Hillary has a 93% chance of winning according to the NY Times

[minivan2]

She has 272 Electoral votes locked in, that includes Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin. If you toy around with the path to victory thing at the bottom of the page you can see that Trump has to win at the very least 6 states to win, and some of those have Hillary with a more than 80% chance of winning.


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

[PoliticAverse]

1. If she had 272 electoral votes "locked in" already she would have near 100% chance of winning. n/t

Last edited Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:39 PM - Edit history (1)

[triron]

2. Election consortium (Princeton) has HRC win at 99% bayesian

97% random drift.

Predictwise 91%

Benchmark 94%

[bluestateguy]

3. Virginia and Colorado are the firewall

in case Ohio and/or Iowa don't work out.

And the firewall is holding.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Been following this every day

Basically, in order to win he has to sweep all the close states, win FL, and then win a state that is currently at least 94% for Hillary. He has no chance.

[triron]

5. 538 is far below any of the other predictors (~86%)!!

wtf??