and-a-half (please note, most part. I realize Obama won NC and Indiana once). It's not a bad number of states, but here's the problem, when you remove Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana and Tennessee from the list, none of the other states have more than 9 electoral votes. Total EV 115
5 of those states (MT, WY, SD, ND, AK) have only 3. Idaho has 4 and Nebraska and West Virginia have 5.

Even if the Republicans were to win all 24 of those states, that's 206 EV

Let's say they hold all those states and win Iowa and Ohio (that's about as rosy a picture as they can get) 230 EVs

The Democrats have won CA, NY, NJ, IL, PA MI, WI, MN, WA, MA and MD in every election this century (4 to be exact).
Every one of those states has double-digit EV: Total 207. Pretty hefty number against your 115
Throw in Hawaii, Oregon, Colorado, NM, the entire northeast and DC that's 254
Now, only Florida, Virginia and Nevada are left
Nevada become irrelevant as it doesn't push either over the top

But if the Republican wins all 3, he has 281 EVs. That's 9 more than he needs to win. 3 states that voted Obama both times.
But, your guy has to win both Virginia and Florida to win
Unlikely at best

Even without Trump at the head of their ticket; Cruz, Kasich or Bush, would be a very tall order for them to win the White House and it would be by a very narrow margin at best.
Sorry, Mr. Luntz, with or without Trump, your party would get a slam dunk the same way you'd get one in a 1:1 vs Charles Barkley or Stephen Curry

For thirty years you catered to a dwindling demographic and now, you're in very deep trouble

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Reply Sorry Luntz, but it's not Il Douche Herr Gropenfuror that's the problem (Original post)
rpannier Oct 2016 OP
UCmeNdc Oct 2016 #1
JHB Oct 2016 #2
spooky3 Oct 2016 #3
rpannier Oct 2016 #4
spooky3 Oct 2016 #8
Mr. Ected Oct 2016 #5
Thrill Oct 2016 #6
Gabi Hayes Oct 2016 #7

Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:36 AM

1. Luntz tries to act like it is only Trumpism. No it is Republicanism that is the problem.

Trump just pumped up the GOP message, made it his own, and pushed it until he whipped the GOP followers into a frenzy.

Now the GOP leadership cowers and hides in the corner from their own monster called Trumpism.

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Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:41 AM

2. More than 30 years...

Conservatives have gained power over the last 50-60 years by using fearmongering and targeted bigotry to pad their numbers in the service of tax cuts and deregulation.

People like William F. Buckley and his National Review crowd worked to sideline the John Birch Society as the public face of conservatism, while not alienating the JBS rank and file so much that the Birchers wouldn't vote for their preferred candidates.

Nixon added the Southern Strategy. In the 70's they started promoting single-issue voting on hot-button issues in order to help break up the Democratic coalition. By the 90's Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh had mainstreamed extravagant loathing of liberals and Democrats, making compromise on policy an act of treachery against Real Conservatism. Treating Democrats as traitors became a rallying cry.

To enact more inclusive populist economic policies, we have to break up the conservative phalanx that blocks even small items. And part of doing that is to not let them wash their hands of Trump. Trump just slapped his name on a building they had already built.

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Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:44 AM

3. He has zero chance of winning in VA this year

unless aliens transport Hillary to Mars.

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 08:14 AM

4. I realize that

My point is, their claim of, "It should have been a slam dunk." does not hold water when you look at the electoral map.
They have to win practically everything that's marginal or within the realm of minutiae possibility to even eek out a tiny win

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Response to rpannier (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 12:34 PM

8. completely agree

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Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 08:23 AM

5. The GOP Post-Mortem in 2012 concluded the Republican Party needed to connect with new demographics

They knew the score 4 years ago; they knew it was time to huddle up and call a new play.

Instead, they ran the same play, with inferior players, that they'd run before.

Luntz is simply dissembling. This game was lost before it began. Instead of listening to the voice of reason, they listened to the fans...and hopefully will get their asses handed to them on November 8th.

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Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:03 AM

6. The sitting President is rocking a 57% Approval Rating

And it was a slam dunk for The opposing party? When Congress is sporting at 30% approval? The Congress which is run by the opposing party?

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Response to rpannier (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:17 AM

7. is he still working for CBS?

 

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